Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[woodley park]

North Carolina:

No approval (or even favorable) numbers on Trump,  but they can't be good. In a sample that voted 47-44 for Trump over Clinton (which is about how the vote split in 2016), Biden is up 50-46.

Incumbent Senator T-t-t-tom Tillis  (whoops ... he's not the late Mel Tillis) is in t-t-t-t-trouble at 47-39 with the challenger in the lead.

Is his name pronounced just like regular Tom? Or the same way we pronounce the "th" in the? 'Th'om Tillis sounds right; he's been such an incompetent, spineless dope so it suits him perfectly.

[woodley park]

Apologies for the double post:

Two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of coronavirus: poll

In the poll, 67 percent of respondents said that they disapproved of how the president has handled the pandemic, which was killed more than 130,000 people in the country, while 33 percent said that they approved of Trump's performance.

It's the highest level of dissatisfaction with the president's response to COVID-19 since the pandemic began.

The eight percent drop in Trump's approval rating can in part be attributed to his falling stock among independent voters. In the mid-June poll, the president's approval rating among independents was 40 percent; now it's at 29 percent. Conversely, his disapproval among the pivotal voting bloc went from 59 percent to 73 percent.

End times.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/506718-two-thirds-of-americans-disapprove-of-trumps-handling-of-coronavirus

[woodley park]

From The Hill:

Poll finds Trump with lead in Missouri, but numbers are slipping

What an utterly disastrous headline. Imagine it is July 2012 and the Obama campaign is trying to be comforted by a narrowing lead in Maine.

[woodley park]

Quinnipiac, July 9-13, 1273 RV (1-month change)

Approve 36 (-6)
Disapprove 60 (+5)

Strongly approve 25 (-7)
Strongly disapprove 54 (+6)

Biden 52 (+3), Trump 37 (-4)

Quinnipiac has consistently been a bad pollster for Trump, and this is not quite their worst result for him (33/61 in Aug. 2017), but...yikes.

That... is ugly. And yet, in light of the 'historic corruption', the rally fallout, the Bible stunt, and the school de-funding threats, it is absolutely appropriate. We all know these 'bumps' we joke about refer to his disapproval rating.

[woodley park]

ARG economic survey (monthly), July 17-20, 1100 adults including 994 RV

Adults:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)


RV:

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Its getting pretty close to freezing. I’ve seen it snow at 36 before.

ARG (always a bad pollster for Trump) has gotten close to freezing, but not quite there; their lowest so far has been 33/62 in August 2017.

We are getting closer, but I still don't think we're at rock bottom.

[woodley park]

Not good, but just wait until the public processes the 'somber bump'.

[woodley park]

61% disapproval — that is pretty stark. With the president pressuring states to re-open schools and threatening his own citizens with a militarized police force, I think things can get worse for him.

[woodley park]

With the addition of a new Morning Consult poll with Trump's approval at 36/61, the 538 all-polls average has now dipped below 40% approval for the first time since January 2019.

Looks like it just nudged back up to 40%. However, the trend line is not positive for Trump.

[woodley park]

Trump is gonna lose by 14 points, being down in NC, FL and AZ is the tip of the iceberg.  AK, TX, SC, MT, GA and KS are gonna get competetive and Trump may lose by 14 pts.

Is that your position for the rest of this week, or just for the rest of this afternoon?

PPP state polls, July 23-24

NC: Biden 49, Trump 46 (884 RV)
Approve 47, Disapprove 50


MT: Trump 50, Biden 45 (917 RV)
Approve 49, Disapprove 45


IA: Trump 48, Biden 47 (1118 RV)
Approve 47, Disapprove 49


GA: Biden 46, Trump 45 (722 RV)
Approve 44, Disapprove 49


CO: Biden 54, Trump 41 (891 RV)
Approve 39, Disapprove 57


AK: Trump 50, Biden 44 (885 RV)
Approve 48, Disapprove 46


ME: Biden 53, Trump 42 (962 RV)
Approve 41, Disapprove 55

So looks like Biden has a good grip on Colorado and Maine, which we expected, and is competitive in Georgia and North Carolina, which we expected. The race is pretty much where it was a couple of months ago.

