How many CDs has Biden won?

[lfromnj]

Also given the rules in FL, you can't really cut minority seats once they exist, FL has quite strict rules which need to follow, and eliminating an existing minority seat is a no-no

There are no minority seats eliminated in that map. Murphy is not a minority seat

I was referring to the suggestion of cutting Soto instead of Murphy earlier in the thread

Even Soto's isn't really a minority seat, its only 40% hispanic total population although the CVAP effect is probably relatively high due to it being Puerto Ricans.

[VAR]

IN-05: Trump +2.2

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329482042724192258

Edit: Trump +12 in 2016

[VAR]

MN-03: Biden +19
MN-08: Trump +14

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329841995209207816

[VAR]

MI-11: Biden +4.7

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1329796517981351936

[Skill and Chance]

MI-11: Biden +4.7

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1329796517981351936

That's a flip, right?  But Trump still won MI-08?

[VAR]

OH-01: Trump +3

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1329864208452890625

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329879767353593868?s=20

[VAR]

Joe Biden carried GA-06 by 11 points. Trump +1 in 2016.

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1330004711475441669

[VAR]

GA-11: Trump +14 (Trump +25 in 2016)

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329978054681235456

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

GA-11: Trump +14 (Trump +25 in 2016)

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329978054681235456

PSA to the Republicans angling for 10-4 in GA. These Atlanta-Appalachia seats you keep wanting to draw have swung 10-15 points towards Biden from Clinton '16 alone, and in every single election for the past decade+, metro Atlanta has moved left. Gerrymander at your own risk!

[Pericles]

IN-05: Trump +2.2

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1329482042724192258

That's still 10 points less than in 2016.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here is a list compiling the results in every CDs

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uPaQL4Izv-7nbreQA7N5NVWAduulCtkyw8qZN7bpjCg/htmlview#gid=0

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here is a list compiling the results in every CDs

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uPaQL4Izv-7nbreQA7N5NVWAduulCtkyw8qZN7bpjCg/htmlview#gid=0

Thanks!

[politicallefty]

So far, with TX-13 in, it looks like the only Trump >80% district is KY-05. I'm sure AL-04 will easily be there as well when all is said and done and that'll almost certainly be the top Trump district in the country.

I also have to say I'm surprised that OK-03 voted to the left of OK-02.

[Roll Roons]

MI-06 went to Trump by under 5 points, but Fred Upton outran him by 11:

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1330184763680944128

[Devils30]

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

[Pericles]

Has anyone figured out which districts had the biggest swings to Biden and Trump respectively?

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

Problem for them is the State House was just as vulnerable as their House seats, I did a uniform swing and Dems could win the state House while only gaining the 23rd and the 24th (though McCaul and Roy have very tight races).

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1330268949225873411

[Tekken_Guy]

Has anyone figured out which districts had the biggest swings to Biden and Trump respectively?

TX is going to be interesting in redistricting because there are so many GOPers to protect, new seats to add. They may have honestly been better off had they lost a couple this year, they can pack Austin but its really hard to see them keeping the whole delegation, adding 2 of the new 3 seats and not losing 5-7 seats if there is a Dem wave in 2026 etc.

In addition they have to decide if TX-15, 28, 34 are worth going for. All 3 are meant as D vote sinks but hard to pack them even more. If they try to make them more R, then that is fewer voters to shore up 10, 21, 25, 31. It's one of the tougher gerrymander calls out there.

Problem for them is the State House was just as vulnerable as their House seats, I did a uniform swing and Dems could win the state House while only gaining the 23rd and the 24th (though McCaul and Roy have very tight races).

For Trump, it's definitely the Cuban and RGV districts. Biden I assume is somewhere in Atlanta or the major TX metros.

[Devils30]

Biden won GA-6 55-44% after Hillary lost it by 1.5%. That one is probably close to or at the top.

[Smash255]

Biden won GA-6 55-44% after Hillary lost it by 1.5%. That one is probably close to or at the top.

This was also a Romney +23.3 district

[Devils30]

Remember when everyone was upset in June 2017 after that special election. That district did exactly the reverse of PA-12 in the late 2000s, early 2010s.

[S019]

GA-11: Trump +14 (Trump +25 in 2016)

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329978054681235456

PSA to the Republicans angling for 10-4 in GA. These Atlanta-Appalachia seats you keep wanting to draw have swung 10-15 points towards Biden from Clinton '16 alone, and in every single election for the past decade+, metro Atlanta has moved left. Gerrymander at your own risk!

I think the Republicans will probably cede the Gwinnett seat and try to crack Cobb, I'm genuinely not sure if it'll last the decade though.

[Skill and Chance]

GA-11: Trump +14 (Trump +25 in 2016)

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329978054681235456

PSA to the Republicans angling for 10-4 in GA. These Atlanta-Appalachia seats you keep wanting to draw have swung 10-15 points towards Biden from Clinton '16 alone, and in every single election for the past decade+, metro Atlanta has moved left. Gerrymander at your own risk!

I think the Republicans will probably cede the Gwinnett seat and try to crack Cobb, I'm genuinely not sure if it'll last the decade though.

The wisest thing they could do would be to try to flip GA-02 and instead concede 5 seats in the Atlanta area (4 would need to be black majority CVAP for this to hold up in court).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

GA-11: Trump +14 (Trump +25 in 2016)

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1329978054681235456

PSA to the Republicans angling for 10-4 in GA. These Atlanta-Appalachia seats you keep wanting to draw have swung 10-15 points towards Biden from Clinton '16 alone, and in every single election for the past decade+, metro Atlanta has moved left. Gerrymander at your own risk!

I think the Republicans will probably cede the Gwinnett seat and try to crack Cobb, I'm genuinely not sure if it'll last the decade though.

The wisest thing they could do would be to try to flip GA-02 and instead concede 5 seats in the Atlanta area (4 would need to be black majority CVAP for this to hold up in court).

I don't think you can "trade-out" VRA seats to hit some quota. It doesn't work like that.