Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[swf541]

Why doesn't the RCP average include any polls from change research? They are no less legit than gravis or traflgar.

Are they the idiots who did a poll in one afternoon?

[swf541]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

[swf541]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

Yes, but half of those models used 2016 vote weights. A decent number of respondents aren't going to honestly answer that they voted for a president with a 36% approval rating, so using self-reported presidential vote as a way to weigh the results is inherently going to marginalize regretful Trump voters that are more likely to vote for Jones.

There's a lot of uncertainty involved with polling a race like this, but the complete and utter pessimism that a lot of people here are infected with is unwarranted.

[swf541]

Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304

Blatant poll herding...even crazier than the +3 Gillespie polls last month

Isnt it teasing a Jones comeback?

[swf541]

The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

[swf541]

The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

Who?  Also link?

Got it from daily kos elections
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/12/11/1723039/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-12-11

Near the bottom of comments

[swf541]

The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

If they manage that it'll be a ing miracle.

I completely agree, just thought it should be posted

[swf541]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

We're reaching peak atlas once again

[swf541]

Strong turnout early on in Midtown Huntsville:

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Ugh, that's way too high. Maybe not for that precinct, but if it looks that way everywhere...#RIPJones.

I hope your being sarcastic...

About what? If turnout statewide is at presidential levels, Jones has no pathway to victory.

About freaking out over turnout reports.

We're reaching peak atlas once again

It happens every damn time.

Yep, it sure does

[swf541]

since were posting turnout reports

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https://twitter.com/Eugene_Scott/status/940620368712294401

[swf541]

Don't read much into these anecdotal turnout bits, reminds me of how people were declaring Hillary the winner based off of high morning turnout in cities

Why go back so far? People were saying Northam landslide last month two hours after the polls opened based on turnout reports, then SW VA started to catch up and it started raining in NoVA and Northam was finished.

Yep, those were great times /s

[swf541]

Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

CITATION NEEDED

Also horrific spelling

[swf541]

Calling it now, stick a fork in him, Jones is finished. I've been seeing reports all day on other sites saying there's massive turnout in rural white bigot neighborhoods. Evan if every black person shows up we're still gonna get swamped by a sunami of bigots.

Is this a sock of LimoLiberal?

Seems likely, just some how has worse spelling....

[swf541]

There is reportedly very nice weather in 'Bama so no "Rain in NoVa" panic posts necessary.

I feel like we should make shirts saying: "I survived the Rain in NoVa"

Didnt stop LimoLiberal from trying.

[swf541]

CNN is reporting that the Moore campaign is seeing high turnout from "white, rural" voters....

The moore campaign has said a lot of things today.....

[swf541]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

Expected higher

[swf541]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

How many DNK OR BELIEVE

[swf541]

Just in- 82% of Evangelicals believe accusations against Moore are false.

MSNBC says 72%.

How many DNK OR BELIEVE

... What?

Do Not Know/Do Not Believe Allegations Are False, presumably

This

[swf541]

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I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

And you just earned a spot on the old ignore list.....

[swf541]

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I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

You're a clown

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I suppose you take your Lattes with extra froth...

And you just earned a spot on the old ignore list.....

That'll just prove his point of trying to trigger us.

Id prefer not to get banned bashing him and if he was universally ignored no would give a care about what he said also defeating his point.....

[swf541]

Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans

[swf541]

Well, crap. That's disappointing. I swear there was a Baldwin County newspaper article earlier in this thread reporting relatively low turnout, but this seems Fairly reliable.

According to the probate judge of that county the higher turnout is due to younger voters and african americans

Yeah. Baldwin was high, but probate judge thought Jones might get up to 35% of it due to demographics.

45 not 35 was what the judge said if i remember right