[woodley park]

Mostly noise. Trump did manage to pretend to take COVID seriously for a few days, but his return to pseudo-science, the death of Herman Cain, the Q2 economic figures, the call to postpone the election, and his spineless call with Putin will likely pull him back down again.

[woodley park]

There is a potential for a rally around the flag for Trump, but today's job report makes it more difficult for his type of conservative voters and indies to come around to him. He flatlined by the time the end of the week, when job reports are released, Trump

Rally around the flag because of what? That we now have over 150,000 dead people because our president is an incompetent failure?

[woodley park]

Reading this forum, you would think Donald Trump's approval ratings were at a steady 21%. I remember when Bush's got down that low in 2008. Now that was a bad approval rating.

So because Bush's were worse, mostly because he was unable to form his own devoted base of Republicans, that somehow means that Trump's approval ratings are good?

Because the country was in worse shape in 2008 than today.

Wrong.  2020 is much worse than 2008, in a variety of ways.

Oh please. I got three nieces and nephews going back to school, a mom with a new job and promotion last month, and a sister that just bought a house.

Compare that to the war, the housing crisis and the recession, this is nothing.

Sadly, you are wrong. The Iraq War devastated Iraq and killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, but it didn't really impact the average American beyond darkening their nightly newscasts. Meanwhile, right now millions of people are teetering on the edge of disaster. If there isn't action to help them soon, we will start seeing waves of evictions, bankruptcies, and higher unemployment. Meanwhile, there is no end in sight to the pandemic here, which has upended every day life for the entire country. 2008 was a financial crisis with a war in the background. 2020 is a public heath crisis and financial crisis double whammy.

[woodley park]

Trump continues to flail desperately, and has lost almost every news cycle for the last several weeks. Still unclear to me how he turns things around.

[woodley park]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Aug. 10-11, 1215 adults including 1034 RV


Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+2)

Biden 44 (+1), Trump 37 (nc)

When undecided/3rd-party pushed: Biden 56 (+2), Trump 43 (-2)


RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 57 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 38 (nc)

Pushed: Biden 58 (+2), Trump 42 (-2)

Pretty awful for Trump, across the board. Wow, its almost like it matters that there's over 5 million COVID cases and nearly 170,000 deaths, all amidst a racial reckoning and high unemployment. Who would have thought that something like that would make a difference for a racist incumbent?

[woodley park]

NPR/Marist, Aug. 3-11, 1261 adults including 1118 RV

Adults (change from late July):

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-4)


RV (change from late June):

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-3)

Biden 53 (+1), Trump 42 (-2)

GCB: D 49, R 43

Am I correct that 538 consider Marist to be an A+ pollster? Does that include when they work with NPR?

[woodley park]

Seems obvious Trump is improving. You would think with COVID his approvals should be lower than this, much lower but it’s a very polarizing country.

May reflect some folks coming home to Trump as we get into the final leg of the race, and initial approval of his executive order theater. But I suspect the positive publicity around the DNC and Harris choice to give Biden a boost. Also, the grim milestone of surpassing 200,000 deaths is likely to happen after the RNC..

[woodley park]

It's absolutely beyond my comprehension how around 43% of the electorate can still approve of this moron, after he completely ignored the biggest health crisis in 100+ years, with an economy in shatters and the daily madness and the corruption coming out of this WH. He's most likely going to lose in November anyway, but it's completely ridiculous that many people still approve him. His approvals should be at least in W 2008 territory. At least.

I hear you. It is maddeningly frustrating. But it shows you that partisanship is a sickness in its own way. Thats why I feel the need to be a broken record on here about Trump's calamitous "response" to COVID-19. His horrendous "performance" should mean a loss by default. There's going to be 200,000 dead Americans by mid-September, and the blame for that can be laid right at Trump's feet. There's no end in sight to either this virus or the immense death and economic disruption it has caused here -- and frankly, almost ONLY here. His candidacy should be basically beyond saving. To say otherwise, to tsk-tsk and say there's still almost three months left, a lot could change, hey look at this month's job figures, etc., just feels like conventional wisdom BS to me, like missing the forest fire for the trees. But sadly, partisanship in this country means he's unlikely to fall much further in popularity, so he'll likely always have a shot at winning in the EC at the very least.

