2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[BoiseBoy]

Don’t know if this has been shared, but there are a few ways we can provide feedback to the commission or share our CA maps with them. I plan to send mine when I finish it.

https://twitter.com/WeDrawTheLines/status/1427313954225725440?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Will Inyo and Mono go with San Bernardino or Kern? Harley Rouda filed to run in CA-48, but I think it loses the South Coast and takes in most of the CA-47 territory in OC. Will Laguna Beach end up in CA-45 or CA-49?

You can put Inyo and Mono with San Bernadino easily as the current map has. You can also gerrymander it a little to put them in with both the Republican parts of SB and rural Kern.

As for Laguna Beach, I would guess it goes into CA-45. That's what my map does right now for it at least.

[BoiseBoy]

Will Inyo and Mono go with San Bernardino or Kern? Harley Rouda filed to run in CA-48, but I think it loses the South Coast and takes in most of the CA-47 territory in OC. Will Laguna Beach end up in CA-45 or CA-49?

You can put Inyo and Mono with San Bernadino easily as the current map has. You can also gerrymander it a little to put them in with both the Republican parts of SB and rural Kern.

As for Laguna Beach, I would guess it goes into CA-49. That's what my map does right now for it at least.

Rouda filed to run in CA-48. Will he carpetbag or drop out? I can’t imagine him running in CA-45 or CA-49.

It's possible Laguna Beach will be in the new CA-48. My map has it in CA-45, with CA-48 starting at Newport Beach and stretching to the west OC border, going up into Westminster and Garden Grove more. My CA-49 is similar to the current one, but it stretches into Laguna Niguel.



Here is my CA map as a whole. In many ways it is a least-change map. The current map is provided for reference.

[BoiseBoy]

Will Inyo and Mono go with San Bernardino or Kern? Harley Rouda filed to run in CA-48, but I think it loses the South Coast and takes in most of the CA-47 territory in OC. Will Laguna Beach end up in CA-45 or CA-49?

You can put Inyo and Mono with San Bernadino easily as the current map has. You can also gerrymander it a little to put them in with both the Republican parts of SB and rural Kern.

As for Laguna Beach, I would guess it goes into CA-49. That's what my map does right now for it at least.

Rouda filed to run in CA-48. Will he carpetbag or drop out? I can’t imagine him running in CA-45 or CA-49.

It's possible Laguna Beach will be in the new CA-48. My map has it in CA-45, with CA-48 starting at Newport Beach and stretching to the west OC border, going up into Westminster and Garden Grove more. My CA-49 is similar to the current one, but it stretches into Laguna Niguel.

...
Here is my CA map as a whole. In many ways it is a least-change map. The current map is provided for reference.

...

For some reason, I can't see any of your maps.

They're hosted on ImgBB. They appear fine on my end.

[BoiseBoy]

California will start drawing maps next week:

https://twitter.com/sarasadhwani/status/1443387890185035776

[BoiseBoy]

Valadao getting a slightly R district and Nunes getting a tossup seat is probably a fine deal for Dems. The key is being able to win the House in those neutral D+2 years if an open seat pops up and both would accomplish that goal. Harder looks like he could get a minimal change seat and that is a potential problem with the way rural Hispanics have trended. SoCal is where Dems should want a good map, if Kim gets stuck in a Biden +17 seat she is finished.

Yeah, it should be major priority to make sure Steele, Rohrabacher, Kim, etc get booted if possible.

Might happen to Kim, but at the expense of Porter.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1448719189951205391?s=20

Booting Kim at the expense of possibly losing Katie Porter would be tragic.

[BoiseBoy]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

What is the partisan lean for CA-10 and where would Garamendi run and what would the partisan lean of his seat be?

CA-10 becomes Trump+1 per Wasserman and I honestly think Garamendi is due to retire, being 76 and all.

I read upthread that 1 was Lean R, but what exactly is the Trump margin and could a Garamendi v LaMalfa election be in the cards, or would he not want to fight such an election?

CA-01 here is about Trump +5.9. I would guess Garamendi retires.

[BoiseBoy]

Do the population deviations seem high on this draft map? Some districts are plus or minus almost 5%.

Yes, and the districts will be altered as feedback is received.

[BoiseBoy]

Another visualization was released yesterday (11/07), and well, it's something...



https://davesredistricting.org/join/33c10671-b884-4cfe-a898-213073b37680

[BoiseBoy]

The commission has approved DRAFTS (not visualizations) of Assembly, Senate, Congressional, and BOE maps on a 14-0 vote.

They can be found here:
https://www.wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps

[BoiseBoy]

Yikes!

https://twitter.com/metatinny/status/1472432033565659137?s=21

[BoiseBoy]

A DRA map can be found here:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::de47b010-1cd6-470e-91bf-0a8fec99bc5d

[BoiseBoy]

Colored by 2020 presidential results:


By 2016 pres:


By 2018 gov:



New lines with the old ones overlaid:

[BoiseBoy]

Latest congressional map on DRA.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ca7a547-bca4-4731-bbff-bb24443a0920

So it looks like not much has changed. Levin's seat is shored up a bit, going from D+7.9 to D+11.4. The district numbers have shifted a little too.

[BoiseBoy]

Latest congressional map on DRA.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0ca7a547-bca4-4731-bbff-bb24443a0920

So it looks like not much has changed. Levin's seat is shored up a bit, going from D+7.9 to D+11.4. The district numbers have shifted a little too.

The other major change is that the Uber-Coast seat was dropped in favor of the previously proposed shorter version that does not go all the way to Daly City.

Ah, I see that now. I'm still not a fan of the way the district is shaped. I get that it's to separate the white and Hispanic areas of those counties, but God it looks ugly.

[BoiseBoy]

The commission seems to be voting to pass its maps for Assembly, Senate, Congress, and BoE after it takes a round of public comment.

[BoiseBoy]

But they told me only Republicans would benefit from redistricting.

While Republicans will likely be fine in 2022 with this map, I'm more worried about how 2024 will look.

[BoiseBoy]

So who all is double bunked?

According to the 538 map:

CA-19 has Eshoo and Lofgren in the same seat

CA-38 has Linda Sanchez and Young Kim in the same seat (Young Kim will likely run in the adjacent, and open, CA-45 seat which will be much more friendly for her)

CA-42 has Lowenthal and Roybal-Allard in the same seat (they're both retiring)

[BoiseBoy]

...while Levin is the only Democrat that gets hurt.

I wouldn't really say that. Harder is put in an R+12 district with this map, whereas Levin's seat doesn't really change enough to endanger him IMO (D+12.7 to D+11.4).

Harder is in for a world of hurt. He either chooses to run in this new seat and loses or he tries to primary Costa or McNerney, which will likely be unsuccessful.

[BoiseBoy]

...while Levin is the only Democrat that gets hurt.

I wouldn't really say that. Harder is put in an R+12 district with this map, whereas Levin's seat doesn't really change enough to endanger him IMO (D+12.7 to D+11.4).

Harder is in for a world of hurt. He either chooses to run in this new seat and loses or he tries to primary Costa or McNerney, which will likely be unsuccessful.

Nope harder got massively shored up.
Biden +10.. He still has an obvious CV seat to run in.

I know Stanislaus was split but I thought Harder's home was now in the 5th district. 2/3 of Modesto seem to be in that seat. His congressional office is also in the new 5th.