Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

[Panhandle Progressive]

Meet the Press - First Read

DATA DOWNLOAD:  And the number of the day is … 74 percent.

Seventy-four percent.

That’s the share of South Democratic primary voters in 2016 who said they wanted to a candidate to continue Barack Obama’s policies, according to the exit poll from that contest four years ago.

Hillary Clinton beat Bernie Sanders by more than 60 points among these voters, 81 percent to 19 percent.

By contrast, 16 percent said they wanted a candidate who held more liberal policies than Obama’s, and Sanders won those voters, 55 percent to 45 percent – one of the few demographic groups Sanders carried in that 2016 contest.

[Panhandle Progressive]

After the DNC steals the nomination from Bernie and hands it to Biden, I can’t wait for Biden to tell all the Bernie protestors to vote for someone else.

It can only be 'stolen' if a candidate doesn't win the nomination outright. Bernie and all candidates agreed to these rules. They also agreed to Superdelegates having their say at a contested convention. It's not surprising that Supers believe Bernie would be the next McGovern, Mondale or Dukakis rather than the next B. Clinton or Obama in a general election. This is also exactly why Supers exist even in the first place. Btw, your first post ever on the forum and you begin here with "after the DNC steals", pretty shameful.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Bernie is favored for the nomination

Not if he doesn't win outright. It's a brand new ballgame if he can't get himself across the 1,991 line.

[Panhandle Progressive]

After the DNC steals the nomination from Bernie and hands it to Biden, I can’t wait for Biden to tell all the Bernie protestors to vote for someone else.

It can only be 'stolen' if a candidate doesn't win the nomination outright. Bernie and all candidates agreed to these rules. They also agreed to Superdelegates having their say at a contested convention. It's not surprising that Supers believe Bernie would be the next McGovern, Mondale or Dukakis rather than the next B. Clinton or Obama in a general election. This is also exactly why Supers exist even in the first place. Btw, your first post ever on the forum and you begin here with "after the DNC steals", pretty shameful.

Lmao have fun trying to convince other Bernie supporters that it wasn’t stolen. Bernie tried to get rid of SDs, but the DNC wanted to keep them, so he was FORCED to accept them only voting on the 2nd ballot. Stop spreading these vile, disgusting, and disingenuous lies about Bernie.

“The best way to win the election is by spitting in the face of 40% of our voters!” Genius.

How about this for proof?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/democratic-superdelegates.html

"overwhelming opposition to handing Mr. Sanders the nomination if he fell short of a majority of delegates."

[Panhandle Progressive]

So hopefully he can go back in the lead in Texas and keep California closer than current polls show it may end up. Would actually be great to see some endorsements rolling in. If Kamala endorses him ahead of California, it would be a big deal.

60% chance of a contested convention.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

This is exactly what I've believed for a while now. Super Tuesday (and the rest of March) appears likely to show THE SOUTH WILL PREVENT ANYONE from clinching the nomination now.

[Panhandle Progressive]

There wont be any contested Convention, Biden and Bernie are friends and for the greater good, Biden will cede his delegates to Bernie, as I expect, if he doesnt get the majority. We dont need a divided conversation

Sorry, bud, but a contested convention WILL BE HAPPENING IN 2020. And I want you to remember this. Let's just say for the sake of conversation that Bernie has a slight lead over Biden (45% of delegates to 42%) going into a contested convention, IT'S FAR, FAR, FAR more likely the Superdelegates award the nomination to BIDEN. If you EXPECT Bernie will come out with it in this situation, you simply don't understand the entire point of a Superdelegate.

[Panhandle Progressive]

There wont be any contested Convention, Biden and Bernie are friends and for the greater good, Biden will cede his delegates to Bernie, as I expect, if he doesnt get the majority. We dont need a divided conversation

Sorry, bud, but a contested convention WILL BE HAPPENING IN 2020. And I want you to remember this. Let's just say for the sake of conversation that Bernie has a slight lead over Biden (45% of delegates to 42%) going into a contested convention, IT'S FAR, FAR, FAR more likely the Superdelegates award the nomination to BIDEN. If you EXPECT Bernie will come out with it in this situation, you simply don't understand the entire point of a Superdelegate.

see how many delegates Bernie has after winning Cali by 55 and winning TX, before we talk about this.

