Spanish elections and politics

[Oryxslayer]

Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?

That poll kinda is a high point for the PSOE, so lets get that out of the way. But if the election was held today? Nope. Podemos on 15% means only about 50 seats, and PSOE needs to get well above 30% to see 125+ seats. Plus about half of the PSOE gains are coming at the expense of Podesmos.

If an election were held today based on the present polling the resulting government would be some combination of PP, PSOE, or C's. Its been like this for a while. If this poll is the resulting government would probably be PSOE around 105-115 plus C's around 62-67.

Of course, once we get on the campaign trail things might change.

[Former President tack50]

Could there be a PSOE-Podemo government?

That poll kinda is a high point for the PSOE, so lets get that out of the way. But if the election was held today? Nope. Podemos on 15% means only about 50 seats, and PSOE needs to get well above 30% to see 125+ seats. Plus about half of the PSOE gains are coming at the expense of Podesmos.

If an election were held today based on the present polling the resulting government would be some combination of PP, PSOE, or C's. Its been like this for a while. If this poll is the resulting government would probably be PSOE around 105-115 plus C's around 62-67.

Of course, once we get on the campaign trail things might change.

From some seat extrapolation's I've seen, this poll would predict a very bare majority (176) between PSOE, Podemos and PNV. That is a viable combination but of course this is a high point

[Velasco]

Polls reflect a moment in time. At the beginning of July rhe PSOE was high, while the other parties were low for different reasons. The conventions of the PP and the PDeCAT at the end of July saw the victory of radicals in the Spanish Right and in Catalan separatism. On the one hand, Pablo Casado is implementing a tough and merciless opposition style, unashamedly resorting to demagoguery. Casado's claims on the supposed "call effect" that would be attracting illegal immigrants to Spanish coast, or the claims on alleged concessions to separatists are in this hard line. On the other hand, Puigdemont is unwilling to make things easy for Sánchez and is less ready for dialogue and cooperation than PDeCAT moderates. The government lost an important vote in Congress, when Podemos we and nationalists denied their support for a more relaxed expenditure target. It's hard to understand, when the EU Commission allowed more expenditure and the new target would have been a relief for regional governments, including Catalonia. Catalan nationalists argued that PP has a majority in Senate, but that could be overturned. In short, the government will have a very hard time to pass a budget. In case of snap election, I think neither the left nor the right would have a majority. Grand Coalition or PSOE-Cs seem very unlikely. Don't forget the undergoing investigation of the Casado's master degree. There will be new developments soon.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Casado had their first meeting

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/08/03/inenglish/1533288882_522322.html

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[Oryxslayer]

Polls reflect a moment in time. At the beginning of July rhe PSOE was high, while the other parties were low for different reasons. The conventions of the PP and the PDeCAT at the end of July saw the victory of radicals in the Spanish Right and in Catalan separatism. On the one hand, Pablo Casado is implementing a tough and merciless opposition style, unashamedly resorting to demagoguery. Casado's claims on the supposed "call effect" that would be attracting illegal immigrants to Spanish coast, or the claims on alleged concessions to separatists are in this hard line. On the other hand, Puigdemont is unwilling to make things easy for Sánchez and is less ready for dialogue and cooperation than PDeCAT moderates. The government lost an important vote in Congress, when Podemos we and nationalists denied their support for a more relaxed expenditure target. It's hard to understand, when the EU Commission allowed more expenditure and the new target would have been a relief for regional governments, including Catalonia. Catalan nationalists argued that PP has a majority in Senate, but that could be overturned. In short, the government will have a very hard time to pass a budget. In case of snap election, I think neither the left nor the right would have a majority. Grand Coalition or PSOE-Cs seem very unlikely. Don't forget the undergoing investigation of the Casado's master degree. There will be new developments soon.

Maybe I am wrong here (you always can be watching from outside the nation) but the only sicking point between a PSOE-C's coalition is the Catalan issue - a C's red line. The two parties talked and attempted a government pact in the 2015-2016 crisis period, but it fell apart because C's and Podemos are polar opposites and refuse to support each other. There are a lot of stuff that both parties agree on, and other policies that as shown by 2015/16, are not hard to compromise on. If the numbers support a PSOE-C's government without any minor parties (or a PP-C's government if the situation flips), then I suspect it will be pursued by both parties. 

