Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

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I doubt Walker wins if Baldwin wins by 10. If polls are overestimating Democrats a bit, and Baldwin (who could afford to underperform her polls) wins by more like 7, he could possibly eke out a win. I'm not predicting that Walker will win, but Democrats (especially those of you in Wisconsin ) shouldn't rule it out, and should work tirelessly to elect Evers.

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The average of the two polls is Super Nintendo Evers +4.5, which isn't implausible at all.

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My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

That sounds about right to me. Iirc Walker won by about 7-8 points in 2010, and I think Evers will probably win by around that much too.

Walker won by about 5.5 in 2010, and it's possible that Evers could win by that much, but I think it'll be somewhat closer.

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This is notable:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1052928421771137024

But they think Vukmir has a chance? Lol, he’s clearly campaigning for himself in 2020.

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Trump will be coming to Wisconson next week to rally with Walker and Vukmir. Will that help or hurt Walker?

Probably no effect one way or the other.

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Unless one is Obama or Dubya or JFK, debates don't sway much.

I actually agree that it doesn't make much of a difference who "wins" debates, but I think a candidate's attitude during a debate says a lot more (about what position they think that they're in.)

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Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

He's right to be worried. Wisconsin is the next Arkansas. Dems have completely forgotten this state in their pursuit for Atlanta old money denizens.

That's funny, I don't remember Wisconsin being one of the most socially conservative states in the nation where population growth is primarily in rural areas.

Anyway, being nervous about this race is definitely normal and doesn't make one a concern troll. Saying that Walker will definitely win again because 2016 and something something Titanium R Wisconsin with a permanent R trend, on the other hand...

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Hopefully the permanent R statement isn't directed at me, since I certainly don't see it that way and am now than aware of how rural communities are shrinking.

No, you're fine. I was talking about hofoid, who claimed that Wisconsin is the next Arkansas.

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Evers lead flopping down in new Reuters poll. Where are all those that doubted me now? 

Yes, a three-point lead for a Democrat in a junk poll that has NV as a dark red state is irrefutable evidence that Wisconsin is as Republican as Arkansas.

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Evers lead flopping down in new Reuters poll. Where are all those that doubted me now? 

Yes, a three-point lead for a Democrat in a junk poll that has NV as a dark red state is irrefutable evidence that Wisconsin is as Republican as Arkansas.

delete

I'll look forward to drinking your salty tears on November 7th when your God Scott Walker loses re-election. See you then.

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It’ll be Evers +4 or +5, and Atlas will proceed to call the race for Evers before a single vote has been counted.

Yep, and if it's Evers +1 or anything better for Walker, people will be freaking out, and the usual suspects will be saying "Yeah, I knew Walker was inevitable. Wisconsin is a deep red state now."

I'll predict Evers +3, Baldwin +11.

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Democrats were overconfident in 2012 and 2014 about their chances of beating Walker, especially given the kind of year that 2014 was, but at least this year, they have polling to point to. While polling doesn't suggest that Walker is DOA, it does suggest that he's more likely to lose than not, and Democrats have reason to be cautiously optimistic here.

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This is a classic case of Democrats putting their expectations high. This race has been close all year, and a tie is hardly surprising, nor does it mean that Walker is inevitable, like our resident stable genius is saying. It means that it'll come down to undecideds and turnout. Gun to my head, Evers narrowly wins, due to undecideds breaking in his favor, but only by 1-2%. If Walker winning means Trump is guaranteed to win Wisconsin in 2020, ask President Hillary Clinton about her margin of victory in Pennsylvania.

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If Walker winning means Trump is guaranteed to win Wisconsin in 2020, ask President Hillary Clinton about her margin of victory in Pennsylvania.

No, but the fact that Democrats haven’t put this race away in what seems to be a massive Democratic wave year even bigger than 2006 is certainly interesting, especially given how well they are doing in IA/OH/WI/MI/PA/FL.

They're doing slightly worse here than in FL, better than in OH, and we really don't have much polling to conclude anything with confidence about IA. Walker could survive, but I'll be stunned if Democrats win IA and OH at the same time.

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I'll be hoping to hear that turnout is high in Milwaukee and Dane tomorrow. If this really is a Democratic wave year, Walker shouldn't be winning.

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I don't see Walker conceding for a while yet, but it's been called for Evers. Nice to win a nailbiter for a change, especially after Florida.

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Why not have county electoral colleges as well, and congressional district electoral colleges! People don't matter, acres matter! Seriously, how can anyone defend Republicans bashing (not just writing off, but bashing) huge swaths of Americans (California/New York, the large cities/urban areas of a state like Madison/Milwaukee), and then turning around and saying that the Democrats are the smug elitists who don't care about Americas? Obviously, a "state electoral college" would never become law, but the fact that this is what they're seriously trying to push is comically corrupt, and further evidence that the last thing these Republicans care about is the "will of the people."

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Why not have county electoral colleges as well, and congressional district electoral colleges! People don't matter, acres matter! Seriously, how can anyone defend Republicans bashing (not just writing off, but bashing) huge swaths of Americans (California/New York, the large cities/urban areas of a state like Madison/Milwaukee), and then turning around and saying that the Democrats are the smug elitists who don't care about Americas? Obviously, a "state electoral college" would never become law, but the fact that this is what they're seriously trying to push is comically corrupt, and further evidence that the last thing these Republicans care about is the "will of the people."

Perhaps, this will force Dems to care more about than just urbanites.

Yeah, who cares about 80% of the U.S. population? It's totally fine for Republicans to write that irrelevant part of the American electorate off and pretend to care about the remaining 20%.

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Yeah, if people from both parties can’t at least agree that the moves of the WI GOP, MI GOP, and NC GOP are out of line and blatantly self-serving attempts to avoid the will of the people, we’re never going to get anywhere. Of course, I’m sure many usual suspects will dodge the question by bringing up Menendez or someone from the Illinois Democratic Party to “prove” that “the Democrats are just as bad/way worse!!!” I get that we’re polarized, but we’re all screwed if we can’t acknowledge when our own party is giving the middle finger to their constituents to consolidate power.

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Very sad. Urban-rural divide will get worse with ignorance like this.

https://twitter.com/repvos/status/1072312325032603648

This is identity politics. Full stop.

Republicans love identity politics when it's white male grievance.

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Kind of like with Reagan, Republican are hoping that saying Walker was the best governor ever enough times will make it true.

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Looking good for Neubauer so far, but I'll try to stay cautiously optimistic.

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I really hope Hagedorn doesn't win. Turnout (while ok) isn't looking as good as last year's SCOTUS race.

Decreased dem enthusiasm is the name of the game.

Rain in NoWI, Neubauer is finished.

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Off-Topic but doesn't $164 million for a high school sound absurdly expensive? Even considerable costs for high schools in Virginia (link) come up at just half that amount.

Somewhat, but it also depends on how large the high school will be, which will determine how much staff is needed and what sorts of programs they will want to fund, as well as resources and facilities.

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I really hope Hagedorn doesn't win. Turnout (while ok) isn't looking as good as last year's SCOTUS race.

Decreased dem enthusiasm is the name of the game.

Rain in NoWI, Neubauer is finished.

Your R hackery of WI never ceases to astound me.

It was a joke.

I know, I meant to reply to Limo.

Limo's a troll, don't take him seriously. And the other concern troll who has an obsession with Wisconsin being Safe R is hofoid.