NV-02 special election: 9/13

[Sbane]

So the only thing interesting left to watch in this race are the Washoe numbers?

[Niemeyerite]

Yeah, definitely PPP should poll this again.
However, I think the margin will be closer to high single digits. Harry Reid was supposed to loose, and he won comfortably.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suppose the moral of the story here is the Republicans wised up when they all but dropped the Ryan budget plan.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's an interesting breakdown of TV advertising in this race:

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[Sbane]

Here's an interesting breakdown of TV advertising in this race:

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Indeed this is interesting. Considering how much more the Republicans have been spending, if they still can't win Washoe in this political environment......

[Holmes]

Why are Republicans spending so much? The race has always been in their favour.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why are Republicans spending so much? The race has always been in their favour.

They are still doing what they did in 2009. Blowing large sums of money in the hopes of moving the dial a few points.


To be fair, the PPP poll was incredibly close and Amodei didn't look this strong a few weeks ago. "Amodei sending strong Angle Vibes"?

[Tender Branson]

Democrats are now gaining ground, at least in Washoe:

Yesterday, out of 3048 voters about 48% were Republicans and 38% Democrats.

In the week before, it was more like 52% Republican and 34% Democrats.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, definitely PPP should poll this again.

PPP will poll NV-02, NY-09, Missouri and the nation this weekend.

They will be in the field all day long for each day over the weekend in NY-09, to get enough Jews on the phone.

[Tender Branson]

Democrats close the gap further in Washoe.

Yesterday 2754 people voted. 46% Republicans and 41% Democrats.

Turnout is looking weaker though in the second week of voting, contrary to the 2010 elections when turnout in the second week increased by 30%.

[Tender Branson]

For those who want to keep track, here are the 2010 and 2011 early voting numbers:

2011 so far (excl. Clark County): 54.3% GOP, 33.9% DEM, 11.8% IND

2010 (after 2 weeks of early voting, excl. Clark County): 49.2% GOP, 35.8% DEM, 15.0% IND

Plus: Angle won NV-02 by about 50-43.

So I would say Amodei is currently ahead by anywhere between 10-20%.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in the second week of early voting was much weaker than in the second week of 2010:

Washoe total early voting 2010: 69.211 voters (45% GOP, 40% DEM, 15% IND)
Washoe total early voting 2011: 37.793 voters (49% GOP, 39% DEM, 12% IND)

So, I estimate that total turnout will now be in the 130.000-160.000 range.

My prediction for the special election is:

54.75% Amodei (R)
40.53% Marshall (D)
  4.72% Others

[Niemeyerite]

Mi prediction:

51% Amodei
44% Marshall
5% Others

[Tender Branson]

I also predict that Washoe County will be really tight, with Amodei having a slight advantage:

48-49% Amodei
47-48% Marshall

[NVGonzalez]

Jon Ralston predicted a 15-20 point win for Amodei. Turn the lights off my friends. Shame that the DCCC left Marshall hanging while Amodei got all kinds of help and Republicans spent themselves here to oblivion.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mark Amodei 53%
Kate Marshall 43%
Others 4%

[Miles]

Shame that the DCCC left Marshall hanging while Amodei got all kinds of help and Republicans spent themselves here to oblivion.

I agree 100%.

My prediction:

Amodei- 53%
Marshall- 44%

[redcommander]

What exactly did Marshall do wrong? She came off as an appealing moderate, and had a good record as state treasurer. It seemed like the race was very close until the past week. Was Amodei's echo ad based off the one Jerry Brown ran partially responsible for what seems to be a likely loss for Marshall? Or did the DCC screw up with helping Marshall fundraise?

[Miles]

What exactly did Marshall do wrong? She came off as an appealing moderate, and had a good record as state treasurer. It seemed like the race was very close until the past week. Was Amodei's echo ad based off the one Jerry Brown ran partially responsible for what seems to be a likely loss for Marshall? Or did the DCC screw up with helping Marshall fundraise?

My my view, Amodei ran particularly effective ads against her; he used a few of her past quotes and they seemed to be pretty devastating.  That could be one factor.

Here's an example.

[Tender Branson]

PPP out with their final poll on the race:

The candidates in the special election for Congress are Republican Mark Amodei, Independent American Timothy Fasano, Independent Helmuth Lehmann, and Democrat Kate Marshall. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Mark Amodei................................................... 50%
Kate Marshall.................................................. 37%
Timothy Fasano .............................................. 4%
Helmuth Lehmann........................................... 4%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Amodei?

Favorable........................................................ 45%
Unfavorable .................................................... 36%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kate Marshall?

Favorable........................................................ 37%
Unfavorable .................................................... 50%

...

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 33%
Disapprove...................................................... 59%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable........................................................ 44%
Unfavorable .................................................... 38%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Perry?

Favorable........................................................ 33%
Unfavorable .................................................... 38%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

MItt Romney ................................................... 53%
Barack Obama................................................ 37%

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

Rick Perry ....................................................... 52%
Barack Obama................................................ 40%

...

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dean Heller’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 52%
Disapprove...................................................... 34%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Shelley Berkley?

Favorable........................................................ 19%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%

If the candidates for Senate next year were Republican Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley Berkley, who would you vote for?

Dean Heller..................................................... 56%
Shelley Berkley ............................................... 31%

...

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Brian Sandoval’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 53%
Disapprove...................................................... 30%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Harry Reid’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 34%
Disapprove...................................................... 61%

PPP surveyed 629 likely voters from September 9th to 11th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NV2_912.pdf

[Tender Branson]

This poll looks much better now, even though I think the Independent candidate support is too high. But as for my prediction, the poll results seem to be in line with it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What exactly did Marshall do wrong? She came off as an appealing moderate, and had a good record as state treasurer. It seemed like the race was very close until the past week. Was Amodei's echo ad based off the one Jerry Brown ran partially responsible for what seems to be a likely loss for Marshall? Or did the DCC screw up with helping Marshall fundraise?

It's a Republican district, Amodei is a strong candidate, and the Republicans have outspent the Democrats here more than 2-1; there wasn't really much of an opening for Marshall. Democrats couldn't win here when the seat was open in 2006, so it shouldn't be that much of a surprise that it's not close now.

[krazen1211]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

[Meeker]

So Obama's approval in NY-09 is two points lower than in NV-02... yet he runs 10 points better against Romney and Perry in NY-09 versus NV-02.

[Tender Branson]

So Obama's approval in NY-09 is two points lower than in NV-02... yet he runs 10 points better against Romney and Perry in NY-09 versus NV-02.

And the moral of the story is that approval does not equal support for a candidate.