Canada General Discussion (2019-)

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This is scummy, but the Greens themselves accepted a defecting MP, so they have no grounds to complain here.

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Scheer had a great opportunity in 2019. Trudeau's main weakness with moderate LPC-CPC swing voters was the perception of corruption that resulted from SNC. Scheer could have made that campaign about increasing accountability, strengthening lobbying rules, or at least being more transparent about the government's dealings with corporations. What kind of policies he would put forward, or whether they would be effective, are completely immaterial as long as people believed that he could succeed where Trudeau failed.

SNC was a very tricky weapon. Using it was toxic in Quebec (SNC going down meant 10000 persons losing their jobs) and there was a counter-argument that EU countries makes deals like that all the time and that Canada refusing to do so was putting European businesses in front of Canadian ones. I think it's less damaging to look corrupt than anti-Canadian business.

The Conservatives used SNC as proof that the Liberals were coddling Quebec at Alberta's expense again.

"They gave SNC a pass to save Quebec jobs, while wanting to shut down Alberta tar sands" was the line they repeated, even when Scheer refused to explain how he would have handled SNC differently. It was completely dishonest, which was fitting, given Scheer's own dishonesty about himself.

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A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

What ridings have a large progressive population AND a large right wing populist population for that to happen though?

Back of the envelope, I can find Calgary Confederation, Edmonton Griesbach, and Edmonton Mill Woods.

It would require both a bad Conservative campaign and a disappointing NDP performance for these right-wing splits to lead to a Liberal win, though.

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https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-tells-canadians-parliament-is-dysfunctional-fueling/?cmpid=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Paywalled, but the headline says it all really.

We've seen this before. A leader of a minority government saying "parliament is dysfunctional" is just one step removed from calling an election.

I envy Britain for passing a law requiring a 2/3 majority approval in the Commons before an early election can be called. Maybe a 2/3 majority is excessive, but there should at least be a failed vote of confidence before an election can be called.

Which, in a minority parliament, would lead to the hilarious spectacle of the governing party declaring a lack of confidence in itself, but the opposition parties declaring confidence in the government.

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From my personal experience, it was obvious that something like this was coming. So I was not surprised one tiny bit at the specific discoveries.

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A number of churches, some on reserves, have been vandalized or burned. This, during a record-shattering heat wave. Anyone who lives on the land knows how incredibly dangerous this is, and anyone who lives on the reserve knows that many band members actually use the churches. I won't be surprised one bit if it turns out the arsonists aren't even from the band or aren't even indigenous.

The Prime Minister and other politicians should denounce these acts, and announce the government will rebuild the structures if the band approves.

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That's fair enough, I can't say I know much about how actual First Nations people feel about this beyond what I've read in the media (more often than not, there tends to be quite a diversity of opinions) so I could be wrong about the tone deaf part.

From my personal experience, I know that many indigenous people are very attached to Christianity, and the Church is an integral part of their lives when they're on the reserve. It's when they move to cities, that they often try to connect to the church, that the institutional church (with some notable exceptions) struggles to reach out to them.

The media isn't listening to these people, and it's almost as if indigenous people are worth listening to only if they validate pre-existing beliefs, and otherwise they should keep quiet and know their place. It's the same racism, with only the prevailing ideology of the white saviours being different.

On another note, Catholic churches in western Canada are increasingly dominated by immigrants from the Philippines, the Middle East, Latin America, India, and other such places. In Ontario, it's less so, but only because there are plenty more "European ethnic Catholics". The same goes with newly ordained clergy. Attacks on the church will be seen as attacks on these racial minority groups. That's where (and this is the same in the other English-speaking settler countries) the woke, white left become their own worst enemies. They claim to be fighting for racial minority groups, who instead feel patronized and alienated, which causes the woke, white left to ridicule them, because they genuinely can't understand why anyone would hold "backward" beliefs.

In Canada, this will probably result in the probable next Liberal leader, who herself is a practicing Catholic, quietly shifting the party away from Trudeau's wokeness. The Conservatives could make progress with this demographic, but will struggle as long as it's associated with nasty types.

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Raised Ukrainian Catholic, and she did quote from the Book of Jonah at a virtual town hall past December. That means she knows her stuff.

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There has been a spate of church burnings, and that has a very dark history in this part of the world. It took eight churches to burn before Trudeau stated these acts are unacceptable.

I think this guy is a jerk, but I agree with him here:

https://twitter.com/kinsellawarren/status/1410324914427604992

These arson attacks are getting a backlash from many moderate types, who are often not religious at all. They recognize these as a threat to public order, and Trudeau's slow response as emboldening these attacks. For someone like Trudeau, being accused of neglecting public order will be lethal, far more than attacks about socks, selfies, SNC Lavalin, or WE.

