VA Early Voting #s

[ElectionsGuy]

Looking at the early voting numbers, either the polls are headed for a huge miss, or election day turnout, especially in much of rural VA is going to be massive.

Or... the polls can be accurate too. This early voting data is not really telling much of a story. If anything, I expected much more early vote by now.

Is the premise here that the early vote total is "large" and therefore good for Democrats? How did we go through 2020 and still we can't comprehend how Dem skewed the early vote is and how R-skewed the election day vote is? That pattern is going to continue.

My point is that if the polls are accurate, I would expect massive ED turnout, especially in more Republican areas of the state, which would offset the early vote.

Well, I think you can expect that given we know large majorities of Republicans vote on election day, and Trump was completely counted out last year by the folks who were too deep into early voting statistics.

Also, a few Virginia polls I've seen so far indicate about 40% of the electorate is voting early. If that's the case... The Dems should want 2017 turnout or lower, otherwise it looks to be below that.

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now we are at roughly 937,000 early votes cast.  Though with uncounted absentee ballots that were received or in transit back, the number is probably more like 970,000.  Friday and especially Saturday should be big days in most of the state.  So I'd peg overall early vote close to 1.2 million when all ballots are received.  1 million (and definitely less) would have been terrible for Terry.  1.5 million would have been amazing.  So I'd say this is just on course.  Though reports suggest that a higher proportion of early voters are Democrats than last time, especially in the Richmond area.  That's good because there seems to be an odd surge there, especially in Chesterfield. 

It appears that the areas which are surging more than usual are battlegrounds.  Perhaps the polarization in those areas is causing more turnout on both sides.  But at least for now it looks like Dems are outperforming in those battleground areas.

NOVA turnout is obviously very high and Fairfax is now well above the state average.  But that was to be expected when the satellite offices opened. 

[lfromnj]

Right now we are at roughly 937,000 early votes cast.  Though with uncounted absentee ballots that were received or in transit back, the number is probably more like 970,000.  Friday and especially Saturday should be big days in most of the state.  So I'd peg overall early vote close to 1.2 million when all ballots are received.  1 million (and definitely less) would have been terrible for Terry.  1.5 million would have been amazing.  So I'd say this is just on course.  Though reports suggest that a higher proportion of early voters are Democrats than last time, especially in the Richmond area.  That's good because there seems to be an odd surge there, especially in Chesterfield. 

It appears that the areas which are surging more than usual are battlegrounds.  Perhaps the polarization in those areas is causing more turnout on both sides.  But at least for now it looks like Dems are outperforming in those battleground areas.

NOVA turnout is obviously very high and Fairfax is now well above the state average.  But that was to be expected when the satellite offices opened. 

The strongest counties in Richmond area are are Goochland and  Hanover

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now we are at roughly 937,000 early votes cast.  Though with uncounted absentee ballots that were received or in transit back, the number is probably more like 970,000.  Friday and especially Saturday should be big days in most of the state.  So I'd peg overall early vote close to 1.2 million when all ballots are received.  1 million (and definitely less) would have been terrible for Terry.  1.5 million would have been amazing.  So I'd say this is just on course.  Though reports suggest that a higher proportion of early voters are Democrats than last time, especially in the Richmond area.  That's good because there seems to be an odd surge there, especially in Chesterfield. 

It appears that the areas which are surging more than usual are battlegrounds.  Perhaps the polarization in those areas is causing more turnout on both sides.  But at least for now it looks like Dems are outperforming in those battleground areas.

NOVA turnout is obviously very high and Fairfax is now well above the state average.  But that was to be expected when the satellite offices opened. 

The strongest counties in Richmond area are are Goochland and  Hanover

The voter analysis dives into who is actually voting in those counties, and Dems are voting at a higher rate.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, TargetEarly estimates that the early/mail vote so far is

Dems 463K (54.0%)
Reps 264K (30.7%)
Unaffiliated 132K (15.3%)
= 858K

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

(looks like they're a day behind)

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

[wbrocks67]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

[SnowLabrador]

FWIW, TargetEarly estimates that the early/mail vote so far is

Dems 463K (54.0%)
Reps 264K (30.7%)
Unaffiliated 132K (15.3%)
= 858K

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

(looks like they're a day behind)

My guess is that's far from an insurmountable hill for Youngkin to climb on Election Day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

[Non Swing Voter]

FWIW, TargetEarly estimates that the early/mail vote so far is

Dems 463K (54.0%)
Reps 264K (30.7%)
Unaffiliated 132K (15.3%)
= 858K

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

(looks like they're a day behind)

My guess is that's far from an insurmountable hill for Youngkin to climb on Election Day.

