What’s going on in MO, KS and SC ? Or NV ?

[Tender Branson]

Maybe MO or SC for Biden.

MO probably more so.

And the Biden campaign is struggling to avoid a defeat in NV right now.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/09/biden-nevada-surprise-loss-428366

[Buzz]

Biden doesn't have a prayer in MO, KS, or SC.

Trump doesn't have a prayer in NV.


Really is simple as that.

[Tender Branson]

MO will end up razor-close though.

[Oryxslayer]

Nevada is doing its usual thing where polling is worse for dems when compared to what one expects, everyone gets scared, then the results conform to models. Its the usual SW polling error, compounded by the unusual amount of night-shift voters who are unreachable by polling firms.

[Bootes Void]

Nevada went Clinton by 2 points while Indiana went bush by 20 pts in 2004. Not the same thing

[Buzz]

MO will end up razor-close though.

Doubtful.  I expect Trump to win MO by double digits.

[republican1993]

nevada trump win out of all these just based on margins ...

[Big Abraham]

None of these will happen, but Trump winning Nevada / Biden carrying SC are the most likely of these very unlikely options

[Dr. Arch]

We have this Nevada dance every blasted election, and it's absolutely exhausting to have to point the same things out every time.

I can forgive new members or folks who don't have a lot of experience following Nevada politics, but you, Tender? You've been here for an enternity, and here we are again.

Believe what you will.

[Ferguson97]

None of these will happen, but if I had to pick one: Biden wins SC.

[Tender Branson]

We have this Nevada dance every blasted election, and it's absolutely exhausting to have to point the same things out every time.

I can forgive new members or folks who don't have a lot of experience following Nevada politics, but you, Tender? You've been here for an enternity, and here we are again.

Believe what you will.

I know that NV usually ends up being more DEM than the polls say.

But Biden is extremely weak with the Latinos and they might not vote for him.

[Ferguson97]

But Biden is extremely weak with the Latinos and they might not vote for him.

This is a myth. He's slightly weaker with Cubans who have been trending conservative for a while now. He is matching or surpassing Clinton's numbers with non-Cuban Hispanics.

[Tender Branson]

But Biden is extremely weak with the Latinos and they might not vote for him.

This is a myth. He's slightly weaker with Cubans who have been trending conservative for a while now. He is matching or surpassing Clinton's numbers with non-Cuban Hispanics.

Biden polling at 60-70% among Latinos is one thing, bringing them to the polls is a different matter ...

[GeneralMacArthur]

Until Ralston says Trump has a shot in NV, I won't buy any of this hand-wringing.  It's literally coming out of nowhere.  Nevada has always had terrible polls.  Ralston knows what's up.

[Hope For A New Era]

The only reasonable one is Biden winning SC.

KS isn't ready yet, and I have a lot of doubt in those MO polls. I would love for them to be true, but I just don't see it.

As for NV, we've been over this. It's Safe D in this national environment, even if Latinos move right.

[Xing]

Biden won’t win MO, KS, or SC, but the latter two might be closer than expected. Biden will easily win NV, and that Politico article is just Politico being Politico. NV won’t be remotely close, and might even be decided by double digits.

[mileslunn]

None of those.  Trump should win Missouri by 10 points, so similar to Romney in 2012.  For Kansas will be closer than normal due to GOP screwups there but Trump still wins by at least 8 points.  For South Carolina, it is very inelastic, so should be single digits due to increased African-American turnout.  But unlike North Carolina and Georgia, lacks a large metropolitan area where you have lots of transplant whites.

Nevada should go for Biden by 6-7 points.  Trump has strong base and will win big outside two main cities, mid 40s in Washoe County and around 40% in Clark County.  However, his weak support amongst Hispanic voters will cost him there.

[SevenEleven]

But Biden is extremely weak with the Latinos and they might not vote for him.

This is a myth. He's slightly weaker with Cubans who have been trending conservative for a while now. He is matching or surpassing Clinton's numbers with non-Cuban Hispanics.

All Latinos are the same. Asians too.

[Torrain]

SC, but only in theory, and only because Harrison is keeping the Senate race so close.

SC would be the ultimate icing on the cake though - both aesthetically (turn the East Coast blue!) and symbolically (Biden’s here today because of his primary win in SC).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

SC, but only in theory, and only because Harrison is keeping the Senate race so close.

SC would be the ultimate icing on the cake though - both aesthetically (turn the East Coast blue!) and symbolically (Biden’s here today because of his primary win in SC).

Hey, Torrain: what would be a UK constituency equivalent of the Democrats flipping SC?

[Hope For A New Era]

and symbolically (Biden’s here today because of his primary win in SC).

I didn't even think of that.

Would be very fitting.

[Hammy]

How is Biden +7 in Nevada--higher than Hillary won by--and in a state that under-polls Dems a state mean he's "struggling to avoid a loss?"

[John Dule]

None of these states should have electoral votes. They all suck.

[Torrain]

SC, but only in theory, and only because Harrison is keeping the Senate race so close.

SC would be the ultimate icing on the cake though - both aesthetically (turn the East Coast blue!) and symbolically (Biden’s here today because of his primary win in SC).

Hey, Torrain: what would be a UK constituency equivalent of the Democrats flipping SC?

For the Conservatives? Probably a seat they took in 2019 - Sedgefield, the old seat of Tony Blair. It was a solid Labour seat for decades, and Blair often brought politicians back there to talk strategy. It was close to being his Mar-a-lago.

Labour is greatly hampered by the SNP in the current environment. If they could win back Scotland, they’d have a far easier time in elections, and be in far better shape. Their SC (other than Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge-based seat) would probably be somewhere like Na h-Eileanan an Iar, a consituency comprising the tiny islands of the Outer Hebrides. It’s a seat so Scottish it’s named in Gaelic, and it was the first seat the SNP ever won in a general election, about 50 years ago. Winning Na h-Eileanan an Iar would mean a collapse in the SNP vote, and a Labour resurgence, to near 1997 levels.

[Kalimantan]

SC, but only in theory, and only because Harrison is keeping the Senate race so close.

SC would be the ultimate icing on the cake though - both aesthetically (turn the East Coast blue!) and symbolically (Biden’s here today because of his primary win in SC).

Hey, Torrain: what would be a UK constituency equivalent of the Democrats flipping SC?

Blair winning Hove in 1997 comes immediately to mind