Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Can one statewide poll compel me to change my assumptions on one of my utilities? Here is a map that I posted on page 81:

  How states have voted from 2000 on:

all 5 for the Republican
4 R, 1 D
3 R, 2D  
3 D, 2 R
4 D, 1 R
all five for the Democrat

YES! If a poll showed that Connecticut were starting to lean toward Trump by giving him a 48-48 tie in approval, then  one might need to look to the last time in which Connecticut went to the Republican in a nationwide, non-blowout election. That, in fact, would be 1976

 

at which time several states now solidly D were going Republican. It might be hard to imagine California, Washington, Illinois, and New Jersey going Republican... but maybe the Republicans this time were peeling off significant constituencies that by demographics went Republican in the "Nixon-Ford" years but not in the last five Presidential elections.

In recent years I have assumed that blowout losses for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the Mountain and Deep South have suggested that such states are safe for any Republican in 2020. You can dispute the poll by Hendrix College if you wish as a potential outlier... but even if it is wrong by only 5% it suggests that President Trump is losing support by people that most of us have reasonably assumed has been locked up indefinitely. Nothing in this poll suggests that any state that has not been close for a Republican nominee for President since the 1990's is veering toward him. On the other hand, states that were reliably D into the 1990's may now be showing why they were so then... again. It would be interesting to see what constituency has gone D in such a state as Arkansas.

I will figure at this point that, although how states have voted since 2000 have gone D at any one time don't change in my map of electoral history (for example I see no relevance to the fact that Colorado split its electoral choices for President between Clinton and Dole, and that Clinton never won Virginia, then other states voting for Bill Clinton twice in the 1990's (Arkansas, Kentucky,  Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia) or once (Arizona, Georgia, and Montana) but never for a Democratic nominee since then is now relevant.

Since 2000:
4 D, 1 R
3 D, 2 R
3 R, 2D  
4 R, 1 D
Since 1992:
One time for a Democratic nominee in 1992 or 1996
for Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996
all 7 for the Republican*

...

It's interesting that the block of states that voted for Bill Clinton twice but voted for no other Democrats are probably all less likely to flip than the states which voted for him only once and voted for no other Democrats.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1272514699578531840

But those numbers for Trump seem to have improved.

They've improved relative to June 2016, when a bunch of Republicans who didn't vote for him in the primary were still saying they didn't like him solely on the basis that they thought he was certain to lose in November. When he ended up winning, a lot of those people no longer had any reason to say they didn't like him.

Of course, this also means that if he loses this November, he might be one of the only presidents to have a lower favorable rating as an ex-president than he had while in office, as those same people can go back to being mad at him for losing.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I have made a decision that a second user needs to join my muted list.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Don't look now, but the 538 average now has Trump approval higher than it was exactly one year ago (43.3% vs 41.3%)

I mean... it’s still terrible.

I feel like this is a great time remind everyone that after the 2016 Republican National Convention, Trump actually took a brief, narrow lead in the national horserace polling. The fact that he hasn't been able to duplicate that this year is very ominous size for his chances.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

You really think the only possibilities for Trump are 46% and 47%?

Yes.

He hasn’t lost much, if any, support over the last 4 years. 2020 will be similar to 2016 with what the result looks like, but the underlying mechanisms are very similar to Obama’s re-election in 2012 - almost perfect match, actually (but ofc Trump isn’t winning the pop vote).

Why does Trump deserve a second term?

Don't feed the troll.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Rassy is on to something by now.

Trump approval: 53-46, Trump +7

LOL!

Fixed