[Velasco]

I wouldn't rule out the possibility, but I think that PSOE and Cs are much more distanced now than two years ago. Cs has shifted ostensibly to the right in order to catch all the PP vote. The Albert Rivera party has been always very hard line on Catalonia, but now oranges have to compete with Casado and that implies even more toughness. While PSOE favors dialogue on order to reestablish institutional relationship between central and regional governments (without making concessions on independence referendum or right to self-determination), PP and Cs are against talking with separatists. Both parties in the right are equally radical on this matter. Possibly PSOE and Cs can find some coincidences on policies and their deal in 2016 proves that, but Rivera's rhetoric against this government is so harsh that it's hard to imagine a new arrangement. But who knows, things can evolve in any direction.

[Velasco]

The Guardian: Spanish Right whips up fears as migration surge hits Andalusian shores. New rightwing party leaders are convinced that immigration will be a vote-winner, but on the front line in Algeciras there is more frustration than alarm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/05/spain-rightwing-parties-spar-immigration-surge-boats

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The sudden ignition of the debate on immigration in Spain by PP and Cs has raised alarms in Brussels. According to El País, a shivering attack hits the European Commission seat in Berleymont building. Spain, Portugal and Ireland remain as the countries in Europe lacking a far-right anti-immigration party in parliament. The fear is that, once the fear on immigration is fuelled, it's very difficult to put out the fire. EU is in a state of extreme fragility and is threatened by the rise of far-right populism. It cannot afford to lose Spain, as it happened with Italy. It's too early to say if Casado and Rivera are going to pursue this populist course of action, or they will tone down their calls to fear.

[Velasco]

Judge investigating master irregularities at Juan Carlos I University brings the case to the Supreme Court, suspecting that the Casado's degree was "given for free". Parlamentarians in Spain are "aforados" (they have a special legal status) and must be investigated by the Supreme Court, not by ordinary courts. Casado stated that he won't resign in case there is a formal investigation against him. Pedro Sanchez simply said that Casado should be accountable to Spanish citizens. Podemos demands that Casado resigns, while a Cs spokesman said the situation of the PP leader is "serious".

[Former President tack50]

Apparently La Razon did a recient poll on the monarchy and republicanism in Spain. The biggest question: "Should Spain become a republic?" saw a 64% no, 27% yes split; but with a massive age gap: Young people (under 35) support a republic by a 48-40 margin while everyone else supports the monarchy overwhelmingly

The related "Should a referendum on monarchy/republic be called" saw a similar result (32-62 overall) and a similar age gap (young people support it 52-44, everyone else doesn't want a referendum 28-64)

Other questions include the fact that both king Felipe VI and former queen Sofía have very positive approval ratings, while both former king Juan Carlos I and current queen Leticia are underwater (though still far better approval ratings than any politician; for comparison, Pedro Sánchez himself is at a 4/10 and Rajoy was at a 3.3/10 before being ousted)

Here's the full poll





Of course there's no way the monarchy is going away unfortunately; as it's extremely protected in the constitution. Getting rid of the monarchy would require a "severe" constitutional reform of Title II (which requires 2/3 of both chambers, snap elections, 2/3 again and a referendum)

The only time I ever saw a reform of Title II considered at all was when Leticia was pregnant with her second child. Had she had a boy, under current law the heir to the throne would be the boy, not Leonor (the older sibling). The reform would have removed the preference for boys from the constitution. Of course, since she had another girl the reform was shelved as it was unnecessary, but if for some reason she had a son (which probably isn't happening) I guess we would see more debates on the monarchy.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What was the changes in healthcare system which PP government implemented in 2012. As I can see PSOE now is claiming that they succeeded in reverting them and I wonder what was that about.

[Former President tack50]

What was the changes in healthcare system which PP government implemented in 2012. As I can see PSOE now is claiming that they succeeded in reverting them and I wonder what was that about.

From what I can tell it was basically cuts. There was a 10 000 million € cut early in Rajoy's tenure and healthcare investments are still lower than in 2009, both as a % of GDP and in total. There have also been increases in waiting lists for treatments.

The only "change" Rajoy brought was that illegal inmigrants wouldn't be allowed to use healthcare other than for emergency purposes. However reverting that was one of the earliest measures taken by the Sánchez government so maybe other than fully implementing it I don't know what they can do.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What was the changes in healthcare system which PP government implemented in 2012. As I can see PSOE now is claiming that they succeeded in reverting them and I wonder what was that about.

