The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[henster]

There has been surprisingly very few polls of Pennsylvania since the election.

[Person Man]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

And because he's a Rich Republican, the media is downplaying the risks against the markets. They did the same with Bush in his second term. "The economy is great", "equities are booming", "taxes are affordable", "you can buy a respectable  house with modest finances". Now, with a modest jobs report the media says "the job market is healthy". Last year, they would say "more people are working, but the UE is only going down because college kids are moving back to thier mom's basements and guys in Indiana are going on SSI"

[hopper]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

[hopper]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

And because he's a Rich Republican, the media is downplaying the risks against the markets. They did the same with Bush in his second term. "The economy is great", "equities are booming", "taxes are affordable", "you can buy a respectable  house with modest finances". Now, with a modest jobs report the media says "the job market is healthy". Last year, they would say "more people are working, but the UE is only going down because college kids are moving back to thier mom's basements and guys in Indiana are going on SSI"

MSM is mostly Democrats though. They aren't rooting for Republicans or even being down the middle with their media coverage. They were very kind to Obama as well even though Obama wasn't buddy buddy with MSM at all.

[pbrower2a]

So long as we believe that President Trump will be running for re-election, this study by Nate Silver will remain relevant.

I used it to predict that when Obama had approval ratings in the middle-to-high 40s early in 2016 that he would win re-election so long as one recognized

(1) that he was a competent campaigner
(2) that he had legitimate achievements in his first term
(3) that he satisfied his core support
(4) and that he would not have some disaster of foreign policy, economic meltdown, or scandal involving himself or those around him.

One cannot govern as one campaigns. There are deals to make, and one does not get everything that one likes. People who vote for a candidate in one year may find themselves disappointed with the results but find things generally tolerable.

It was obvious that President Obama would have to campaign just to save his political life, but he could do it. I'm guessing that a politician typically loses about 6% of his support as a candidate while governing or legislating (politics is a dirty business) but can get it back with adept campaigning. Against the usual challenger he would win. Mitt Romney was still an unusually-good challenger, but Obama still won.

A hint: Mitt Romney would have won by a landslide against Hillary Clinton, and nobody would be questioning whether he pulled any bait-and-switch tricks upon Americans who later feel gulled.  

As the Trump administration continues, more people are going to recognize Barack Obama as an excellent model of a politician -- a cautious and likable person who runs a tight ship. That is a tough standard, but you can see how that model works.  The likable and cautious leader will attract much competition just to be at his side, and he will get the best and will get good results.  The not-so-likable, more reckless leader will attract opportunists who seek to impose their ideological agendas and seek power for what it can do for the satisfaction of their egos and perhaps for their individual enrichment.

The model suggests that an incumbent Governor or Senator typically gains back about 6.5% of what he loses from winning an election to governing or legislating (and having to make some unpopular decisions) to returning to campaign mode. On the average, if he showed that he could win the last time, he probably wins the next time. But they can lose. Appointed pols almost invariably lose -- because they never showed that they could win election before running as an incumbent. Yes, competence, integrity, and general shifts of support can matter too.

What does the Presidency have in common with the Senate and a State governorship aside from being elected at the state level? The latter two have rather little in common except for a demand for a modicum of competent performance, and that one gets a record of achievements. 

At this point I look at the model and suggest that the usual President who got 46% of the popular vote could reasonably get 40%-or-so in approval ratings and get stuck there. Unless something wild happens between now and the winter of 2019-2020, the approval ratings for President Trump will be around 40%. He will need to be an average campaigner against an average challenger just to get back to 46% of the vote again. If his opponent is a better campaigner than average or is a better strategist, then he (or she) will win.

Donald Trump has lost almost all chance of cutting into liberal contempt for him; he gives them nothing but a vague tolerance. His level of support is almost good enough to allow him to win the same percentage of the vote in 2020 as in 2016 in a binary election -- but in an effectively-binary election that is about what Dukakis got in 1988 and McCain got in 2008. The Democratic nominee of 2020 will be a more adept campaigner than Hillary Clinton.

Here's the really bad news -- his level of support is stabilizing. In a way this is worse than having his support bouncing around as it did for Obama; it will be difficult for him to get the approval rate around 44% necessary for winning a majority of the vote. If you are a Republican you might now regret that Donald Trump won your Party's nomination.

[The_Doctor]

So despite bombing several nations, he's gone from -13 to -10 in the approval ratings sweepstakes. Good job, Donnie. Looks like his presidency will be an unmitigated popularity disaster. He's running far behind Obama's ratings in general. Cannot wait for the recession that will cause Trumpy's ratings to crash through the (already low) basement.

Obama was very likeable where as Trump is not so that's the difference. Obama was personally popular but his policies weren't popular.

Obama was elected with 53% of the vote and was fairly popular until 1 year into his White House. I think for most of his tenure he was at around tied, or up or down by 3-4%. Trump is substantially much more politically unpopular. I think Republicans ignore the enduring unpopularity of Trump at their own political peril; you won't see his supporters engaging that he's unpopular and will remain controversial and unpopular.

