Will Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all vote the same way?

[°Leprechaun]

If the other four swing states, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada are won by Trump, Biden needs one electoral vote in Nebraska or all 4 in Maine, the former being more likely, plus all three of the northern blue wall states.
That would be 269 or if he wins the extra electoral vote 270 for the win.

Hopefully he won't take Minnesota and Virginia for granted.
Those two are likely Biden of course.
Minnesota hasn't gone red since 1972.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm inclined to say yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, given the S numbers where Baldwin, Slotkin and Casey are fav yes

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

No.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No.

Lol what happened to your Wzi and AZ Biden is ahead, if Biden wins Eday he will win the big 3 like last time

[Vern]

Probably not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably not.

We have been winning the blue wall since 1992 Bill Clinton, with exception of 2010/2016 WI is +6 Biden

[xavier110]

They’ve voted the same way for president over the last forty years or so. I’d be a little surprised if they didn’t fall in line again.

[DS0816]

…

We have been winning the blue wall since 1992 Bill Clinton,…

George W. Bush, with his elections in 2000 and 2004, became and is the only Republican-affiliated U.S. President who won two elections and never once carried any of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

In 1988, George Bush Sr. became the second winning Republican, following 1924 Calvin Coolidge (as the state carried for its own, Progessive nominee Robert La Follette), to not carry Wisconsin.

In 1968, Richard Nixon won a Republican pickup for U.S. President, and he became the first from his party to win without Pennsylvania and Michigan. (After then-Democratic incumbent Lyndon Johnson carried 44 state, with his full-term election win in 1964, the 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey held 13 states which included both Pennsylvania and Michigan.)

The “Blue Wall” ended. It ended, in part, because of voting patterns having changed. Fellow Rust Belt state Ohio—which voted for all winners in 14 consecutive cycles (1964 to 2016)—and this transformed Pennsylvania and Michigan, its two immediate neighbors which are also Top 10 populous states, into leading bellwether states. Along with Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are the nation’s top bellwether states. With Ohio having ended its streak, the longest running streak—now four consecutive election cycles; here in 2024 it will become five—are shared by Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

The path to winning United States presidential elections runs through Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

[walleye26]

I think yes. Wisconsin might be a wild card since it is the first “fair” state legislative elections this year since 2010. That could make Wisconsin a bit more D-leaning.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think yes. Wisconsin might be a wild card since it is the first “fair” state legislative elections this year since 2010. That could make Wisconsin a bit more D-leaning.

I think Wisconsin is more likely to be the sole Trump state of the pack than the sole Biden state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think yes. Wisconsin might be a wild card since it is the first “fair” state legislative elections this year since 2010. That could make Wisconsin a bit more D-leaning.

I think Wisconsin is more likely to be the sole Trump state of the pack than the sole Biden state.

Not really since Baldwin is winning by +12 and she won her last race by 10 this isn't 22 anymore where Johnson squeaks bye and he got a bump from IAN too

MI was likely to go R but Craig ran for Mayor and handed the S and Prez race on a silver player to Slotkin just like he dropped out Gov race in 22

[Farmlands]

I think yes. Wisconsin might be a wild card since it is the first “fair” state legislative elections this year since 2010. That could make Wisconsin a bit more D-leaning.

Nobody's going to show up to vote in a Presidential election, when they otherwise wouldn't, because of fair legislative maps. Just doesn't flow that way.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I think yes. Wisconsin might be a wild card since it is the first “fair” state legislative elections this year since 2010. That could make Wisconsin a bit more D-leaning.

This is a terminally online take

[walleye26]

I think yes. Wisconsin might be a wild card since it is the first “fair” state legislative elections this year since 2010. That could make Wisconsin a bit more D-leaning.

Nobody's going to show up to vote in a Presidential election, when they otherwise wouldn't, because of fair legislative maps. Just doesn't flow that way.

It’s not a turnout question, it’s a persuasion question. I’m not suggesting that people will turn out just for that, but rather the the people that do turnout will be persuaded to vote a bit more Dem-leaning, especially in places like Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Brown counties. The WisGOP is in a bit of a weird spot right now (see: recall attempts against Vos for certifying the election, unable to land a real solid candidate against Tammy Baldwin, etc) that might make the traditional GOP suburban areas move further left. I really think that WOW moving even a few points left would be really hard for the GOP to overcome.

[wnwnwn]

No. These states are some of the most protectionist leaning  ones, but other than that they have their differences.
In any case, I suppose Biden will focus more on PA.

[Eraserhead]

Probably but if it ends up being a very close race that is far from certain.

[PeteB]

Unless the election is a landslide for either candidate, than no - they are statistically unlikely to vote the same way, all of them being swing states.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless the election is a landslide for either candidate, than no - they are statistically unlikely to vote the same way, all of them being swing states.

Well usually swing states generally all go the same way in most elections.

[PeteB]

Unless the election is a landslide for either candidate, than no - they are statistically unlikely to vote the same way, all of them being swing states.

Well usually swing states generally all go the same way in most elections.

And most elections result in a clear electoral college domination of one candidate.  Here we have a very close election (at least it looks like that for now).  There, a few thousand votes in each swing state can make or break a candidate.  It is unlikely all swing states in that (closely fought) scenario vote in the same pattern.  Just ask Al Gore.🤨

[7,052,770]

Unless the election is a landslide for either candidate, than no - they are statistically unlikely to vote the same way, all of them being swing states.

I don't think that's true because they aren't independent from each other. Whatever factors make Pennsylvania flip or not flip will likely apply to Wisconsin and Michigan too.

One wildcard might be the Muslims in Michigan, but even then we're talking 2% in Michigan vs. 1% in the other two.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes they will and these threads are repetitive

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless the election is a landslide for either candidate, than no - they are statistically unlikely to vote the same way, all of them being swing states.

I don't think that's true because they aren't independent from each other. Whatever factors make Pennsylvania flip or not flip will likely apply to Wisconsin and Michigan too.

One wildcard might be the Muslims in Michigan, but even then we're talking 2% in Michigan vs. 1% in the other two.

If we’re going by the electorate it’s more 1% to 0.5% of the electorates since Muslims turn out at lower rates.

[ꙮ]

They've all voted for the same candidate since 92, but that's somewhat coincidental. They've got similar partisanship, but have diverged in margin by enough to split in a close election multiple times.

	Pennsylvania	Michigan	Wisconsin
1992	D+9.0 (+17.9)	D+7.4 (+17.1)	D+4.4 (+14.3)
1996	D+9.2 (+30.4)	D+13.2 (+29.7)	D+10.3 (+27.1)
2000	D+4.2	D+5.1	D+0.2
2004	D+2.5	D+3.4	D+0.4
2008	D+10.3	D+16.4	D+13.9
2012	D+5.4	D+9.4	D+7.9
2016	R+0.7	R+0.2	R+0.8
2020	D+1.2	D+2.8	D+0.6

Difference of 3-6 points between their margins in all elections except the last 2. 2016 was by far the closest. Sure, these aren't huge gaps, but if the elections is close you could easily have them split. Frankly it's pure coincidence that they didn't in 2000, 2004, or 2016.

[ꙮ]

None of that matters though, because all 50 states are voting Kennedy this year. All hail the brain worm.