Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

I feel like if Hogan can convince suburban Democrats to vote for him in Maryland, there's no reason to think Republicans cannot do the same in VA. And they actually need fewer of them in VA, since it's like 20 points to the right of MD.

Maryland is too left wing a state for the Republicans to even think about nominating a non moderate. Virginia is right wing enough for the GOP to nominate a neo confederate, but get blown out in the general election.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Virginia will reject trumpkin

Just like they did Enron Ed in 2017.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The polls were off in 2017, the average only had Northam up by 3.3%. The polls were wrong about California and they are going to be wrong with Virginia too.

Pollsters are overcompensating for being off in Presidential elections. They assume the silent MAGA will turn out in off year elections like they did in 2016 and 2020.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Doesn't Fairfax come in VERY late? That alone would be enough to put McAuliffe over the edge assuming it's 65/35? Or am I wrong here?

Fairfax is the biggest county, but it is not big enough to dominate the whole state like Cook county in Illinois. It will help the Democrats a lot when it comes in, but it might not be enough to save Tmac.