2022 French legislatives

[PSOL]

I'm seeing Reconquête! at 6-7% in the polls. Is actually getting that much a realistic possibility for them? They have next to no infrastructure, very few well-known candidates and their presidential candidate flopped. I'm not sure there are that many people who are willing to vote for Random Zemmourist #47B.

His mogul backers have all this money to blow on this, I can say that it is definitely a great possibility.

[Hash]

I'm seeing Reconquête! at 6-7% in the polls. Is actually getting that much a realistic possibility for them? They have next to no infrastructure, very few well-known candidates and their presidential candidate flopped. I'm not sure there are that many people who are willing to vote for Random Zemmourist #47B.

Yeah, a lot of smart people also agree that Zemmourismo is being artificially inflated/overpolled, and that in the absence of well-known candidates, their 6-7% could look more like 2-4% (probably at the higher end of that: it's quite easy for paper candidates attached to a well-known national movement to get 1-2%). Their only hope at a seat is Guillaume Peltier being reelected in Loir-et-Cher under the zemmourista label (RN doesn't seem to be running a candidate, a small favour which is returned by zemmourismo not running against Panzergirl): not impossible (because of Peltier, Zemmour did quite well in his constituency) but quite difficult.

The second and third wave of presidential majority candidacies dropped, taking them to 502 candidates officially announced.

More cabinet ministers seeking reelection: health minister Olivier Véran (Isère-1), parliamentary relations minister Marc Fesneau (Loir-et-Cher-1), veterans minister Geneviève Darrieussecq (Landes-1), junior minister for foreign trade Franck Riester (Seine-et-Marne-5), junior minister Brigitte Bourguignon (Pas-de-Calais-6), secretary of state for youth Sarah El Haïry (Loire-Atlantique-5), secretary of state for rurality Joël Giraud (Hautes-Alpes-2) and secretary of state for biodiversity Bérangère Abba (Haute-Marne-1). Secretary of state Olivia Grégoire will run in Paris-12. Meanwhile, Nadia Hai, a junior minister and former deputy for Yvelines-11, will instead run on safer ground in the 7th constituency -- LREM unsurprisingly lost the 11th constituency in a very low-turnout by-election in 2020 (to LR) and it's a seat that the left really has no business losing (it was Hamon's seat).

Pécresse ally and LR deputy Robin Reda will run as the macronista candidate in Essonne-7, a seat which he gained from the left in 2017 (narrowly beating LREM in the runoff). In Hauts-de-Seine-6 - Neuilly's constituency and Sarkozy country - LR incumbent Constance Le Grip has also gone over to macronismo. Unsurprisingly, in Alpes-Maritimes-5, ex-LR (now Horizons) incumbent Marine Brenier, close to Nice mayor Christian Estrosi (now a macronista, famously at war with local LR crypto-zemmourista Éric Ciotti), received the macronista endorsement for reelection. In Corse-du-Sud-1, Ajaccio mayor and former deputy Laurent Marcangeli, the leader of the Corsican right who joined Horizons in 2021, will seek to win his old seat back. Surprisingly, however, there will be a macronista candidate against Guillaume Larrivé (Yonne-1), who is perhaps one of the most pro-government deputies still in LR. However, there's still no candidate announced against LR incumbent Damien Abad, rumoured to be a potential minister in the future government, in Ain-5...

The list as it stands: https://mcusercontent.com/b01e87bc72691000eb91829d8/files/d1be7dce-f6f1-bb14-992b-b3bb3bf87cbe/INVESTIS_VAGUE3.pdf

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm seeing Reconquête! at 6-7% in the polls. Is actually getting that much a realistic possibility for them? They have next to no infrastructure, very few well-known candidates and their presidential candidate flopped. I'm not sure there are that many people who are willing to vote for Random Zemmourist #47B.

His mogul backers have all this money to blow on this, I can say that it is definitely a great possibility.

I couldn't really get too upset at so many far-right votes being wasted in this way tbh.

[Babeuf]

(Minor?) blowup in NUPES, with a PCF candidate / mayor who refuses to step aside in a seat reserved for LFI. Roussel doesn't totally take her side but does say he's raising "concerns" with LFI over their candidate.

https://www.laprovence.com/actu/en-direct/6758487/legislatives-2022-fabien-roussel-pcf-demande-a-lfi-de-revoir-la-candidature-taha-bouhafs.html

It does seem like there will be at least some dissident left candidates running in seats not reserved for them.

