Alberta Election 2019

[Hatman 🍁]

As someone who worked on that poll, I would be a bit cautious. It was leaked by the client (we seem to have a problem with that, lol).

While the methodology is sound, my worry is that because we had to disclose the client (this is necessary under Alberta election law), conservatives were less likely to want to do the poll in the first place, as it was for a union.

How many people in Alberta would even know what "unifor" is? Unless you are a serious political junkie you probably think its a forestry company

Well, it was mostly online so not hard to look them up if they wanted to. And we had done another poll for them a few weeks before.

[DL]

so comparing apples to apples a 13 point UCP lead is now a 4 point lead. The trend line is very clear!

[Hatman 🍁]

That much is true. 

[136or142]

So the final election results are:

NDP: 44
UCP: 42
AP: 1

What are the 44 NDP ridings?

I think you'd have to start with the 20 city of Edmonton ridings and the two Edmonton 'inner' suburbs of St. Albert and Sherwood Park.  That's half way there.  What are the rest?

[Krago]

So the final election results are:

NDP: 44
UCP: 42
AP: 1

What are the 44 NDP ridings?

I think you'd have to start with the 20 city of Edmonton ridings and the two Edmonton 'inner' suburbs of St. Albert and Sherwood Park.  That's half way there.  What are the rest?

Who gets the other 13%?

[136or142]

So the final election results are:

NDP: 44
UCP: 42
AP: 1

What are the 44 NDP ridings?

I think you'd have to start with the 20 city of Edmonton ridings and the two Edmonton 'inner' suburbs of St. Albert and Sherwood Park.  That's half way there.  What are the rest?

Who gets the other 13%?

That's not the percent of vote, 87 is the number of seats in the Alberta legislature.

[DC Al Fine]

EKOS poll for Unifor shows a tightening race, 46% for the UCP and 42% for the NDP

Interestingly enough, the regional results make it seem like the UCP wouldn't get screwed by FPTP. The right and left would run up the score in rural Alberta/Edmonton and split Calgary.

So the final election results are:

NDP: 44
UCP: 42
AP: 1

What are the 44 NDP ridings?

I think you'd have to start with the 20 city of Edmonton ridings and the two Edmonton 'inner' suburbs of St. Albert and Sherwood Park.  That's half way there.  What are the rest?

Both Lethbridge seats, Banff, Grand Prairie, a few rural northernish seats like Fort-Saskatchewan-Vegreville. That would leave 12-14ish seats in Calgary, which seems doable in a popular vote tie.

[DL]

FYI in 2015 the NDP won 16 out of 28 seats in Calgary CMA while winning the popular vote in Calgary by a slim 33-31 margin over the PCs.

If the NDP wins Calgary - say - by a 46-44 margin its not inconceivable that they could win 16 (or more) seats again.

[lilTommy]

Looks like Mainstreet has the NDP leading in both Edmonton and Calgary: Alberta is looking more and more like BC; NDP (unified left) vs UCP (unified right).

Edmonton
NDP - 46.4%
UCP - 37.8%
AP - 7.3%
FCP - 3.9%
Green - 2.4%
ALP - 2.2%

Calgary
NDP - 45%
UCP - 43.9%
AP - 3.9%
ALP - 3.9%
FCP - 1.6%
Green - 1.6%

Rest of Alberta
UCP - 65%
NDP - 23.3%
AP - 5.9%
FCP - 2.8%
ALP - 2%

[DL]

Also very much like Manitoba and Saskatchewan where the NDP tends to do very well in Winnipeg, Regina and Saskatoon but get annihilated in rural areas

[adma]

EKOS poll for Unifor shows a tightening race, 46% for the UCP and 42% for the NDP

Interestingly enough, the regional results make it seem like the UCP wouldn't get screwed by FPTP. The right and left would run up the score in rural Alberta/Edmonton and split Calgary.

So the final election results are:

NDP: 44
UCP: 42
AP: 1

What are the 44 NDP ridings?

I think you'd have to start with the 20 city of Edmonton ridings and the two Edmonton 'inner' suburbs of St. Albert and Sherwood Park.  That's half way there.  What are the rest?

Both Lethbridge seats, Banff, Grand Prairie, a few rural northernish seats like Fort-Saskatchewan-Vegreville. That would leave 12-14ish seats in Calgary, which seems doable in a popular vote tie.

