Alberta Election 2019

[136or142]

Every riding has at least 2 polls still outstanding (4 have 3 polls.)   I think it's safe to say these 2 polls per riding are the ballots that won't be counted tonight.  By my math the total votes counted so far are 1,661,840.  There are around 223,000 votes to be counted.  For the polling firms to be close to accurate, of these 223,000 votes, about 185,000 have to be for the NDP and about 35,000 for the UCP.


These are the closest ridings, all of them have 2 polls outstanding.
NDP numbers are the first column, UCP are the second column.

1.Calgary-Currie,  8,270, 8,662
2.Calgary-Falconridge, 5,853-6,016
3.Calgary-Varsity, 7,113-7,601
4.Edmonton South 9,108-8,523
5.Edmonton South West, 6,974-7,742
6.Edmonton-West Henday, 6,873-6,760
7.Banff-Kananakis, 8,273-8,945
8.Lethbridge West, 10,296-9,919
9.Sherwood Park, 9,849-10,763

These are the last four ridings still to report final totals tonight
1.Calgary-Peigan
2.Drumheller-Stettler
3.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
4.Red Deer South

[136or142]

Not sure what happened in Calgary-Peigan.  It's now up to having just two polls outstanding, but this one additional poll added 3,949 votes.  If this is not a mistake, it brings the total votes counted to 1,665,789 (all by my math)

[beesley]

Biggest surprises for me? Banff-Kananaskis and Lethbridge West, as well as how badly David Khan did. My prediction wasn't too bad, although I underestimated how inefficient the AP vote was.

[DC Al Fine]

Turned out to be a snoozer. UCP overperformed and NDP underperformed the polling. I wonder if there was a shy Tory thing going on or if the UCP was just more motivated?

[adma]

Turned out to be a snoozer. UCP overperformed and NDP underperformed the polling. I wonder if there was a shy Tory thing going on or if the UCP was just more motivated?

I suspect shy Tory.  And the NDP overperformed in the seats relative to underperforming in the polling.

Though the Alberta Party being shut out at least neutralizes the likelihood of their pole vaulting ahead of the NDP in 2023...

[ilikeverin]

Poor Rachel. Was it surprising that Greg Clark lost by so much?

[mgop]

Are UCP connected in any way with CPC?

[lilTommy]

Are UCP connected in any way with CPC?

Unofficially, but it's the same people.
From what I know, only the NDP is officially linked to the provincial partys.
Which is why you see in Ontario the PCs, Progressive Conservatives and in Saskatchewan, the SaskParty, etc... All are conservative parties with I would assume have unofficial ties to the federal CPC.

[mgop]

Are UCP connected in any way with CPC?

Unofficially, but it's the same people.
From what I know, only the NDP is officially linked to the provincial partys.
Which is why you see in Ontario the PCs, Progressive Conservatives and in Saskatchewan, the SaskParty, etc... All are conservative parties with I would assume have unofficial ties to the federal CPC.

Thanks!

[Hatman 🍁]

Everyone on Twitter was lambasting Forum's last poll because of how off it was compared to everyone else's, but it turned out to be the closest. I really do fear there was some herding going on with the other pollsters. Our internal riding polling was consistent with a 15-20 point lead for the UCP.

[DC Al Fine]

Poor Rachel. Was it surprising that Greg Clark lost by so much?

Yes. Most people thought he would be re-elected with an increased margin.

[Hatman 🍁]

He should never have stepped down as leader. What was his plan, that they would double their seats every election by changing leaders  like Quebec solidaire?

[mileslunn]

Everyone on Twitter was lambasting Forum's last poll because of how off it was compared to everyone else's, but it turned out to be the closest. I really do fear there was some herding going on with the other pollsters. Our internal riding polling was consistent with a 15-20 point lead for the UCP.

Interesting.  I wonder compared to your numbers and general what went wrong.  Looking through the regionals, it looks like the polls were pretty close in Edmonton.  In Calgary they were all over the map and UCP was in line with the most optimistic ones.  It seems though Calgary is the one place the NDP might have outperformed or at least tied 2015 results vote wise, but UCP got the combined PC + WRP vote thereby ensuring they won big as NDP only won Calgary on strong vote splits.  NDP got 62% in Edmonton last time around so not surprised they fall a bit there.