[Zinneke]

Predictably the storm is slowly merging into becoming about his ethnicity, with LFI candidates playing on the canard that all Arabs are aggressive in language and tone ergo its racist (and classist) that people are attacking him on his previous statements about white women being "whores" for trying to act like Rosa Parks...*sigh*

[Хahar 🤔]

parochial boy discussed this case earlier:

The one dissident that I have seen getting a lot of attention is Michèle Picard, mayor of Vénissieux, in the 14th. In particular because she is standing against journalist-slash-campaigner Taha Bouhafs, whose candidacy seems to have created a collective meltdown among the right and the cultural elite. Basically down to the extent he is an avatar of all they hate about the young Arab men from the banlieues. He is intensely controversial overall, and the consitituency is an old PCF stronghold. Though I haven't got a clue how well Picard will do in the end, or what sort of backlash against Bouhafs there might be.

[warandwar]

I would urge people to look at the french language stuff about Taha. He's a target of like constant media attacks for filming police brutality and there's not infrequent claims of "reverse racism." It really speaks to the PCF's decline that they feel the need to defend the honor of the flic here...

[warandwar]

Predictably the storm is slowly merging into becoming about his ethnicity, with LFI candidates playing on the canard that all Arabs are aggressive in language and tone ergo its racist (and classist) that people are attacking him on his previous statements about white women being "whores" for trying to act like Rosa Parks...*sigh*

Roussel is saying Taha is not fit because of his previous conviction "for "contempt" and "rebellion" towards a police officer, whom he himself accuses of violence during his arrest in 2019 in margin of a demonstration."
Speaks for itself!

[Zinneke]

Look, I can totally see this as PCF looking after their self-interest. On the other hand, LFI are exploiting the same tropes as the far right by saying that calling white women activists whores is "just what working class French arabs do, fam" - like seriously, this guy is a piece of sh**t and whether he exposes police brutality or not doesn't change that fact!

I'm not concern trolling here, I'm just angry we've let the hegemony on the left fall to rank amateurs in LFI who fall time and time again into the trap the French Right sets them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

... his previous statements about white women being "whores" for trying to act like Rosa Parks...*sigh*

He said what now? Can definitely believe that media coverage related to the man is racist and nasty, but you really don't want anyone who has said anything that overtly misogynistic running for public office, particularly not in a marginal district?

[Zinneke]

... his previous statements about white women being "whores" for trying to act like Rosa Parks...*sigh*

He said what now? Can definitely believe that media coverage related to the man is racist and nasty, but you really don't want anyone who has said anything that overtly misogynistic running for public office, particularly not in a marginal district?

Actually its worse : he called an LGBT sex worker a "white whore" for wanting to act like Rosa Parks for standing up for women's rights

As well as several choice tweets about Charlie Hebdo caricaturists asking for it...

[warandwar]

If you want to set a standard of banning anyone who uses "pute" from running for office, that's fine (it's more like b**** in how its used, for context). If you want to call it sexist, thats fine. But saying that it is racist to call someone a "white b***h" is laughable and absolutely is racist.

The broader political thing here is that its probably best to avoid running celebrity candidates (thats who Taha is, for better or for worse) if you can help it.

[PSOL]

More and more reasons why LFI is the only viable alternative for the French left to survive.

[Хahar 🤔]

Qu'est-ce que c'est ... dégueulasses ?

[warandwar]

Qu'est-ce que c'est ... dégueulasses ?

Slangy way of saying gross

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If you want to set a standard of banning anyone who uses "pute" from running for office, that's fine (it's more like b**** in how its used, for context). If you want to call it sexist, thats fine. But saying that it is racist to call someone a "white b***h" is laughable and absolutely is racist.

The broader political thing here is that its probably best to avoid running celebrity candidates (thats who Taha is, for better or for worse) if you can help it.

Why is it racist to oppose candidates who use race as an insult?

[Velasco]

RN candidate Melanie Fortier has "a moment of hesitation" when asked about her party's policies on public services. "Can we cut this?"

https://twitter.com/2022Elections/status/1523614056602832896?t=cwBJSkvlsxfHEtSBX...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whatever you can say about the esoteric debate of what constitutes "reverse racism" and whatnot, it should be obvious to everyone that these aren't good things to say and that attempts to justify and excuse this kind of behavior isn't a great way to win over a majority of French people (who, remember, haven't been inundated with the kind of Discourse that leads people to make excuses for this sh*t on the left in the way much of the US has been). I don't know if NUPES has a chance to win, but I know making this the big topic of the campaign is a surefire way to lose.

[Zinneke]

He’s also been convicted in a court of law for racism, and not even for that incident. But I’m sure the cross-Atlantic folk know better! You guys are so desperate to make any vaguely ancap Left work you’re cheerleading a social fascist pro-Putin demagogue in France. I can understand this , but it’s  it’s like going abstinent in lockdown and then going out and settling for the 60 year old washed out hooker. Have some decorum and standards guys, and expect better from people who call themselves left wing.

