The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[I Won - Get Over It]

According to Gallup, the two presidents who needed the shortest period of time to drop to a 35% approval rating for the first time (prior to Trump) were Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan. Truman needed 17 months in office, Reagan 24 months.

The presidents who never dropped to 35% in their entire time in the White House were Eisenhower, Kennedy, Ford, Clinton, and Obama.

The only candidate that became president with favorability rating under 35%:
Trump 



Yougov MARCH 26-28 vs MARCH 19-21 

All Adults, 1500
41 (-/-)
47 (+1)


RV, 1300
45 (+1)
50 (+1)

[I Won - Get Over It]

538 added a new feature to their tracker. Trump vs former Presidents. Cool!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/#historical

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen

Total, -12
44 (-/-)
56 (-/-)

Strongly, -17
27 (-/-)
44 (-/-)

[I Won - Get Over It]

icitizen, All Adults, 1100, March 27-29 vs March 20-23
 https://icitizen.com/insights/trump-job-approval-march-27-29-2017/

33 (-4)
66 (+4)

[I Won - Get Over It]

AP poll:  Trump 40% approval, 58% disapproval. Key sub-poll:  Trump 50-48% on Economy.

Crucially, Trump's base has not yet abandoned him to the wolves. His strength on the economy probably protects him from total implosion/impeachment. However when the recession comes and things turn to the worse then at that point Trumpy's base will abandon him and his ratings will go down to the low 30s. But they're unlikely to reach that in the aggregate until 2018-2019. His downfall will take time. But we see the keys for when that event will occur.

The economic downturn will be a very dangerous political time for Trumpy and it will be when he is at his most authoritarian.

Yes, if recession comes, he's toast. And it is a pretty big "if".

Do you think that Trumps deregulation are good or bad for the economy? At least in sportterm they are probably good. So I'd say that the probability of recession before 2020 is pretty low.

So what would happen if there is no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs? Democrats and media went all-in that Trump's presidency will be a disaster. What if they "slightly" exaggerated it...

Yeah, then no recession, a "better" immigration system and more jobs will be just enough for a reelection.

And if he somehow manages to pass "infrastructure spending"-bill...

[I Won - Get Over It]

Ipsos, MARCH 26-30 vs MARCH 21-25

All Adults, 1700 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
46 (-/-)
47 (-2)


LV, 400 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1
43 (-3)
50 (+1)

It seems like Ipsos has 2 independent samples

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup

40 (+2)
56 (-/-)



I wonder if it is Trump's new average. 39% ±3

[I Won - Get Over It]

New all-time low in Rasmussen

Total, -16:
42 (-1)
58 (+1)

Strongly, -19:
27 (-1)
46 (-1)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Reuters/Ipsos:

Trump Approval: 44/49
Trump Favorability: 51/49 (lol)
Obama Favorability: 64/36

Link? According to http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2
Trump's Approval is  45.5/46.5

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup:

Approve 39% (-1)
Disapprove 55% (+2)

It should be
Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

No?

[I Won - Get Over It]

Ipsos, MARCH 30-APRIL 3 vs MARCH 25-29

All Adults, 2100, http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
46 (+1)
50 (+3)

LV is very unstable (due to sample size?). +10% at March 23, -14% at March 28, -1% at Aprils 3 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/filters/LIKELY:1

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen


Total, -8:
46 (+3)
54 (-3)

Strongly, -15:
28 (+1)
43 (-3)


Surging indeed

[I Won - Get Over It]

A new ACA poll shows 61% of voters will blame Trump an the GOP if Obamacare "imploded" only 31% would blame Obama an dems https://mobile.twitter.com/undefined/status/849376829802729473/photo/1

That sounds about right. Whatever happens to the ACA, it is on Republicans at this point, whether one thinks that is fair or not. They can't pass the buck - not after all their rhetoric over the past 8 years, and the fact that they have unified control now.

Trump can *try* and dodge this bullet, but it won't work. That is the downside of holding the White House, and worse yet, having unified control. When voters need someone to blame, they often look to the top.

The big question is if the same can and will be applied to a stronger economy. If economy will colapse it is for sure, but what if it will be just pretty good.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/private-payrolls-grew-263k-in-march-vs--185k-est-:-adp.html

Right now it probably does not matter much, but if this trend will keep on, I can see Trump benefitting from it.

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen,

Total, -8:
46 (-/-)
54 (-/-)

Strongly, -18:
27 (-1)
45 (+2)





Gallup
41 (-1)
53 (+1)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup, April 13-15

41% (+2)
53% (-2)

Trump's job approval seems to have stabilized around 40%.

[I Won - Get Over It]

What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.

Gallup shows the same. That's why I don't believe that Trump's numbers will fall down as Obama's did. He is already near his floor. And he is also near his ceiling.

[I Won - Get Over It]

What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.

Gallup shows the same. That's why I don't believe that Trump's numbers will fall down as Obama's did. He is already near his floor. And he is also near his ceiling.

Huh? Trump has already produced numbers worse than Obama ever had.

I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Obama's fall of the approvals was mostly due Reps and Rep-leaning Inds. Trump's numbers among Dems and Dem-leaning Inds were awful from the beginning => not so many voters to lose. I see him oscillating between 35-45% if nothing extraordinary happens (like recession, sending troops&problems with NC or awful healthcare reform).

[I Won - Get Over It]

PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

All Adults,
Total:
39% (-4)
54% (-1)

Strongly:
30% (+1)
44% (+1)


RV,
Total:
42%
52%

Strongly:
34%
44%

[I Won - Get Over It]

Obama's fall of the approvals was mostly due Reps and Rep-leaning Inds. Trump's numbers among Dems and Dem-leaning Inds were awful from the beginning => not so many voters to lose. I see him oscillating between 35-45% if nothing extraordinary happens (like recession, sending troops&problems with NC or awful healthcare reform).

Did I miss something? What do you mean by "problems"?

Oops! It should be NK (North Korea).

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen, 17 April

Total, +/- 0:
50% (+2)
50% (-2)

Strongly, -9:
30 (-/-)
39 (-3)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen, 17 April

Total, +/- 0:
50% (+2)
50% (-2)

Strongly, -9:
30 (-/-)
39 (-3)

Wait a minute this is the poll Trump bragged about?!

Haha, yes!

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen, 18 April

Total, +0:
50% (-/-)
50% (-/-)

Strongly, -7:
32 (+2)
39 (-/-)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Hockey fans are trash. Truly the worst of the bunch.

Why not NASCAR fans?

And why did they not poll golf fans?

[I Won - Get Over It]

Ipsos, April 13-17

All Adults,
43% (-4)
52% (+4)

RV
45% (-3)
51% (+3)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen, 19 April

Total, -4:
48% (-2)
52% (+2)

Strongly, -9:
31% (-1)
40% (+1)