It looks like polls messed up the worse in rest of Alberta which on the seat count front doesn't matter as all showed UCP well ahead, they just had an even bigger blowout, but it did affect topline numbers.  It seems in most elections rural areas is where right tends to most overperform the polls so I wonder if there is a shy element that distrusts pollsters on the right so doesn't respond.  We've seen this problem in other provinces too in rural areas.

Still this was a pretty big miss and only reasons pollsters aren't being raked over is at least they correctly predicted the winner.  Quebec saw a similar miss but at least that could be explained by 19% drop in Anglophone vote turnout thus why Liberals underperformed there.  For whatever reason it seems there is a tendency to underestimate the right.  Maybe age demographics in that millennials lean left, but don't vote as often as older voters?  Or perhaps shy Tory effect?

[rob in cal]

  Do the results in Alberta have a message for the upcoming federal election?

[mileslunn]

  Do the results in Alberta have a message for the upcoming federal election?

It will make federal-provincial relations even rockier and means Trudeau has fewer allies, but I wouldn't read too much.  For starters Harper got 59.5% in 2015 while Kenney got 55% so Kenney actually underperformed what Tories usually get federally mind you in Alberta Tories usually get about 10% more federally than provincially.  I think since the Tories are expected to win the vast majority, maybe all, seats in Alberta it probably is less meaningful than if in Ontario, Quebec, or BC.  Still if the Tories coast to coast can win in all the areas they are provincially it would mean a majority, but I am not sure this will happen, especially in Quebec where CAQ and Tories may sit in similar spots on political spectrum but also have vast differences too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Everyone on Twitter was lambasting Forum's last poll because of how off it was compared to everyone else's, but it turned out to be the closest. I really do fear there was some herding going on with the other pollsters. Our internal riding polling was consistent with a 15-20 point lead for the UCP.

Interesting.  I wonder compared to your numbers and general what went wrong.  Looking through the regionals, it looks like the polls were pretty close in Edmonton.  In Calgary they were all over the map and UCP was in line with the most optimistic ones.  It seems though Calgary is the one place the NDP might have outperformed or at least tied 2015 results vote wise, but UCP got the combined PC + WRP vote thereby ensuring they won big as NDP only won Calgary on strong vote splits.  NDP got 62% in Edmonton last time around so not surprised they fall a bit there.

It looks like polls messed up the worse in rest of Alberta which on the seat count front doesn't matter as all showed UCP well ahead, they just had an even bigger blowout, but it did affect topline numbers.  It seems in most elections rural areas is where right tends to most overperform the polls so I wonder if there is a shy element that distrusts pollsters on the right so doesn't respond.  We've seen this problem in other provinces too in rural areas.

Still this was a pretty big miss and only reasons pollsters aren't being raked over is at least they correctly predicted the winner.  Quebec saw a similar miss but at least that could be explained by 19% drop in Anglophone vote turnout thus why Liberals underperformed there.  For whatever reason it seems there is a tendency to underestimate the right.  Maybe age demographics in that millennials lean left, but don't vote as often as older voters?  Or perhaps shy Tory effect?

I think for Mainstreet, they were trying to over-correct for their Calgary blunder. I mean, the had the NDP and UCP neck and neck.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Nice to have Alberta home again.   

[136or142]

I don't think it was a 'shy conservative' vote so much as the turnout being quite different from the pool of all voters.  About 1.9 million Albertans voted in this election, which is about 70% of the 2.7 million registered voters.  The 2015 election, with about 1.5 million votes, had a 57% registered voter turnout and that had been the highest turnout in Alberta for a number of elections.

It seems reasonable to conclude that virtually all of these additional 400,000 voters voted United Conservative and that many of the 800,000 registered voters who didn't vote were younger or from more marginal communities.  From a quick look at the riding results, it seems that turnout in Edmonton considerably lagged turnout in the rest of the province (especially in the areas of Edmonton most favorable to the NDP.)