I'll add here that Reagan's and Clinton's popularity helped buoy them through difficult times; ditto George W. Bush. In fact, a lot of Clinton and Reagan's legacy remains today because of how popular they were as Presidents and ditto Obama today.

The base should bear that unpopular presidents are usually unable to see their legacies remain enshrined in national law and see their goals quickly undone. Again, I have alluded to the Trump recession coming our way, and if Trump is at 41% and moves to 31% by the time of the recession, Trump could be in true political peril with the myriad of scandals around him.

True if a recession comes he will take the hit like Carter did in '80 and Bush HW did in '92 and be a one-termer. We don't know about the ending result of the scandals(.i.e. Russia) but it doesn't look good.

There is no if. There will be a recession. As far as Russia, he either quits, impeachment, or is quietly forced to abandon a run for President for a second term. The last option could honestly realistically happen so the GOP can try to find someone else but I'm not sure really how that would work out for them ...

[pbrower2a]

There has been surprisingly very few polls of Pennsylvania since the election.

I have seen two polls of Pennsylvania, which is two more than I have seen of Ohio.

A hint: if the election were to be redone soon, Trump would lose Pennsylvania -- "bigly".

[Gass3268]

PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

Source

[The Other Castro]

What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.

[Gass3268]

Gallup:

No updates April 17. Next update April 18.

[I Won - Get Over It]

What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.

Gallup shows the same. That's why I don't believe that Trump's numbers will fall down as Obama's did. He is already near his floor. And he is also near his ceiling.

[Gass3268]

What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.

Gallup shows the same. That's why I don't believe that Trump's numbers will fall down as Obama's did. He is already near his floor. And he is also near his ceiling.

Huh? Trump has already produced numbers worse than Obama ever had.

[Mr. Morden]

PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

Source

Crosstabs:



Also of interest:

[Dr. Arch]

↑ Holy moly. Hispanics almost at the same level of disapproval as Blacks.

[I Won - Get Over It]

What's interesting, as shown by that Pew poll, is that Trump's numbers among his own party are similar to those of past Presidents at this time, but it is his numbers among the opposition party and Independents that are bringing him way down.

Gallup shows the same. That's why I don't believe that Trump's numbers will fall down as Obama's did. He is already near his floor. And he is also near his ceiling.

Huh? Trump has already produced numbers worse than Obama ever had.

I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Obama's fall of the approvals was mostly due Reps and Rep-leaning Inds. Trump's numbers among Dems and Dem-leaning Inds were awful from the beginning => not so many voters to lose. I see him oscillating between 35-45% if nothing extraordinary happens (like recession, sending troops&problems with NC or awful healthcare reform).

[Virginiá]

I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Maybe he never actually reaches the 20s, but does it matter? oscillating between 35% - 45%, with an average rating of around 40% is pretty bad, especially for a new president. Usually it takes a new president year(s) to get to this point, and that is because after so much time, voters feel let down or disillusioned with any number of things the president did or didn't do. Trump hasn't even reached that point yet, and I think to assume his base will never become disillusioned or upset with him is ridiculous. It wouldn't take too much of his base to break away in order to pull him down further.

I'd probably have to agree with you in that Trump likely won't experience a fall quite like Obama did, but I think he can fall somewhat further still. I'm thinking 30% is easily possible under the right conditions. Either way, ratings in the 30s is absolutely toxic to the Republican Party.

[I Won - Get Over It]

PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

All Adults,
Total:
39% (-4)
54% (-1)

Strongly:
30% (+1)
44% (+1)


RV,
Total:
42%
52%

Strongly:
34%
44%

[Sorenroy]

Obama's fall of the approvals was mostly due Reps and Rep-leaning Inds. Trump's numbers among Dems and Dem-leaning Inds were awful from the beginning => not so many voters to lose. I see him oscillating between 35-45% if nothing extraordinary happens (like recession, sending troops&problems with NC or awful healthcare reform).

Did I miss something? What do you mean by "problems"?

[pbrower2a]

I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Maybe he never actually reaches the 20s, but does it matter? oscillating between 35% - 45%, with an average rating of around 40% is pretty bad, especially for a new president. Usually it takes a new president year(s) to get to this point, and that is because after so much time, voters feel let down or disillusioned with any number of things the president did or didn't do. Trump hasn't even reached that point yet, and I think to assume his base will never become disillusioned or upset with him is ridiculous. It wouldn't take too much of his base to break away in order to pull him down further.

I'd probably have to agree with you in that Trump likely won't experience a fall quite like Obama did, but I think he can fall somewhat further still. I'm thinking 30% is easily possible under the right conditions. Either way, ratings in the 30s is absolutely toxic to the Republican Party.

40% is close to the partisan divide, an indication that about all possible swing voters disapprove of the President's performance. Incumbent Presidents have lost four times in the last century:

Hoover ended up with 39.65% of the popular vote in 1932
Ford ended up with 48.01% of the popular vote in 1976
Carter ended up with 41.91% of the popular vote in 1932
the elder Bush  ended up with 37.45% of the popular vote in 1992

Granted, Ford had never been elected to the Presidency, vice-Presidency, or to any statewide office before he became President -- and his campaign showed it. Bush got a challenge from the apparent center (Perot) who cut more into usual Republican than Democratic support, and I am not predicting anything of the sort in 2020.