Maybe salvaging something in Red Deer as well; plus FN-heavy northern seats like Lesser Slave Lake and the Peace River seats; some other Edmonton exurban seats like Leduc-Beaumont, Morinville-St Albert, Spruce Grove-Stony Plain...

[Smid]

Looks like Mainstreet has the NDP leading in both Edmonton and Calgary: Alberta is looking more and more like BC; NDP (unified left) vs UCP (unified right).

Edmonton
NDP - 46.4%
UCP - 37.8%
AP - 7.3%
FCP - 3.9%
Green - 2.4%
ALP - 2.2%

Calgary
NDP - 45%
UCP - 43.9%
AP - 3.9%
ALP - 3.9%
FCP - 1.6%
Green - 1.6%

Rest of Alberta
UCP - 65%
NDP - 23.3%
AP - 5.9%
FCP - 2.8%
ALP - 2%

I presume someone here runs leantossup.ca - how does this poll look through the lens of your model?

I can imagine that in Calgary, the NDP will run up their margins in the inner seats (Buffalo, Mountain View, Varsity, Klein, Currie), and the UCP will run up their margins in the Western suburbs (especially South of the Bow, but also in the North-West). The South-East will probably also go UCP, but less strongly so, and then the North-East goes NDP?

Edit: Have any of our number mapped Nenshi's latest victory? I think I did the previous one.

[Njall]

Looks like Mainstreet has the NDP leading in both Edmonton and Calgary: Alberta is looking more and more like BC; NDP (unified left) vs UCP (unified right).

Edmonton
NDP - 46.4%
UCP - 37.8%
AP - 7.3%
FCP - 3.9%
Green - 2.4%
ALP - 2.2%

Calgary
NDP - 45%
UCP - 43.9%
AP - 3.9%
ALP - 3.9%
FCP - 1.6%
Green - 1.6%

Rest of Alberta
UCP - 65%
NDP - 23.3%
AP - 5.9%
FCP - 2.8%
ALP - 2%

I presume someone here runs leantossup.ca - how does this poll look through the lens of your model?

I can imagine that in Calgary, the NDP will run up their margins in the inner seats (Buffalo, Mountain View, Varsity, Klein, Currie), and the UCP will run up their margins in the Western suburbs (especially South of the Bow, but also in the North-West). The South-East will probably also go UCP, but less strongly so, and then the North-East goes NDP?

Edit: Have any of our number mapped Nenshi's latest victory? I think I did the previous one.

I made this map a while ago. Purple is Nenshi (obviously), blue is Bill Smith.

[Njall]

So the final election results are:

NDP: 44
UCP: 42
AP: 1

What are the 44 NDP ridings?

I think you'd have to start with the 20 city of Edmonton ridings and the two Edmonton 'inner' suburbs of St. Albert and Sherwood Park.  That's half way there.  What are the rest?

My rough list is as follows (grouped roughly geographically as opposed to by margins):

23. Calgary-Buffalo
24. Calgary-Mountain View
25. Calgary-Currie
26. Calgary-Varsity
27. Calgary-Klein
28. Calgary-Bow
29. Calgary-East
30. Calgary-Cross
31. Calgary-Falconridge
32. Calgary-McCall
33. Lethbridge-West
34. Lethbridge-East
35. Morinville-St. Albert
36. Strathcona-Sherwood Park
37. Leduc-Beaumont
38. Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
39. Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
40. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin
41. Lesser Slave Lake
42. Peace River

For seats 43 and 44 (and 45, if you want a stable majority including the Speaker), it'd have to be some combination of Banff-Kananaskis, Grande Prairie, Central Peace-Notley, Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland, one of (or both) Red Deer seats, and/or another Calgary seat.

[DC Al Fine]

Debate will be April 4th.

[Krago]

So the final election results are:

NDP: 44
UCP: 42
AP: 1

What are the 44 NDP ridings?

I think you'd have to start with the 20 city of Edmonton ridings and the two Edmonton 'inner' suburbs of St. Albert and Sherwood Park.  That's half way there.  What are the rest?

My rough list is as follows (grouped roughly geographically as opposed to by margins):

...
40. Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin
...

I would love it if the Alberta election came down to Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, and the riding was decided by whichever party won Westerose.

[DL]

New poll by Research Co that was in field March 29-April 1:

Voting Intention (Decided Voters) in Alberta:

United Conservative Party (UCP) – 45%
New Democratic Party (NDP) – 40%
Alberta Party – 6%
Liberal Party – 3%
Other parties – 6%

Its getting interesting

[Tintrlvr]

If the NDP manages to win reelection, do we think the UCP survives, or does it collapse back into its constituent parts?