[woodley park]

39% is a nice low number, but it would be great for it to go lower.

Has an American incumbent ever won re-election with a 39% approval rating?

[woodley park]

How can you be simultaneously confident that it is only a 278 (sometimes 279) race, and also that Trump will lose?

olawakandi oscillates between a Biden blowout, a narrow Biden win, and a narrow Trump win, approximately every 14 minutes.

[woodley park]

RCP Trump approval hits 44%, first time since late May

Not a meaningful metric, considering the biased approach they take towards determining which polls they throw into their aggregator, and which ones they don't.

[woodley park]

Don't look now, but the 538 average now has Trump approval higher than it was exactly one year ago (43.3% vs 41.3%)

I mean... it’s still terrible.

[woodley park]

Don't look now, but the 538 average now has Trump approval higher than it was exactly one year ago (43.3% vs 41.3%)

I mean... it’s still terrible.

I feel like this is a great time remind everyone that after the 2016 Republican National Convention, Trump actually took a brief, narrow lead in the national horserace polling. The fact that he hasn't been able to duplicate that this year is very ominous size for his chances.

Why people compare those type of numbers between elections? It doesn’t make any sense, as you’ve stripped both from their contexts. And their contexts don’t even compare.

Each election stands on its own as far as polling etc goes. You’re making way too many suppositions.

I think it is more than a fair statement to say that it is ominous for Trump that he has never led Biden in this election and that even during 2016, when he was also unpopular, he still managed to pull ahead at times.

[woodley park]

The fact is that regardless of what the job figures say, life in this country has been completely upended with no end in sight. Kids aren’t going back to school in most places, sports seasons have been canceled or truncated, many social gathering spots, like restaurants, are not able to operate at normal capacity, and many folks will spend this holiday season entirely alone. This is completely abnormal, and the United States stands alone, compared to Western Europe and Northeast Asia, in terms of that. Not to mention, the number of people who have died from this pandemic continues to go up, even if at a slower clip. I’ve read that with cold weather and flu season incoming, we are likely to see new cases and deaths rise again come October.

America in 2016 was imperfect, but at the very least you could go out and get food safely, see your elderly parents without worrying that your very breath could kill them, you could have or go to weddings, unwind with a sports game, or send your child to school and not worry about their health and yours. You can’t do any of that now. And nobody knows when that is going to change.

That’s a long way of saying, we’re in a pretty bad place, and simply harping on the jobs report is missing the forest fire for the trees. Trump didn’t start the forest fire, but his conduct has basically come down to saying that it will eventually burn itself out, miraculously, and then refusing to encourage people to move out of the path of the fire, besmirching fireproof clothing and housing materials, holding a rally in the midst of a burning village, then suggesting that maybe if we all spit on it, it will extinguish. No, its outbreak was not his fault, but it seems like he has done everything in his power to make it worse.

[woodley park]

Pretty bad. It seems like Trump gets repeatedly sucked back towards the upper 30s.

[woodley park]

After yesterday, Rs throughout history have ignored intellegence that puts Americans in harms way that could have been prevented or steps could have been prevented to stop the act: Hoover knew that Lee and Robert were cousins of Robert E Lee and Lee Oswald wanted Pernament normal relations with Cuba, and vowed to kill Kennedy if his Russian wife, didn't get a visa to Cuba; consequently, Jack Ruby took it upon himself to kill Lee Oswald, due to Hoover's negligence, Reagan traded arms for Hostages to Iran, Bush W went on vacation and was warned about leaving cockpit doors open before 911, when he was briefed that Bin Laden was determined to strike within US, Bush W was briefed that levies would be topped before Katrina, and now Trump knew that Covid was deadly and mislead Americans.

This is why a 2008 blowout is all but assured, and an Electoral collapse is all but assured by Trump, whom is gaffe prone like Palin.

Dems understand this, and we have won IA, OH, FL in the past, conservatives think that 2016 is gonna live in eternity and we won't win another IA and OH ever in history

Don't get me wrong, I like your conclusion but you said just like two days ago that this was a 270 + 8 election!