Chase Smith does worse than Goldwater, largely because of sexism.
She wins nothing.
Wallace sweeps the South (with the exception of Texas), while Johnson wins everything else.
I think she'd probably win at least 1 of ID, NE, or KS.
I refer you to this answer, which explains it far better than I could.
If Wallace runs in this scenario (which is probably pretty likely), yeah he definitely wins Mississippi and Alabama, likely GA/SC/LA too. Same Southern states that Goldwater won in other words. But LBJ still wins the rest of the South as well as Arizona, so his win is just bigger.
If for some reason Wallace or another Dixiecrat doesn’t run third party, there is a very real chance of a 50 state sweep. The Deep South would have no reason to vote for Smith as she was moderate on civil rights and sexism would be a bigger factor there than most of the rest of the country. They might begrudgingly vote for LBJ, still a southern Democrat, by default.
However, Smith's loss wouldn’t be just or even — in my opinion — mostly because of sexism. LBJ successfully made Goldwater out to be a dangerous extremist who would start a nuclear war based on remarks he made about using nukes in Vietnam. That would be even easier to do to Smith, as she called for a preemptive direct nuclear strike on the USSR. So the situation would be even worse for her than Goldwater on every level: Yes sexism would be a factor, she could be even more easily portrayed as someone not to be trusted with nuclear weapons, her moderate views on civil rights and other social issues would give conservatives in the South and elsewhere no reason to vote for her, and LBJ would still be a popular incumbent running on the legacy of the martyred JFK. It would be an absolute rout. LBJ got the biggest popular vote share in the modern era as it was; against Smith he might have racked up Thomas Jefferson or James Monroe level numbers.
The ONLY area I see Smith improving on over Goldwater is New England, where she was from and where Yankee Republicans recoiled against Goldwater but may not have done so against her to the same extent. I still doubt she wins any states though. Vermont and of course Maine would probably be her best shots.