[Njall]

If the NDP manages to win reelection, do we think the UCP survives, or does it collapse back into its constituent parts?

To be honest, I think that too many of the leading folks from the legacy parties have already left the UCP and made their home in the Alberta Party, or one of the fringe right wing parties like the Freedom Conservatives or the Alberta Advantage Party. The UCP is now largely led by and made up of people from Jason Kenney's personal machine, as well as transplants from the federal Conservative Party. So I think it stays together as an entity. That said, there isn't really a go-to leader in the event that Kenney loses and steps down from the leadership, so it will be very interesting to see who would end up stepping up to take over.

[mileslunn]

Janet Brown Opinion research shows UCP with a 19 point lead.  It is a CATI which is what Nanos uses who has a good track record, but since it is out of whack with other pollsters I tend to think it is a bit closer, but would be nice if more polls were in the field.  Numbers in Edmonton and rest of Alberta are inline with other pollsters, main difference is in Calgary they show UCP solidly ahead rather than a competitive race.  Also CATI might skew towards older voters as all polls show UCP well ahead amongst older voters but NDP ahead amongst millennials so perhaps that is part of it.  Indeed millennial turnout will be key.  If they show up in droves it should be competitive and Notley might even win, but if they don't I expect Kenney to coast to a pretty easy victory.

UCP 53%
NDP 34%
Alberta Party 8%
Liberals 4%

[MaxQue]

If I understand well, the sponsor is the "Global Petroleum Show".

[Hatman 🍁]

looks like that just like Ontario, there is a large mode affect in polling (excluding Mainstreet). Phone surveys show a large UCP lead, online surveys show a tighter race.

[DL]

In Ontario there was remarkably little CATI polling done and that one poll i know of that was done with live-interviewers by Innovative had the NDP ahead so go figure...

[Smid]

Janet Brown Opinion research shows UCP with a 19 point lead.  It is a CATI which is what Nanos uses who has a good track record, but since it is out of whack with other pollsters I tend to think it is a bit closer, but would be nice if more polls were in the field.  Numbers in Edmonton and rest of Alberta are inline with other pollsters, main difference is in Calgary they show UCP solidly ahead rather than a competitive race.  Also CATI might skew towards older voters as all polls show UCP well ahead amongst older voters but NDP ahead amongst millennials so perhaps that is part of it.  Indeed millennial turnout will be key.  If they show up in droves it should be competitive and Notley might even win, but if they don't I expect Kenney to coast to a pretty easy victory.

UCP 53%
NDP 34%
Alberta Party 8%
Liberals 4%

I think turnout generally will be key... Turnout is frequently low in Alberta, I suspect because there are so few ridings that could go either way.  A by-product of this string of close polling results could be that it motivates suburban conservatives to go and vote because the result is in doubt.

[mileslunn]

Janet Brown Opinion research shows UCP with a 19 point lead.  It is a CATI which is what Nanos uses who has a good track record, but since it is out of whack with other pollsters I tend to think it is a bit closer, but would be nice if more polls were in the field.  Numbers in Edmonton and rest of Alberta are inline with other pollsters, main difference is in Calgary they show UCP solidly ahead rather than a competitive race.  Also CATI might skew towards older voters as all polls show UCP well ahead amongst older voters but NDP ahead amongst millennials so perhaps that is part of it.  Indeed millennial turnout will be key.  If they show up in droves it should be competitive and Notley might even win, but if they don't I expect Kenney to coast to a pretty easy victory.

UCP 53%
NDP 34%
Alberta Party 8%
Liberals 4%

I think turnout generally will be key... Turnout is frequently low in Alberta, I suspect because there are so few ridings that could go either way.  A by-product of this string of close polling results could be that it motivates suburban conservatives to go and vote because the result is in doubt.

Prior to 2015, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion it would be a conservative landslide thus why few bothered to show up.  I think since Kenney is more right wing and scares progressives more than past PC leaders, progressives will be motivated to show up while with conservatives hating Notley and even hating Trudeau more (who they think she is too cozy with) they will be motivated to show up as well.  It really comes down to do millennials show up as the NDP absolutely needs that to be even competitive.  Also the small numbers voting for Liberals and Alberta Party, can either win them over as neither can win much but they could play spoiler in some close ridings.