Alberta Election 2019

[King of Kensington]

Worst case for the NDP is that Rachel Notley will have succeeded in making Alberta another Saskatchewan politically.

[King of Kensington]

Since I don't know where to put non-US Political Geography and Demographics posts...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=317871.0

[DC Al Fine]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

There’s a mild chance the NDP could win. As in, 1 in 10 chance. The polls are tightening, but as far as I’m concerned, that impacts how big the opposition to the UCP is.

How are you voting Njall?

[adma]

Worst case for the NDP is that Rachel Notley will have succeeded in making Alberta another Saskatchewan politically.

Or, for that matter, another BC.  Because I can see the worst-case parallels with 1975 here; that is, ultimately no match for an aggressively united anti-socialist-hordes force, but still maintaining its prime-electable-alternative integrity.

Or to go back to Saskatchewan: the worst case'd likelier be closer to a 1986-style seat-total differential than the 1982-style seat total differential many were predicting because, y'know, Alberta just ain't a "socialistic" kind of province...

[Njall]

I haven't been following this recently and I just realized the election is in less than a week, it looks like the NDP are surging in the polls. Could they even win, or a UCP victory still a sure thing?

There’s a mild chance the NDP could win. As in, 1 in 10 chance. The polls are tightening, but as far as I’m concerned, that impacts how big the opposition to the UCP is.

How are you voting Njall?

Alberta Party, although I would have voted NDP in a riding with a close UCP-NDP race. I currently live in an Edmonton riding that should be a shoo-in for the NDP and I really like my ABP candidate, so I can vote for him without worrying about accidentally electing a UCP MLA.

[DC Al Fine]

Two new polls from Angus Reid and Pollara

Angus Reid:52-396

Pollara: 45-388

I suspect the NDP are getting into "couldn't quite get over the hump" territory. Maybe they pull it off if Alberta Party vote collapses (very possible if they are AnyoneButKenney) and there's a polling error.

[Pericles]

Probably the NDP has to hope for a BC 2013 scenario (except reversed).

[brucejoel99]

Two new polls from Angus Reid and Pollara

Angus Reid:52-396

Pollara: 45-388

I suspect the NDP are getting into "couldn't quite get over the hump" territory. Maybe they pull it off if Alberta Party vote collapses (very possible if they are AnyoneButKenney) and there's a polling error.

Probably the NDP has to hope for a BC 2013 scenario (except reversed).

At this point, my guess is just Alberta 2019 will be like BC 1975 rather than BC 2013: that is, the NDP (like 1975's BC NDP) will get the same 40+% of the vote that they got when they won in 2015 (like 1972), but they'll lose b/c the united right-wing is consolidated behind the UCP (like 1975's Social Credit).

[Njall]

Nanos is out:
UCP: 44%
NDP: 36%
ABP: 12%
LIB: 3%

Mainstreet will release their final public poll tomorrow.

Also, a total of 696,000 Albertans ended up voting in the advance polls. This is up from 235,000 in 2015, and represents about 47% of the number of total voters from 2015.

[Harlow]

The AP's vote share went the opposite direction I expected it to go in this campaign. I wonder how much of it is people who would otherwise be UCPers jumping ship.

[136or142]

The AP's vote share went the opposite direction I expected it to go in this campaign. I wonder how much of it is people who would otherwise be UCPers jumping ship.

From the news reports, the election campaign was extremely negative.  Sometimes that leads to polarization and third parties falling back, other times that leads to a 'pox on both your houses' (of the two main parties) and an increase in third party support.

Of course, that doesn't answer your question and I doubt this is something you didn't already know.

[mileslunn]

A whole slew of polls today, but all show UCP in lead with as small as 6 points for Pollara to as large as 14 points for Leger.  Most are 8-10 points so UCP definitely favoured, but slight chance of an NDP upset.  Nonetheless the fact it won't be a runaway landslide for the UCP does show that Alberta is not the conservative stronghold many think it is.  Mainstreet has the following seat projections:

UCP 54 seats
NDP 31 seats
Alberta party 1 seat
Liberals 1 seat

[Hatman 🍁]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

[Smid]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

My calculations on the redistribution tipped it into the NDP column on 2015 results, because of NDP polls to the North that were transferred in, and Liberal polls in the West that were transferred to Varsity. Of course, if Swann had run in those areas in 2015, it probably would be different, but without him on the ballot, I was guessing the NDP would be favoured to win the seat.

