French presidential election, 2022

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lci.fr/politique/sondage-exclusif-presidentielle-2022-le-scenario-macron-le-pen-se-renforce-la-presidente-du-rn-en-hausse-2186903.html

In this poll from May 24th, Macron beats Le Pen 54-46

He does it by winning under 25s and over 65s, but Le Pen would win the 25-64 year old groups

How would you interpret this, and what do you think this means for possible evolution going towards the election and beyond?

[Lechasseur]

Even the right is left-wing in France...

Eh, there was a joke where the left-wing politicians are in the conservative party and the right-wing ones in the socialist party.

Obviously not really relevant now given the collapse of LR and PS, but there was some truth to that.

It almost seems to me that Mitterrand was a natural conservative who joined the SFIO for the sake of his political career (that being said, he did a lot of good for the French left in terms of getting their agenda through and making them a viable force again), while Hollande was basically a PS member due to his fondness for social liberalism without ever really having embraced any of the non-cultural tenents (which is basically what caused him to become so unpopular so quickly).

Then on the right, Chirac and Juppé were former communists who somehow found themselves being Gaullists (Chirac surely due to his marriage with Bernadette and to make his in-laws happy, Juppé idk), but their convictions seem to have always been more to the left.

Chirac's presidency is known by many a right-wing activist as the "12 lost years".

[Lechasseur]

Then on the right, Chirac and Juppé were former communists who somehow found themselves being Gaullists (Chirac surely due to his marriage with Bernadette and to make his in-laws happy, Juppé idk), but their convictions seem to have always been more to the left.

Never knew that about Juppé. When was he a Communist? He came from a Gaullist family (his father was in the Gaullist part of La Résistance).

Yeah he voted for the Communist League's candidate, Alain Krivine, in the 1969 presidential election

[Lechasseur]

Lol I just discovered on LinkedIn today that someone I know IRL is running for president lol

[Lechasseur]

Question for the French posters here:

1) Given how divisive both Macron and Le Pen are, as well as his good polling numbers, how likely is a Wauquiez surge?

2) Any chance of some sort of left wing alliance? Cause it seems the only way they could get to the runoff at all

Wauquiez won’t be the nominee imo. It will probably be Bertrand. And unfortunately I don’t see a left wing alliance happening, but we’ll see.

[Lechasseur]

Would it help or hurt the French far right if Eric Zemmour ran for president?

[Lechasseur]

Would it help or hurt the French far right if Eric Zemmour ran for president?

If Le Pen runs as well, how would it help? Amusingly, when I was in Paris I saw campaign posters for him in his stronghold...the Ave de Breteuil.
Who did he support in 2017?

More the idea of him mobilizing the far right more and potentially getting people to vote Le Pen in the second round by introducing far right ideas to the public more.

But then a candidacy of his could also discredit the far right and make people less likely to vote Le Pen in the runoff..

I'm not sure how that would turn out.

But yeah in the first round it definitely wouldn't help Le Pen.

And if he did run, is their a realistic chance that he'd prevent Le Pen from making the runoff?

[Lechasseur]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

What's Barnier's exact proposal to "control immigration"?

I'd assume Ciotti is basically proposing whatever Le Pen proposes

[Lechasseur]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

What's Barnier's exact proposal to "control immigration"?

I'd assume Ciotti is basically proposing whatever Le Pen proposes

Not sure. All I read in Le Monde is that "il veut maîtriser l'immigration."

I'd imagine he'd probably be taking a line similar to Macron rather than to Le Pen though (and I hope he's much, much closer to Macron)

I can agree that Barnier from what I know (need to see what he says on immigration though) seems to be the preferable candidate on the LR side atm.

[Lechasseur]

If Barnier isn't extreme on the immigration issue like most of current LR, I may back him next year if he wins the primary.

Otherwise, I'll probably hold my nose for Macron

[Lechasseur]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

What's Barnier's exact proposal to "control immigration"?

I'd assume Ciotti is basically proposing whatever Le Pen proposes

Barnier said he wants to stop non-EU immigration completely for a period of time.

Oh geez

OK nope he won't get my support

[Lechasseur]

Any sane person on the right who is interested in governing has joined Macron, so competing in the LR primary you have to go a little crazy. It's a bit disappointing though. Mind you, I'd much rather have Barnier implementing that sort of thing than Le Pen.

Exactly

I used to be an LR supporter but those days are over, they're just about as bad as RN now. It's ni-ni to those two for me now.

[Lechasseur]

Any sane person on the right who is interested in governing has joined Macron, so competing in the LR primary you have to go a little crazy. It's a bit disappointing though. Mind you, I'd much rather have Barnier implementing that sort of thing than Le Pen.

It's ni-ni for me. LR is just about as bad as RN at this point. Like LR is just RN for rich people now.

And yeah as a non-EU citizen (even though I was born in the EU and have lived here almost my whole life), I'm not putting up with that garbage. Why arbitrarily pick non-EU? What's the difference between LR and Le Pen now? Basically none.