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https://twitter.com/Siksika_Nation/status/1410795843100155906?s=19

A Caucasian male has been arrested as a suspected arsonist. This was on a reserve where a church was burned. I won't jump into conclusions, but it's fitting into my gut feeling.

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Maybe Carney will be told to run in Carleton in order to boost his credibility.

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I think a lot of people would enjoy seeing a Carney-Poilievre race.

Interesting, yes, but not the kind of race you throw a political rookie into if your intention is to get him into a cabinet role asap

OTOH, they can't make Ignatieff's mistake and just gift him a safe seat.

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She doesn't speak french but is from Quebec. Going to be weird trying to see quebecer try to attack her for not knowing the language despite creating the schools that didn't teach it to her.

The Inuit people of northern Quebec had their first contact with Europeans through the Hudson's Bay Company, and not the French settlers of the St. Lawrence Valley. Most of their interaction with European settlers was in English.

The First Nations people from "core" Quebec also strongly opposed Quebec separation for other historical reasons, but that's a tangent.

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Minor nitpick, it wasn't Maggie who privatized the British railways. She even said that doing so would be the Waterloo of her government.

Specifically in Canada, the Liberal Party - like the UK Tories - have a talent for shape-shifting in response to changes in public opinion. It's definitely plausible that the Liberal Party would adopt ideas that we currently see as "conservative" in order to maintain its winning coalition.

I can see the Liberals reducing immigration numbers while coaching it as protecting the supply of housing to Canadians - as done by the New Zealand Labour Party. On social issues, I could see them adopting a skeptical tone towards transgender issues - coaching it as protecting women's rights. It's certainly plausible that the Liberals would push for a big increase in military spending - coached as protecting freedom in an increasingly dangerous world. Hence, the Liberals will have adopted positions we see as conservative, while coaching them in progressive language.

At least that's one benefit of having a natural governing party. The one party can always quietly shift its positions to dominate the mushy middle who (in a healthy democracy) decide things.

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And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

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https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1417930313204895750

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He managed to whip his caucus on the conversion therapy bill, but it seems a good chunk of Tory voters didn't appreciate that, in addition to his general moderating approach (and the fact that it didn't win them the election).

I struggle to see who could replace him. If he so chooses, Poilievre could sink O'Toole singlehandedly. In effect, Pierre Poilievre is the spiritual leader of the CPC, but I get the sense that Poilievre would rather play kingmaker than actually go for the big job, because he probably realizes that the persona he's built over his career is unlikely to go over well in a general. No other member of the CPC caucus seems particularly notable - Lisa Raitt could have been a good leader, but that ship has sailed.

Outside caucus, honestly, it feels like Doug Ford is the closest thing to a natural CPC leader. But between his habit of constantly making the news for all the wrong reasons, having a provincial election ahead of him, and not speaking French, he's not an option. Honestly, O'Toole might stay on just by default which does not speak well to the health of the conservative movement in this country.

Edit: I would add that Gerard Deltell and Alain Rayes are good options from Quebec, but a Francophone Quebecer is unlikely to win the CPC leadership, and I think they realize that.

This might be the best case scenario for the Liberals. Erin O'Toole is now both weakened, but not too weak that his leadership is in danger. As long as this is the case, the Conservative identity crisis will drag on, and allow the Liberals to govern as if they had a majority.

Of course, Liberals governing with a majority, or if they had a majority, for an extended period inevitably leads to their trademark Natural Governing Party arrogance, but that's another issue.

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I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

The problem is that we don't know what is "normal" with Erin O'Toole, since shifting to the middle alienated the party base, and chances are he will be busy putting out fires on the right flank as long as he's leader. He hasn't found a way to convincingly respond to the social wedge issues that the right flank keep gifting to the Liberals on a silver plate.

IF the Liberals become as unpopular as the OLP under Kathleen Wynne, they might win regardless of their internal troubles, but we're a long way from there.

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Are we really a long way from there? The affordability crisis is real, and there’s not much any government will ever be able to do with it, because out-of-reach real estate prices are a feature of the system, not a bug of the system. We are going to have a lot of pissed off people very soon. Add in a never-ending pandemic that Trudeau needs to keep deferring to the scientists on because it’s his brand, and people will be pissed. Trudeau is going to be backed into a corner on the pandemic in a way O’Toole will not be. O’Toole can be the alternative to out-of-touch Liberal elitism.

The Trudeau Liberals have been hovering at about 30-40% approval for years, and have still won elections due to weak Conservative leadership. The OLP won re-election for this same reason: Tim Hudak came across as a used car salesman who couldn't restrain the nutcases in his party. The OLP, in its final years, had an approval rate well below 30%, and were stuck with a parade of scandals.