From what I can tell it was basically cuts. There was a 10 000 million € cut early in Rajoy's tenure and healthcare investments are still lower than in 2009, both as a % of GDP and in total. There have also been increases in waiting lists for treatments.

The only "change" Rajoy brought was that illegal inmigrants wouldn't be allowed to use healthcare other than for emergency purposes. However reverting that was one of the earliest measures taken by the Sánchez government so maybe other than fully implementing it I don't know what they can do.

Oh ok. Thank you for your answer.

[Velasco]

Apparently La Razon did a recient poll on the monarchy and republicanism in Spain. The biggest question: "Should Spain become a republic?" saw a 64% no, 27% yes split; but with a massive age gap: Young people (under 35) support a republic by a 48-40 margin while everyone else supports the monarchy overwhelmingly

Possibly there's not still a majority supporting the republic, but I doubt the monarchy has such a level of support given some recent events that have discredited the institution and led to the abdication of the now emeritus king:  the corruption scandal involving Iñaki Urdangarín and the Juan Carlos' affairs unveiled after the Botswana hunting accident. It wouldn't be surprising a certain pro-monarchy bias in a conservative newspaper like La Razón. On the other hand, it's telling the fact that CIS surveys stopped asking about monarchy shortly after the beginning of the King Felipe reign.

There is a recent international survey conducted by Ipsos that says Spanish monarchy has the lowest level of support among European monarchies. According to that survey 37% is openly in favour of abolishing monarchy and 52% in favour of a referendum.

https://www.ipsos.com/es-es/la-monarquia-espanola-la-menos-apoyada-entre-las-monarquias-europeas

[Velasco]

Celeste-Tel / el diario.es

PSOE 28% 111-114 seats
PP 25.5% 101-104 Sears
Cs 19.4% 58-60 Sears
UP 17.3% 48-53 seats
ERC 3% 11-12 seats
PDeCAT 1.6% 6 seats
EAJ-PNV 1.1% 5 seats
EH-Bildu 0.9% 3 seats
CC-PNC 0.3% 1 seat

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Encuesta-electoral-Celeste-Tel-agosto_0_803170056.html

[windjammer]

Interesting, so a leftwing coalition or minority government seems possible.

[Velasco]

Interesting, so a leftwing coalition or minority government seems possible.

It's possible providing that Catalan and Basque nationalists allow the investiture of Pedro Sanchez. Poll figures show a virtual tie between the Left and the Right, both in terms of vote percentage and seats. Peripheral nationalists hold the balance of power. The main difference between this poll and the CIS is the vote estimation for the PP (25.5% to 20.4%). It might be the 'Casado effect', but maybe the PP-Cs combined estimation was too low in the CIS. The PSOE-UP combined figures are around 45% in both polls.

[Former President tack50]

Interesting, so a leftwing coalition or minority government seems possible.

Well, PSOE-UP-PNV only add up to 173 in their highest estimation. So it's within the margin of error but it's also an upset.

Of course PSOE-UP-ERC(-PNV) would indeed get a majority but I don't know if ERC would be willing to support that. Then again in Catalonia it seems that ERC is slowly becoming the "moderate" party and PDECat the radical one.

[Velasco]

In case PSOE and UP win more seats than PP and Cs, Pedro Sanchez could be elected without a majority in a second vote providing that Catalan and Basque nationalists abstain. Remember that Rajoy won the investiture in 2016 with only 170 votes of 350, thanks to the abstention of a majority of PSOE MPs. First investiture vote requires absolute majority (176 seats); second investiture vote requires simple majority (more affirmative than negative votes).

[Former President tack50]

In case PSOE and UP win more seats than PP and Cs, Pedro Sanchez could be elected without a majority in a second vote providing that Catalan and Basque nationalists abstain. Remember that Rajoy won the investiture in 2016 with only 170 votes of 350, thanks to the abstention of a majority of PSOE MPs. First investiture vote requires absolute majority (176 seats); second investiture vote requires simple majority (more affirmative than negative votes).

Sure, but remember that back in 2015 PSOE+Pod+IU had 161 seats while PP+Cs had 163.

If what you say were true, in theory Sánchez should have become PM back in 2015; I don't think a "yes" vote from PNV would have been that hard to get.

