Monmouth-VA- tie, youngkin +3, mcauliffe +3

[ElectionsGuy]

lol



As much as you guys want it to be 2017, it's not going to be 2017. I've just saw a non-public poll that indicates a very similar result. And the polls for this race have been very consistent and within a very narrow field of results. Not a single recent poll has been more than +5 for McAuliffe. Contrast that to 2013, the last time a Dem was in the White House, and McAuliffe lead by at least 5 points in nearly all polls. In 2017, you had at least a few polls that indicated Northam would win by more than 5, and you had the enthusiasm and unpopular incumbent party problem on the Democrat's side. Those are both on the Republican's side this year. The incumbent president's approval has a large effect on this race, and historically drags down the incumbent party. At this point, if you deny that, you're just burying your head in the sand.

My prediction is still at this point to think McAuliffe is going to eek out this race, because the polling in Virginia doesn't tend to have the same biases it does throughout the Midwest and WWC America, but I would not be sitting comfortably right now If I were working for McAuliffe.

[ElectionsGuy]

Good god Biden get it together.  He’s seriously going to cost Dems this race.

How is Biden going to cost Dems the race? Pretty sure he's not a Senator who's voting on bills and holding things up.

How could Biden possibly cost Democrats this race?

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe r

lol just log off for a while. Take some deep breaths.

[ElectionsGuy]

These "likely voter" models are a joke. And they are going to (yet again) be so vastly, comically off that the next polling "scandal" will be about how horribly inaccurate these stupid models are now.

Mark my words.

lol if only you spent the same amount of time/energy critiquing polls in 2020 instead of gloating about them and how accurate they'd be and predicting a fantasy landslide that even those polls didn't support.

[ElectionsGuy]

These "likely voter" models are a joke. And they are going to (yet again) be so vastly, comically off that the next polling "scandal" will be about how horribly inaccurate these stupid models are now.

Mark my words.

Fact of the matter remains that I have NEVER actually predicted a SINGLE election result wrong overall in my entire history on this site. I have predicted a couple highly specific county votes wrong, yes, but EVEN THEN was off only by a few hundred votes and fractions of a percent, and we're talking counties many others predicted would have been landslide victories for Rs. (Namely, Franklin KY and Monongalia WV.) But my record as far as predicting the overall results of ANY major race on this site remains undefeated.

For Elliot

58.5%

Im just having some popcorn here

I had a good laugh of it too, who knew it only took a little sass to trigger him that much.

Just fix that quoting issue there, I don't want someone thinking I typed up all that narcissism.