Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[woodley park]

There's always the chance of a shocker result blowing up Trump's electoral map. Texas flipping blue, for example, will render Pennsylvania and Florida entirely irrelevant (not to mention Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio). Clinton states + Texas = 270. Don't laugh off Texas flipping -- it is no more impossible than a bigoted grifter and sexual assaulter winning in the 'nice' Upper Midwest.

[woodley park]

This approval rating knocks pbower map of 413 EC votes that he keeps up out of consideration. As I keep saying Cook has already stated it's a 291-47 EC map and a 51/49 Senate seat majority

That poll is a clear outlier.

[woodley park]

TX probably wont go to Biden

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania won't go to Trump in 2016. They have voted blue for like thirty years and aren't about to switch for a corrupt, bigoted, sex offender.

[woodley park]

The Amy Coney Barrett nomination has something to do with the spike in Trump polls, Sabato said soccer mom's based on events are gonna keep swinging back and forth. We see that in the flux in polling. Don't underestimate Trump since he has a viable female as SCOTUS nominee in his back pocket, with soccer moms. Covid swung the election to Biden and Amy Coney Barrett can swing the election back to Trump.

Especially, since D's keep talking about nullifying the nomination by Crt packing to overturn Citizens United and they don't even have the majority yet

ACB isn't going to swing soccer moms back to Trump. He has been far too toxic on gender issues, plus the pandemic has been far too disruptive for him to turn his standing around just by naming a woman to the Supreme Court.

[woodley park]

Morning Consult remains in the field. With today's update, they find that Trump's approval rating has plummeted to -18%.

40/58

Where are the good polls coming from? The ones pushing Trump up on RCP and 538.

[woodley park]

AOC has pushed Pelosi too far to the left and this is Pelosi last term as Speaker or minority leader, the D's put term limits on Speakers, and Pelosi is vulnerable to a Cherri Bustos challenge if she bucks the party. But, there is a CR due on 12/1 and Leader McConnell or Trump  can make D's stay in DC if they don't agree to another stimulus. Trump said he wanted a stand alone stimulus by 10/1, Pelosi is the obstructionist, they can sign a stand alone stimulus until Biden is sworn in. But Pelosi has gone too far. ACB will get to the Crt, Murkowski will likely vote for ACB in a lame duck session, she said she will wait til after election but she confirmed all of Conservative justices except for Kavanaugh.

All will have sway if Trump wins narrowly or Biden wins in a landslide

aOC wants to go full socialist and Barrett Crt is likely to moderate alot of those programs in a 6/3 or 6/5 Crt

Pelosi is not the obstructionist. The House passed a relief bill months ago, but McConnell has done nothing in the Senate, and Trump blew up talks for something new last week.

Thing is, Trump doesn’t seem to understand that he is to blame when things don’t get better — nobody thinks to go blame the Speaker of the House or the Senate Majority Leader.

[woodley park]

Is there any correlation between AP approval and re-election when it is this close to election day? I can't image 41% is a good sign.. let alone the disapproval over 60%.

[woodley park]

Down to 42.4% on 538, with 13 days to go..