Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

I read somewhere that Nick Saban will come in third from write ins.

Will he have to play Clemson?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mobile Finished up - Now waiting on 25 Precincts from Jefferson. NYT suspects will push Jones to 1%, but is it drops his margin, we could be in recount territory.

I'm really scared about a potential recount.

I think this is going to end up outside recount territory.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Recount baby. Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

I don't think the fix is as simple as changing the value of your bounds.  The obvious problem with your model is that it doesn't account for where votes have been counted and where they remain.  In this case, Moore's best areas finished first, leaving the big Jones areas for the end.  This kind of distribution in vote counting is naturally prone to huge swings.