I'm most curious about the delegate margins in California (on ST) once everything is tallied. While I believe Sanders will do fantastic in the Austin area and maybe even other metros, I don't believe he will win statewide. After his amazing win in SC, Biden should be able to win a state Hillary beat Bernie by a 2-1 margin in 2016. Southern and deep south states are generally pretty moderate voters. That said, if Bernie can win latinos in Texas as he did in Nevada, the top two may end up essentially tying Texas. These two states (CA/TX) are also full of Hispanic centered counties, 92 in all, that have high numbers of latino voters (the population in each is at least 28 percent hispanic and the figures run up to 99 percent). It's gonna be interesting to see, regardless of the result.

[Panhandle Progressive]

With Buttigieg now out, 538 believes there is about a 2 in 3 chance of a contested convention.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[Panhandle Progressive]

Biden have barely had any ads on TV, while the Bernie JUGGERNAUT has been airing ads all month long, Biden is gonna lose CA and TX by a landslide

That's why Buttigieg had to drop out, no money for ads. Bernie has 42.5 million

All of the publicity out of SC is worth more than all the advertising money the Bernie campaign has invested in ST states. Why? Democrats saw Biden's gigantic victory margin there and decided at that moment to unite the middle wing of the party behind him. Furthermore, Pete didn't drop mostly due to money but rather to coalesce this wing behind Biden. Bernie is in big trouble.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Ok I get Biden polls the best out of the group normally but is anyone not concerned his campaign not only has been massively lackluster but that he shows all the warning signs Hillary had? He doesn’t inspire young people, he did awful in the first two rural states when he was supposed to be the WWC whisper, and he gaffes all the time. Seriously I don’t know how anyone can say with a straight face that Bernie is a guaranteed loss yet feel comfortable with Joe

This was and has been obvious from day one. Coddling to moderates just does this by default.

Unlikable moderates, yes. Pay attention tomorrow night. You will see Joe is likable.

[Panhandle Progressive]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/01/politics/joe-biden-super-tuesday/index.html

Enough said! In most States Biden has No Organization. If Sanders Ground Game is good Bernie will have a significant Delegate lead.

All of the publicity out of SC is worth more than all the advertising money the Bernie campaign has invested in ST states. Why? Democrats saw Biden's gigantic victory margin there and decided at that moment to unite the middle wing of the party behind him. Furthermore, Pete dropped out and his voters will almost certainly coalesce behind Biden. Bernie is in big trouble.

[Panhandle Progressive]

For the first time, the 538 delegate tracker shows Biden as favored to win more delegates by the end. Also for the first time, he's ahead of Bernie here and has a 20% chance of winning the nomination outright. Sanders is down to 15% on that.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[Panhandle Progressive]

For the first time (today), the 538 delegate tracker shows Biden as favored to win more delegates by the end. Biden has a 30% chance of winning the nomination outright. Sanders is down to 8%. Biden is now predicted to finish about 400 delegates ahead of Bernie by the end, and have a plurality.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[Panhandle Progressive]

Beto is endorsing Biden.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/02/beto-orourke-to-endorse-biden-119100?fbclid=IwAR1F_Owa6p7xP9HDwfEDOdnepv_B_c4qU1y51_tYb8oJ-eJX_9PCeyZo6_Q

eww....
have to reconsider my support now.

When Biden introduced Beto last night he specifically said to Beto, "You’re going to take care of the gun problem with me. You’re going to be the one who leads this effort. I’m counting on you."

Git-R-Done

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/biden-says-beto-orourke-will-take-care-of-the-gun-problem-with-me/

[Panhandle Progressive]

538's final forecast for ST has Biden winning 484 delegates today, and Bernie winning 463 today. What a turn of events. Biden could take the overall delegate lead TODAY! TODAY!

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-final-forecast-for-super-tuesday-shows-bidens-surge-and-lots-of-uncertainty/

[Panhandle Progressive]

Potential scenario outcomes once all the ST ballots have been tallied:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1234913885381169152

[Panhandle Progressive]

Does anyone have the video of that rally where Biden received endorsements from Klobuchar and Buttigieg?

Furthermore, does anyone have the video of his Super Tuesday speech?

I hear from this thread that both of them were good. I'd like to watch them.

Pete endorsing Biden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYCZVj_WLSs

Amy, Beto endorsing Biden (Entirety) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVFZ4_g_6GU

Biden ST speech (including misguided protesters) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnE9kKeOyTg

[Panhandle Progressive]

Chris Cillizza's winners and losers from Super Tuesday (Excellent for Biden)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/politics/super-tuesday-winners-losers/index.html

[Panhandle Progressive]

Gretchen Whitmer, Val Demings, and Tammy Duckworth have all endorsed Joe today.

So did the DFP, the newspaper with the largest circulation in Michigan.

https://twitter.com/freep/status/1235554923175120898