Disapproval in the range of 55% is likely bad enough to keep President Trump from getting more than about 42% of the popular vote in 2020 -- which is about what Carter got. It's hard to see what Trump wins with such a result -- but he would be lucky to get 200 electoral votes  with that sort of result.  Even with a Ford-like result, he loses Pennsylvania, Michigan, and at least one of Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

I have yet to see the economic meltdown, the international calamity, or the undeniable and inexcusable scandal. But anyone of these is more likely with an unpleasant leader with a chaotic style of leadership.         

[JA]

PEW:

39% Approve (-4)
54% Disapprove (-1)

Source

Clearly, Democrats need to moderate on gun policy and focus on new tax ideas that don't simply saddle Americans with additional income taxes while still generating additional revenue to increase their popularity in the areas of education, healthcare, social welfare, and government spending, while also reducing the deficit. A perfect solution would be a combination of eco-taxes and a land value tax. On trade, they should focus on protecting free trade, but ensuring trade deals are actually fair and enforce our values of labor rights, environmental protections, and safeguarding American jobs.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Maybe he never actually reaches the 20s, but does it matter? oscillating between 35% - 45%, with an average rating of around 40% is pretty bad, especially for a new president. Usually it takes a new president year(s) to get to this point, and that is because after so much time, voters feel let down or disillusioned with any number of things the president did or didn't do. Trump hasn't even reached that point yet, and I think to assume his base will never become disillusioned or upset with him is ridiculous. It wouldn't take too much of his base to break away in order to pull him down further.

I'd probably have to agree with you in that Trump likely won't experience a fall quite like Obama did, but I think he can fall somewhat further still. I'm thinking 30% is easily possible under the right conditions. Either way, ratings in the 30s is absolutely toxic to the Republican Party.

The worst thing about Trump being in the 30s for Congressional Republicans is that it's a going to have devastating effects downballot during the midterms, but virtually the all the favorable approvals will be coming from Republicans, meaning the GOP Congress would have hell to pay if they tried to impeach Trump and get him out of the picture. It's a lose-lose situation.

[pbrower2a]

I meant the magnitude of the fall, both relative and absolute. Obama started at 60-70% and felt to ~45%.  Trump started at 45% (that probably is his ceiling) and now he is at ~40%.

Maybe he never actually reaches the 20s, but does it matter? oscillating between 35% - 45%, with an average rating of around 40% is pretty bad, especially for a new president. Usually it takes a new president year(s) to get to this point, and that is because after so much time, voters feel let down or disillusioned with any number of things the president did or didn't do. Trump hasn't even reached that point yet, and I think to assume his base will never become disillusioned or upset with him is ridiculous. It wouldn't take too much of his base to break away in order to pull him down further.

I'd probably have to agree with you in that Trump likely won't experience a fall quite like Obama did, but I think he can fall somewhat further still. I'm thinking 30% is easily possible under the right conditions. Either way, ratings in the 30s is absolutely toxic to the Republican Party.

The worst thing about Trump being in the 30s for Congressional Republicans is that it's a going to have devastating effects downballot during the midterms, but virtually the all the favorable approvals will be coming from Republicans, meaning the GOP Congress would have hell to pay if they tried to impeach Trump and get him out of the picture. It's a lose-lose situation.

I see polling oscillating but close to 40%. A good news cycle can't rescue the President at this point. To have a real chance at winning the Presidency again in 2020 he must have an approval rating of 43% in early 2020. Of course that is a long time from now (nearly three years), but in the meantime he can inflict huge losses upon Congressional Republicans.

Let's remember that Republicans savaged President by calling him a dictator... President Trump is even more dictatorial. He might have advantages of not seeming so alien  and having more GOP money to support Republicans down-ballot; his Party is much more disciplined. Democrats can turn populist resentments against Donald Trump, whom they can pillory as an elitist.

They cannot remove President Trump, but they can gut his power only one way -- winning the House. The Senate will be more difficult.   

[I Won - Get Over It]

Obama's fall of the approvals was mostly due Reps and Rep-leaning Inds. Trump's numbers among Dems and Dem-leaning Inds were awful from the beginning => not so many voters to lose. I see him oscillating between 35-45% if nothing extraordinary happens (like recession, sending troops&problems with NC or awful healthcare reform).

Did I miss something? What do you mean by "problems"?

Oops! It should be NK (North Korea).

[I Won - Get Over It]

Rasmussen, 17 April

Total, +/- 0:
50% (+2)
50% (-2)

Strongly, -9:
30 (-/-)
39 (-3)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Rasmussen, 17 April

Total, +/- 0:
50% (+2)
50% (-2)

Strongly, -9:
30 (-/-)
39 (-3)

Wait a minute this is the poll Trump bragged about?!