Regardless of whether Krolicki jumps into the Senate race (which I still doubt), it doesn't really matter if Lowden and Tarkanian are considered second-rate candidates; either of them will beat Reid.
I think that's where we disagree. If Reid faces anyone but Krolicki I'm willing to wager a small bet that Reid wins at the end. I'll elaborate more as this race develops and as I learn more about the Nevadan electorate (I did spend most of my life in a town called Nevada City, California, fwiw
). And even if a third-tier candidate has the potential to win, it's still a significant coup to flip over to a first-tier candidate for a whole host of reasons that I don't think I even have to bother listing.