It's going to be a lot higher than 858K by Election Day + all the mail in ballots trickling in.  Definitely over a million but should be much more.  Current total is over 940K.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1454135497173917711

Looks like the rain has dampened turnout a bit today.  But tomorrow is the key day.  I expect a surge because it's the last weekend before Election Day.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I BLESS THE RAINS DOWN IN NOOOOOOVAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Non Swing Voter]

I BLESS THE RAINS DOWN IN NOOOOOOVAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I BLESS THE RAINS DOWN IN NOOOOOOVAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[Xing]

Thank goodness for memes, since to me, they're the only bearable thing about these threads right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thank goodness for memes, since to me, they're the only bearable thing about these threads right now.

"I must laugh, because if I cannot laugh I will die" - Abraham Lincoln

[It’s so Joever]

In all seriousness this rain is annoying. Some of us had Halloween plans, and by some of us, I don’t mean me (but I would prefer sun anyways)

[Non Swing Voter]

Turnout Updates from key areas (as of yesterday):

Statewide Avg. = 15.8%

Fairfax = 17.3% (missing yesterday's mail ins)

Arlington = 19.5%

Alexandria = 18.7%

Richmond City = 13.2%

Charlottesville City = 15.7%

Henrico = 16.2%

Chesterfield = 21%

Hampton City = 13.4%

Loudoun = 16.3%

Prince William = 15.7%

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

NYT only has precinct data after the elections are over anyways. Good for analyzing long term trends, but not helpful the night of.
I’ll check out vpap. In all honesty, I only need county level data, especially for a state like Virginia where the counties are mostly fairly small.

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

NYT only has precinct data after the elections are over anyways. Good for analyzing long term trends, but not helpful the night of.
I’ll check out vpap. In all honesty, I only need county level data, especially for a state like Virginia where the counties are mostly fairly small.

Countywide will work downstate but not for NOVA.  There are drastically different parts of Loudoun and Fairfax.  So knowing where the vote is coming from is key.  There are suburban areas like Great Falls and Vienna that could be pretty even.  Whereas there are downtown areas of Reston and McLean that are pretty much all condo skyscrapers and will go to T-Mac by extremely wide margins.

Similar for Loudoun.  The inner and city parts have big condo complexes.  But there are a lot literal farmlands near the WV border.

[It’s so Joever]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

NYT only has precinct data after the elections are over anyways. Good for analyzing long term trends, but not helpful the night of.
I’ll check out vpap. In all honesty, I only need county level data, especially for a state like Virginia where the counties are mostly fairly small.

Countywide will work downstate but not for NOVA.  There are drastically different parts of Loudoun and Fairfax.  So knowing where the vote is coming from is key.  There are suburban areas like Great Falls and Vienna that could be pretty even.  Whereas there are downtown areas of Reston and McLean that are pretty much all condo skyscrapers and will go to T-Mac by extremely wide margins.

Similar for Loudoun.  The inner and city parts have big condo complexes.  But there are a lot literal farmlands near the WV border.

Yes but looking at the Independent cities in NoVa can give a bit of an idea.

[Non Swing Voter]

Remember when Atlas thought Ossoff and Warnock wouldn’t win? Lol.

Definitely recall a Montana avatar saying that. 

Ugh the needle soothed me that night. It caught that sh**t right away. It's really too bad we're not getting the needle this year.

I never liked the needle.  I like following the precinct maps. 

You got precinct level maps?!
Who is your dealer? Hook me up.

Doesn't even NYTimes do precinct level?  I'd also check on vpap.org, they usually have really good election data.

NYT only has precinct data after the elections are over anyways. Good for analyzing long term trends, but not helpful the night of.
I’ll check out vpap. In all honesty, I only need county level data, especially for a state like Virginia where the counties are mostly fairly small.

Countywide will work downstate but not for NOVA.  There are drastically different parts of Loudoun and Fairfax.  So knowing where the vote is coming from is key.  There are suburban areas like Great Falls and Vienna that could be pretty even.  Whereas there are downtown areas of Reston and McLean that are pretty much all condo skyscrapers and will go to T-Mac by extremely wide margins.

Similar for Loudoun.  The inner and city parts have big condo complexes.  But there are a lot literal farmlands near the WV border.

Yes but looking at the Independent cities in NoVa can give a bit of an idea.

Well we know those will go for Terry by a wide margin.  If there is any drop off it's going to be in the wealthy suburban areas (Great Falls, Vienna, parts of McLean, Ashburn, etc.).