[Lechasseur]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

This will be the most disgusting election in my lifetime.

I'm very reluctantly backing Macron simply because the realistic alternatives are Le Pen and LR.

[Lechasseur]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

So are you saying you think Zemmour is trying to help Marine? And if so does it work?

[Lechasseur]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

So are you saying you think Zemmour is trying to help Marine? And if so does it work?

No, I don't think he is tying to help her. There is a definite chance he takes a slice of her vote away and winds up stopping her from reaching the second round. So by all accounts the RN are quite worried about his candidacy.

On this note, it seems like polling is now suggesting that Le Pen and Zemmour are basically tied.

So there's a decent chance now that she doesn't make the second round, and even if she does, if Zemmour's almost tieing with her, I think it will show her off to be pretty weak within her own party, which is not a good look for a runoff.

[Lechasseur]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

So are you saying you think Zemmour is trying to help Marine? And if so does it work?

No, I don't think he is tying to help her. There is a definite chance he takes a slice of her vote away and winds up stopping her from reaching the second round. So by all accounts the RN are quite worried about his candidacy.

On this note, it seems like polling is now suggesting that Le Pen and Zemmour are basically tied.

So there's a decent chance now that she doesn't make the second round, and even if she does, if Zemmour's almost tieing with her, I think it will show her off to be pretty weak within her own party, which is not a good look for a runoff.

I think in part that's down to the blanket coverage Zemmour has been getting over the last week or two. Remains to be seen if that holds up over the coming weeks and months. I would imagine not (memories of the brief Fillon and Hamon surges in 2017), but I genuinely wouldn't know how to predict what will happen. Up until this week the polls have looked more or less steady for ages, but remembering what happened over the final few months in just about every presidential election in recent years, with the added factor of an even more volatile electorate - there is relatively little I would rule out.

Think you're right about Le Pen's position in the party though. A certain clique including the likes of Marion Maréchal have been baying for a more hard line/traditionalists and economically liberal* line for a while now. And if Zemmour is genuinely threatening her in that way, then they will read it as meaning they were right all along. Especially as the "front républicain" seems to have slipped against Zemmour - as if the only real problem was only ever the surname, rather than the programme.

* In the european style - right wing

I suspect at the end Le Pen does still finish above Zemmour, but she's clearly no where near as strong as people think she is. Basically only wwc people in the Nord and the Southwest actually like her.

I'm actually of the opinion that going down the Marion route would be smarter for them longer term. She's definitely more likeable than Marine and she's capable of appealing to LR (who are more or less like her at this point anyway), while the left will never vote for Marine nor will the non RN already right.

I do think RN's programme is a big issue for them, Marine's basically trying to go for a demographic that will never vote for them anyway (the left).

And how has the front republicain failed against Zemmour here?

[Lechasseur]

Manuel Valls suggests "republicans" must come up with a "drastic change" to the immigration system, including suspension of family reunions if they want people to vote for them.

In other news, LR primary will be in December but Bertrand still doesn't want to participate. He has the highest poll numbers from that side.

Did Valls have any other suggestions other than suspending family reunions?

And also, I'm not sure what exactly that entails? Like I think most Western expats with families move here with their families at the same time, would that count? Or is that another procedure?

[Lechasseur]

That Manuel Valls parody's hilarious haha (and yes I already knew it quite well lol)

[Lechasseur]

Tbh I'm not surprised in the slightest that Bertrand didn't make the second round. He always struck me as a paper tiger.

What I was surprised by was Ciotti making the second round. I thought it would be Pécresse and Barnier.

With hindsight I get Ciotti making it, but I was not predicting that at all.

[Lechasseur]

Regardless of whether LR ends up with Ciotti or Pecresse, is there any scenario where either of them makes it into the second round in the spring?

Imo, Ciotti has no chance. He's simply way too similar to Le Pen and Zemmour.

Pécresse probably not, but if Macron's support collapses in the coming months, she'll pick that up so her chances, while very low, are not zero.

[Lechasseur]

Yeah, my first thought was something along the lines of "this is excellent news for Anne Hidalgo".

Anyway Mélenchon and Zemmour had a debate on BFMTV this evening. I didn't watch because, frankly, I'd rather gouge my eyes out with a spoon. But, given that he has been... everywhere... over the last week or so (this is how censorship works apparently), I'm increasingly convinced that Zemmour's mooted candidacy is mostly intended to make Le Pen look like a reasonable, open minded and inclusive moderate by comparision.

I've increasingly come to this conclusion as well, and I'm afraid it will work...

[Lechasseur]

Pecresse elected with 61 % (and 69K votes). No surprise. Good result for Ciotti.

How is it a good result for him? That's not a particularly close margin

[Lechasseur]

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elections/presidentielle/presidentielle-jamais-l-ecart-n-a-ete-aussi-faible-entre-macron-et-le-pen-au-second-tour_AN-202203300424.html

Does Marine Le Pen win this time?

[Lechasseur]

The momentum's on Le Pen's side now. I really think she wins