Edit: Actually, my mistake, it's NDP if you treat the PC/WRP separately, however if you amalgamate their votes, it becomes a UCP seat on the redistribution, and therefore classing it as a "pickup" is fair (even though we know that 1+1 =/= 2 in political mergers, treating it that way is probably the fairest way of working out which seats are gains/losses).

[136or142]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

The only other potential pickup I think is Grande Prairie.

[DL]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

Will you make an overall prediction of the seat count?

[DL]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

The only other potential pickup I think is Grande Prairie.

And Grande Prairie is notionally an NDP seat on the new boundaries

[136or142]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

Will you make an overall prediction of the seat count?

This is mine:
UCP: 56
NDP: 30
Alb: 1

Of course, all I've really done is apply the result of the 1975 B.C election to this, more or less.

1975
S.C: 35
NDP: 18
Liberal: 1
P.C: 1

(The P.C was Dr Scott Wallace from Oak Bay, the Liberal I believe was Gordon Gibson from North Vancouver-Seymour.)

NDP predictions:
Edmonton CMA: 20 of 27 ridings
Calgary CMA: 8 of 30 ridings
rest of province: 2 of 30 ridings.

[Harlow]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

Will you make an overall prediction of the seat count?

This is mine:
UCP: 56
NDP: 30
Alb: 1

Of course, all I've really done is apply the result of the 1975 B.C election to this, more or less.

1975
S.C: 35
NDP: 18
Liberal: 1
P.C: 1

(The P.C was Dr Scott Wallace from Oak Bay, the Liberal I believe was Gordon Gibson from North Vancouver-Seymour.)

NDP predictions:
Edmonton CMA: 20 of 27 ridings
Calgary CMA: 8 of 30 ridings
rest of province: 2 of 30 ridings.

According to election-atlas.ca, Gibson was from North Vancouver-Capilano.

[Hatman 🍁]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

Will you make an overall prediction of the seat count?

Nothing official. We'll see how much time I have tomorrow.

[brucejoel99]

Alright y'all, it's officially April 16th, Election Day, in Alberta so you know what that means: it's final prediction time! Please feel free to post your predictions of how you think the election will have played out by this time tomorrow.

As for me, I'm gonna say screw it, go w/ my heart (likely stupidly), & roll the dice to say:
NDP 43 (41.3%)
UCP 43 (39.4%)
AP 1 - Clark (12%)
LIB 0 (3.2%)
Freedom 0 (2.2%)

NDP minority government (possibly w/ Greg Clark providing confidence & supply), just b/c it'd be amazing to hopefully see the NDP snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

[beesley]

My final prediction is as follows, let's see what happens.

Gonna give the Alberta Party a second seat on a whim.

UCP: 57 - 8 in Edmonton (South, South West, St Albert, Morinville, Strathcona-SP, Sherwood Park, Leduc-Beaumont, Spruce Grove) and all seats lost not listed below.  
NDP: 27 - 19 in Edmonton (all except McClung and the above 8 ) ; 6 in Calgary (Buffalo, Varsity, Currie, Klein, Mountain View, North) ; 2 in the rest (two Lethbridge seats.)
AP: 2 - Mandel comes up the middle in McClung and wins by 1/2%, Clark is re-elected.
ALP: 0 - Khan loses Mountain View.
FCP: 0 - Fildebrandt loses significantly in Chestermere.

[DC Al Fine]

My guess:
UCP: 53
NDP: 32
AP: 1

[DC Al Fine]

Our internal polls do not show the Liberals winning a seat BTW. The NDP are winning Mountain View, perhaps their only pickup of the night.

Is Khan competitive in Mountainview or is he well behind?

[Tintrlvr]

UCP: 48
NDP: 38
AP: 1
LIB: 0

UCP leads by 7% in the popular vote (45-38), but the NDP is helped by an inefficient distribution of UCP votes, though not by enough to hold on to power.