If PSOE and UP win more seats than PP+Cs (or even slightly less, but with PNV support) it's all up to the Catalan nationalists again.

[DL]

Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?

I think it is possible, but others don't. Either way, if the polls are accurate we are now right back where we started pre-Catalonia, a chaotic makeup that depends upon the minors for government. Barring sudden changes during the campaign, Spain could just be trading chaos for chaos.

[Velasco]

Sure, but remember that back in 2015 PSOE+Pod+IU had 161 seats while PP+Cs had 163.

If what you say were true, in theory Sánchez should have become PM back in 2015; I don't think a "yes" vote from PNV would have been that hard to get.

If PSOE and UP win more seats than PP+Cs (or even slightly less, but with PNV support) it's all up to the Catalan nationalists again.

Pedro Sánchez wanted to make a deal with Podemos and peripheral nationalists, according to his own statements after he was ousted from leadership by the 'old guard' and the 'barons'. He couldn't do so because, after the 2015 elections, the PSOE Federal Executive Committee banned explicitly any attempt to make arrangements with Catalan separatist parties and banned in practice any arrangement with Podemos (Pablo Iglesias was very arrogant too, but that's a parallel issue). Given that he had the hands tied by his party in what regards the Catalan parties, Pedro Sánchez tried unsuccessfully to arm a "coalition of change" with Podemos and Cs. Purples and oranges crossed vetoes between them. Meanwhile Pedro Sánchez and his team forged an agreement with Cs and tried that at least Podemos abstained, but the Pablo Iglesias party deemed that deal unacceptable.

Is there any reason why PSOE and C couldn't form a centre-left coalition and put both PP and UP in opposition along with all the regional parties?

I have tried to explain before that Cs has shifted to the right, especially after the crisis in Catalonia intensified past year. CIS surveys used to place Cs in the centre or the centre-right, scoring 5.5 on the ideological numerical scale (0-10 from left to right). Currently Cs is scoring 7 on the same scale, only one point less than PP. Citizens perceptions correspond with Cs stances indistinguishable from PP on issues like Catalonia, immigration or economic policy. The main difference between Casado and Rivera lies on the social conservatism of the PP leader. The tone of Cs leader Albert Rivera is very tough in criticizing the Pedro Sánchez government. Unless the tone, the turn to the right and the radical opposition to any kind of dialogue with Catalan separatists are reversed, I see very complicated that PSOE and Cs can form a coalition government. There's nothing impossible and there are stranger bed fellows than Sánchez and Rivera, but I'm very skeptic about this...

[Former President tack50]

It's been a while since we last got a poll (summer and all) but here's a new one:

Sociométrica / El Español

PSOE: 25.8% (103)
Cs: 23.1% (81)
PP: 22.6% (90)
UP: 16.5% (48)
Vox: 1.8% (1)
PACMA: 1.5% (0)

ERC: 3.0% (12)
PDECat: 1.5% (6)
PNV: 1.3% (6)
Bildu: 0.7% (2)
CC: 0.5% (1)
 
http://electomania.es/20180902sociometrica-2/

Possible majorities with this result:

PSOE+Cs
PSOE+UP+ERC+PDECat+PNV
PP+Cs+PNV

[Former President tack50]

Another poll today, this time from NC Report



This one shows essencially a tied election between PP and PSOE with Cs in third and UP in 4th.


Also, today PM Sánchez announced a very interesting (albeit extremely vague) idea: A referendum in Catalonia for more autonomy, but ruling out the possibility of independence. No idea how that would work but it's an interesting proposal even though I think that it would be rejected by both secessionists and hard unionists. I guess it would be another estatut reform like in 2006. On paper PSC+Podemos+ERC+JxCat would have a majority to reform the Estatut.

https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-pm-pedro-sanchez-proposes-referendum-on-greater-autonomy-for-catalonia/

And related to Catalonia, the "Comitees for the Defense of the Republic" have announced that they will try to paralyze Barcelona by camping in a public square and protesting from the 11th of September (Catalonia's regional holiday) to the 3rd of October. No idea how that will work but there will certainly be a hot autumn like they are saying. I guess it will resemble the 15M protests from back in 2011.

[TheSaint250]

Was the Cs's growth more a result of people expressing frustrations with Rajoy's government? And now that there is stability people are ditching the party?