NV-02 special election: 9/13

[Torie]

What exactly did Marshall do wrong? She came off as an appealing moderate, and had a good record as state treasurer. It seemed like the race was very close until the past week. Was Amodei's echo ad based off the one Jerry Brown ran partially responsible for what seems to be a likely loss for Marshall? Or did the DCC screw up with helping Marshall fundraise?

My my view, Amodei ran particularly effective ads against her; he used a few of her past quotes and they seemed to be pretty devastating.  That could be one factor.

Here's an example.

Unfair ad of course (she can't control national macroeconomics), but that shrill voice of hers! Oh dear.

The district was never in play really.  Why in the world would it be?

[Sbane]

Yup, this district was always out of reach for the Dems. Washoe results are the only interesting thing left to see and it looks like it's going the Republicans way. Another non-southern (and pretty irreligious)white working class area falling for Obama.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

[Sam Spade]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

That's not what an enthusiasm gap is.

[rbt48]

I wonder why the Medicare strategy that worked so well in Lee's NY CD isn't working here?  Also, it seems like the Democrats would pound on that same strategy in the NY-9 race as well.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

That's not what an enthusiasm gap is.

This poll shows an enthusiasm gap via Marshall being a bad candidate running on conservative themes. You can see that with early voting numbers. Sam, you might think I'm a dumb but I know what an enthusiasm gap is.

[Sam Spade]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

That's not what an enthusiasm gap is.

This poll shows an enthusiasm gap via Marshall being a bad candidate running on conservative themes. You can see that with early voting numbers. Sam, you might think I'm a dumb but I know what an enthusiasm gap is.

With the early voting numbers, you have a point, and a potentially valid one too.  But we need to see actual votes in order to adjudge that read.

However, your post had nothing to do with early voting numbers, it had to do with this poll.  The two are not connected.

PPP's way of adjudging an enthusiasm gap is wrong also, but different.  They look at Obama-McCain ID numbers, and say that if the sample is stronger for McCain, then there is "an enthusiasm gap".  For example, this poll is +4 McCain in 2008, whereas NV-2 was +1 Obama in 2008.  That's wrong in so many ways, but since I generally ignore their analysis, no big deal.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

That's not what an enthusiasm gap is.

This poll shows an enthusiasm gap via Marshall being a bad candidate running on conservative themes. You can see that with early voting numbers. Sam, you might think I'm a dumb but I know what an enthusiasm gap is.

With the early voting numbers, you have a point, and a potentially valid one too.  But we need to see actual votes in order to adjudge that read.

However, your post had nothing to do with early voting numbers, it had to do with this poll.  The two are not connected.

PPP's way of adjudging an enthusiasm gap is wrong also, but different.  They look at Obama-McCain ID numbers, and say that if the sample is stronger for McCain, then there is "an enthusiasm gap".  For example, this poll is +4 McCain in 2008, whereas NV-2 was +1 Obama in 2008.  That's wrong in so many ways, but since I generally ignore their analysis, no big deal.

I'd say that the poll composition is more right-leaning than the general electorate in 2008. It has nothing to do with the Obama-McCain ID numbers, that would be a stupid and wrongheaded way to view an enthusiasm gap. The composition of the poll showed an electorate that was 25% liberal to 29% moderate to 46% conservative. Even though the partisan data lines up with registration figures (why so many "American Independents", that fringe party actually has a strong base here?), those numbers look somewhat suspect to me.

Anyways compared to their last poll, which showed a 48 to 46 Obama electorate with a 37 to 41 to 22 D/R/I split this poll is more right-leaning.

After looking at the poll more closely, I'll concede that there is no "sizable" enthusiasm gap but a small one is still there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I guess I'll enter a prediction here: 54-42 Amodei.

[tmthforu94]

I'm going to say:
53-44, Amodei

[Keystone Phil]

55% to 42% win for Amodei is my guess.

[Tender Branson]

Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NV_Page_0913.html

[Sbane]

I'm going to say:
53-44, Amodei

You will be correct, Tmth. I can feel it in my bones.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NV_Page_0913.html

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NV_Page_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

You left the end off of it. Without it, it goes to the wrong page.

[Niemeyerite]

As I've said before, I think it'll be 51-44 Amodei with Fasano breaking 5%

results also here

http://www.silverstateelection.com/

[Tender Branson]

A little bit from Carson City and Elko now in:

7923 votes (61%) Amodei (R)
4446 votes (34%) Marshall (D)

[Sam Spade]

Obviously, we have to wait for same-day voting, but these early voting numbers are not pretty for Dems here.

[Tender Branson]

Amodei has won the Washoe County early vote (all counted) by 52-43.

[Tender Branson]

Unless election day turnout was really strong for Marshall, Amodei will win the district by about 60-35 (or even more).

[krazen1211]

Amodei just dominated.

[Marston]

Election day voting seems to be more pro-Marshall than the early vote (at least in Clark County). Not enough to win or even come close, though.

[Miles]

56-39 Amodei with 58% in.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting. They say Washoe is 100% in, yet it is only the early vote, without election day and absentee ballots.

[Miles]

My bad. I think it was 58% of all early votes.

Less than 3% is in now....

[mondale84]

Only 5% of the precincts in....

Amodei 57-38