Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread (user search)
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  Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who will win?
#1
Roy Moore (R)		  
#2
Doug Jones (D)		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 189

Author Topic: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread  (Read 131267 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #25 on: December 12, 2017, 04:39:51 PM »

Some people might feel just the opposite. Wink
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #26 on: December 12, 2017, 05:58:23 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on December 12, 2017, 05:57:19 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on December 12, 2017, 05:47:16 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

That would be shockingly low.  Even 82% would surprise me.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #27 on: December 12, 2017, 06:58:40 PM »
538's live blog is up: http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #28 on: December 12, 2017, 07:14:15 PM »
Quote from: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:04:30 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2017, 05:58:23 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on December 12, 2017, 05:57:19 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on December 12, 2017, 05:47:16 PM
Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

That would be shockingly low.  Even 82% would surprise me.

All evangelicals, or just white evangelicals? If the former, this includes a lot of African American evangelicals who aren't blinded by lockstep Republican voting to believe the accusations

Ah, good point.  I hadn't considered that.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #29 on: December 12, 2017, 07:23:21 PM »
Quote from: Badger on December 12, 2017, 07:22:34 PM
Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

There was one from Fairhope, which is in Baldwin County, suggesting light turnout.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #30 on: December 12, 2017, 07:38:28 PM »
Quote from: 🎄Jolly Democrat🎄 on December 12, 2017, 07:31:39 PM
29 more minutes, this is a guaranteed interesting night.

And who would have expected that a few months ago?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #31 on: December 12, 2017, 07:49:27 PM »
How about cooling it with the epithets?  It's just lowering the signal-to-noise ratio in an already crowded thread.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #32 on: December 12, 2017, 08:35:32 PM »
Posted at 8:09 EST:

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #33 on: December 12, 2017, 08:36:54 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #34 on: December 12, 2017, 08:37:51 PM »
Jones had slid down to about .25 on PredictIt just before the polls closed, but has recovered to .42.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #35 on: December 12, 2017, 08:42:47 PM »
A couple of tidbits from the 538 blog:

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #36 on: December 12, 2017, 08:44:24 PM »
Jones edging into the lead on PredictIt.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #37 on: December 12, 2017, 08:47:52 PM »
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If Jones ends up anywhere close in Houston, Moore is toast.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #38 on: December 12, 2017, 08:54:34 PM »
Montgomery Advertiser political reporter:

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #39 on: December 12, 2017, 08:58:14 PM »
DDHQ guy:

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #40 on: December 12, 2017, 09:09:04 PM »
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« Reply #41 on: December 12, 2017, 09:14:25 PM »
Quote from: Alpha on December 12, 2017, 09:12:58 PM
NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Big shift.  They now have Jones margin at +2.6 and his winning chances at 66%.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #42 on: December 12, 2017, 09:18:04 PM »
Now Jones+4.7 and 76% on NYT.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #43 on: December 12, 2017, 09:29:04 PM »
NYT now at 90% Jones.   PredictIt at .55 for Jones.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #44 on: December 12, 2017, 09:35:47 PM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on December 12, 2017, 09:33:37 PM
Jones max now at 50 percent for the first time.

This is a hilarious thread. Smiley

Well, you're adding quite a bit to the comedy relief. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #45 on: December 12, 2017, 09:38:28 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #46 on: December 12, 2017, 09:53:11 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #47 on: December 12, 2017, 10:45:14 PM »
Let's take a moment to realize what's happened here.

The Republican Party has thrown away a safe Senate seat in Alabama, for at least the next three years.  Moreover, it's one that could cost them their majority next year.

Consider the ways this could have been avoided:

Trump could have nominated someone other than Sessions to be Attorney General.

Bentley could have appointed someone other than Strange as a placeholder, which would have avoided the hint of corruption.

Ivey could have left the special election next November instead of moving it up to this year.

Any one of these would have avoided the loss of the seat.  There's a lot of political stupidity at any time.  But it's rare to see such consistently creative stupidity as the GOP committed here.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #48 on: December 12, 2017, 10:57:23 PM »
I must admit that I'm looking forward to tomorrow's Trump tweets.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #49 on: December 12, 2017, 10:59:31 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on December 12, 2017, 10:57:32 PM
Amazing!!!

So when exactly does Jones take office?

The SoS previously said the election probably won't be certified until the first week of January.  Strange will remain in the Senate until then.
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