[Babeuf]

Lots of talk on twitter now that Taha Bouhafs is giving up his candidacy for the seat. Haven't seen anything official yet though.

Edit: found a more official story on it. https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elections/legislatives/j-ai-essaye-mais-je-n-y-arrive-plus-taha-bouhafs-ouvre-la-porte-a-son-retrait-aux-legislatives_AN-202205100074.html

[Agafin]

Lots of talk on twitter now that Taha Bouhafs is giving up his candidacy for the seat. Haven't seen anything official yet though.

Edit: found a more official story on it. https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elections/legislatives/j-ai-essaye-mais-je-n-y-arrive-plus-taha-bouhafs-ouvre-la-porte-a-son-retrait-aux-legislatives_AN-202205100074.html

Good, he's sexist and racist and almost certainly homophobic. Pretty much a leftwing Zemmour. What the hell was LFI thinking by keeping him? Just because he's Arab?

[Zinneke]

Lots of talk on twitter now that Taha Bouhafs is giving up his candidacy for the seat. Haven't seen anything official yet though.

Edit: found a more official story on it. https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elections/legislatives/j-ai-essaye-mais-je-n-y-arrive-plus-taha-bouhafs-ouvre-la-porte-a-son-retrait-aux-legislatives_AN-202205100074.html

Good, he's sexist and racist and almost certainly homophobic. Pretty much a leftwing Zemmour. What the hell was LFI thinking by keeping him? Just because he's Arab?

Because he's a good sectarian fireband who would have eventually been deployed against PS-EELV-PCF who are Rightists and cultural elitists.

Also love how the LFI automatons spun his candidacy as the "guy who exposed the Benalla affair" when all he did is take the video and it was Le Monde that made the discovery...a paper not 3 days ago LFI's lider maximo called an extreme right publication!

Anyway all this shows that NUPES is a marriage of convenience for everyone with zero ideological consistency. This is not la Gauche Plurielle where actors understood that there was a government program to be negotiated and enacted but this is really about maintaining groupings in the Assembly given Macron would have headed for a wipeout with LR in financial difficulty and a divided Left and far right. Really what the NUPES alliance should have done rather than have aspirations of governing the country is run an election entirely on 2 issues of proportional representation and decentralization : this would actually save their different tendencies and allow voters to choose according to their principles rather than what the media are saying is the "useful vote". Decentralization would be a populist tagline but more importantly an attempt to dilute power from the Elysée as its an institution that is simply not made to be occupied by any remotely left-wing politician until there is a generational shift. They need to adopt a similar strategy to the Left in the UK with devolution.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If you want to set a standard of banning anyone who uses "pute" from running for office, that's fine (it's more like b**** in how its used, for context). If you want to call it sexist, thats fine. But saying that it is racist to call someone a "white b***h" is laughable and absolutely is racist.

The broader political thing here is that its probably best to avoid running celebrity candidates (thats who Taha is, for better or for worse) if you can help it.

So he's only a misogynist who victim blamed the Charlie Hedobo Magazine people  as asking to be shot..a truly great guy who's a real asset to the french left.

[Oryxslayer]

Lots of talk on twitter now that Taha Bouhafs is giving up his candidacy for the seat. Haven't seen anything official yet though.

Edit: found a more official story on it. https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/elections/legislatives/j-ai-essaye-mais-je-n-y-arrive-plus-taha-bouhafs-ouvre-la-porte-a-son-retrait-aux-legislatives_AN-202205100074.html

Good, he's sexist and racist and almost certainly homophobic. Pretty much a leftwing Zemmour. What the hell was LFI thinking by keeping him? Just because he's Arab?

Anyway all this shows that NUPES is a marriage of convenience for everyone with zero ideological consistency.

We didn't get a Harris poll and projection this week, likely cause they were adjusting the methodology for NUPES, but so far their results have not been good for the united left. I would however be shocked to see a dramatic surge in the seat count whenever it appears. Their results suggest that the United front struggles to pass 100 seats, likely with a ceiling far below the majority line. The model seems to suggest the NUPES is just taking Le Pens place in the presidential contest: wining a bunch of areas in round 1, but doomed in round 2 when voters replicate their earlier consolidation.

To that end, we are seeing the natural dissonance between the banner message of denying Macron his majority and getting a new PM, and the internal knowledge that this is unreachable. To that end, LFI would prefer to hold tightly to any seat that shouldn't be a struggle to win, since surrendering these to their allies is in effect -1 to their parliamentary grouping.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, on the topic of the overseas seats, NUPES endorsed Tāvini huira'atira in the Polynesian seats, an area where the former was not that likely to win to begin with.