[mileslunn]

I don't think it was a 'shy conservative' vote so much as the turnout being quite different from the pool of all voters.  About 1.9 million Albertans voted in this election, which is about 70% of the 2.7 million registered voters.  The 2015 election, with about 1.5 million votes, had a 57% registered voter turnout and that had been the highest turnout in Alberta for a number of elections.

It seems reasonable to conclude that virtually all of these additional 400,000 voters voted United Conservative and that many of the 800,000 registered voters who didn't vote were younger or from more marginal communities.  From a quick look at the riding results, it seems that turnout in Edmonton considerably lagged turnout in the rest of the province (especially in the areas of Edmonton most favorable to the NDP.)

Perhaps a lot of the new conservative votes were ones in 2015 who were sick of the PCs and unsure of Wildrose so just stayed home or could be a lot of conservatives just assumed Alberta would always vote Conservative so didn't bother showing up and the NDP election poured cold water on that idea so they showed up.  if you look at federal numbers, I don't think the UCP vote total is too far off what the federal Tories usually get.

[136or142]

I don't think it was a 'shy conservative' vote so much as the turnout being quite different from the pool of all voters.  About 1.9 million Albertans voted in this election, which is about 70% of the 2.7 million registered voters.  The 2015 election, with about 1.5 million votes, had a 57% registered voter turnout and that had been the highest turnout in Alberta for a number of elections.

It seems reasonable to conclude that virtually all of these additional 400,000 voters voted United Conservative and that many of the 800,000 registered voters who didn't vote were younger or from more marginal communities.  From a quick look at the riding results, it seems that turnout in Edmonton considerably lagged turnout in the rest of the province (especially in the areas of Edmonton most favorable to the NDP.)

Perhaps a lot of the new conservative votes were ones in 2015 who were sick of the PCs and unsure of Wildrose so just stayed home or could be a lot of conservatives just assumed Alberta would always vote Conservative so didn't bother showing up and the NDP election poured cold water on that idea so they showed up.  if you look at federal numbers, I don't think the UCP vote total is too far off what the federal Tories usually get.

1.Provincial turnout is usually lower than federal turnout.

2.Not likely as about 200,000 more people voted in 2015 than in 2012 and turnout increased from 54% of registered voters to 57%.  I believe this provincial election will have the highest 'registered voter' turnout ever and either the highest or the second highest turnout of all eligible voters for a provincial election.

As far as I'm concerned, by far the simplest explanation is that there was a surge in turnout with nearly all of these new (provincial) voters voting for the UCP.  Maybe it's too simple.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I wonder if US leftists will learn from their Canadian cousins?  Or will they forge ahead to impose carbon taxes?

[brucejoel99]

I wonder if US leftists will learn from their Canadian cousins?  Or will they forge ahead to impose carbon taxes?

Ahh yes, we should learn from the party that lives in denial, with no plan for the future & nothing to offer people. The only thing that Jason Kenney & the UCP have offered is a failure to recognize that a changing economy & their climate change denial are a dead-end for the environment, the economy, & the future.

[mileslunn]

Any reason why Lethbridge has flipped from the Klein era.  During Klein's reign it was Lethbridge West that went PC while Lethbridge East went Liberal whereas last night Lethbridge East went solidly UCP while Lethbridge West (unless absentee ballots change things) went NDP.  Any reason for this?  Only I can think of is redistribution moved the university into a different riding or is there some other reason for this?

[adma]

Any reason why Lethbridge has flipped from the Klein era.  During Klein's reign it was Lethbridge West that went PC while Lethbridge East went Liberal whereas last night Lethbridge East went solidly UCP while Lethbridge West (unless absentee ballots change things) went NDP.  Any reason for this?  Only I can think of is redistribution moved the university into a different riding or is there some other reason for this?

Candidate strength (Ken Nicol for the Libs in the 90s/00s, Shannon Phillips for the NDP presently).  And also remember that the Alberta Libs' "left identity" was somewhat ambiguous in Nicol's time--perhaps more comparable to the Alberta Party presently than the NDP...

[brucejoel99]

Kenney has asked the Lt. Gov. to swear him in on April 30th. He'll then convene a spring session of the legislature during the third week of May.