We're well overdue for rising interest rates and a real estate crash in the coming years. That's definitely a vulnerability for the Liberals, but Canadian governments have been able to brush off the political costs of recessions by claiming that Canada is too small and globalized for Ottawa to control the economy. Even better, they can claim that a recession means we need steady and crisis-tested leadership.

As for the pandemic, that has been if anything a boon for the Trudeau Liberals. People like the warm, fuzzy feeling he gives during a time of crisis, as well as the concrete help he has given. It also helps that the Conservatives are infested with anti-vaxxers and other nutcases. The Liberals have very cleverly backed O'Toole into a corner on the pandemic, by proposing a vaccine mandate to enter Parliament, which O'Toole wouldn't support, but won't explain why. Also, just today, the Liberals and NDP announced their MPs will be forbidden from leaving the country during the holiday period, while the Conservatives refused to follow suit. As long as the pandemic is still a thing, the Liberals will happily use it as a wedge issue.

If I had to propose one, I think Patrick Brown would be a better Conservative Party leader. He's popular in precisely those demographics the Conservatives need to win, and he did moderate the PCPO while leader. His political comeback as Brampton mayor is going strong, and he's actively seeking the national political limelight with an open call to challenge Quebec's Bill 21. He'd be an excellent equivalent to David Cameron.

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Canadian citizen Denise Ho was arrested in Hong Kong on "seditious publication" charges. She is a pop star turned pro-democracy activist, who also served on the board of The Stand News, one of Hong Kong's few non-CCP influenced news outlets.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/29/denise-ho-the-cantopop-star-and-pro-democracy-activist-arrested-in-hong-kong

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My god, O'Toole is scrambling. I really did like him and defended him for some time after the election (in fact, while I voted Liberal, my views have been shifting to the right and I would have been comfortable voting Conservative, only made up my mind last-minute). But his inability to stake out a clear position on anything is really starting to sour me on the guy, and a lot of other Canadians if leadership approval polls are any indicator. The CPC could go into yet another leadership race, god help us

https://twitter.com/AndrewScheer/status/1485731133404889090

His predecessor is delusional enough to think he can get his old job back.

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Give me 100 people organizing on any issue and I'll be able to find the 3 idiots and get them to talk portraying the group in the worst light possible. The larger the group, the easier to find idiots. It's one way how the media gaslights the public.

For a protest that's all about restarting the economy and restoring freedom, they didn't respect the thousands of retail and restaurant workers who lost hours, or the local business owners who lost customers, or the local residents who endured their honking and diesel exhaust. It's far beyond a few idiots with Nazi and Confederate flags. The group itself is a nuisance, and in any other context, would have been ordered to disperse long ago.

I think convoy probably helps Trudeau at least in short term.  Yes some will say calling these people fringe unhelpful but I think many tired of anti-vaxxers.  Tories are in tough spot as support this and risk alienating the key centrist swing voters or oppose this and risk seeing more on right flank going over to PPC.

I think long term it would be in their interest to say like most of us they are tired of pandemic and would like to find a way to remove restrictions as soon as possible.  But at same time this is not way and likewise getting vaccinated is still the best way to help return us to normal.

Erin O'Toole is deader than a dodo. He alienated both the party base and the centrist swing voters during last September's election, and his conduct since then hasn't helped matters. A gaggle of the party's hard-core names are now running their own show without the leader's involvement, and Pierre Poilievre has all but declared himself leader. Elsewhere, I'm sure the CPC and PPC will begin to converge in the polls. What that results in is anyone's guess.

Regardless what else happens, it's certain that we'll be in the same situation as the UK and Denmark no later than the Spring. No one enjoys the restrictions, and we all want them lifted ASAP.

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Oh dear...

https://twitter.com/Travisdhanraj/status/1488323446044073984

https://twitter.com/Travisdhanraj/status/1488324270988140545

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The police are removing the blockade at the Alberta/Montana border, and are making arrests. Jason Kenney is the next politician to suffer a leopard-ate-face death. He supported the convoy that was headed to Ottawa, but didn't realize another convoy would block the border crossing. The wingnut base of the UCP support the blockade, while the business wing of the party were suffering due to it.

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Now the Rideau Centre will be closed for an entire week. That will cost thousands of retail workers a huge chunk of their income while a bunch of good for nothing scum are terrorizing local residents. It's high time to seek an injunction and order them out, and give them a 30 minute warning before the tear gas flies.

Congratulations, conservatives. You made the left seize the mantle of law-and-order.