Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

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Biden has canceled ad spending in Nevada:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1218224879394328577

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Biden has canceled ad spending in Nevada:

Well, that is interesting... The question is why?

a) They are out of money/need money for IA/NH/SC more
b) They think they have it locked up
c) They think they can't win it

Which of those is the case?

I guess that he's trying to go all-in on IA/NH so that a strong finish would give him enough momentum for an outright win in NV and a landslide in SC going into Super Tuesday. It's still a puzzling decision, though, as NV is a state that he could quickly lose ground to Sanders if he's not careful (unlike say SC where he pulled out earlier this month which is already a foregone conclusion).

That might be too charitable for an explanation, though, as it's also possible that his campaign's finances are not in the best shape compared to the other candidates.

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I'd still say Biden is the favorite in SC regardless of what happens in NV, and a victory there would probably let him stay in on Super Tuesday.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1232738409262800896
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232746351819137024

Good news for Bernie is that Biden (and everyone else but Bloomy) is out of their money.

South Carolina could be a game changer in the financial sense if not politically.

Biden wins going away and the media narrative is he has a real shot: money flows in
Biden wins by small margin and media narrative is his candidacy has nowhere to go: broke as a joke

It’s still not a great sign that Biden has spent no money on Super Tuesday states. Ensuring a big win in South Carolina is important for his campaign (though admittedly one of his best states should have never been competitive in the first place). However, he lacks the organizational strength of his opponents who have been heavily campaigning in ST states for the past few weeks - namely Sanders and Bloomberg. Despite  the latter’s relative weakened position after the last two debates, the amount of money Bloomberg has thrown in should not be underestimated and polling has shown that he still maintains reasonably high support which should worry Biden.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1232738409262800896
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1232746351819137024

Good news for Bernie is that Biden (and everyone else but Bloomy) is out of their money.

South Carolina could be a game changer in the financial sense if not politically.

Biden wins going away and the media narrative is he has a real shot: money flows in
Biden wins by small margin and media narrative is his candidacy has nowhere to go: broke as a joke

It’s still not a great sign that Biden has spent no money on Super Tuesday states. Ensuring a big win in South Carolina is important for his campaign (though admittedly one of his best states should have never been competitive in the first place). However, he lacks the organizational strength of his opponents who have been heavily campaigning in ST states for the past few weeks - namely Sanders and Bloomberg. Despite  the latter’s relative weakened position after the last two debates, the amount of money Bloomberg has thrown in should not be underestimated and polling has shown that he still maintains reasonably high support which should worry Biden.

He's counting on three days of free media. Which TBH, isn't a bad expectation. There's also the fact that Biden is/was bankrupt, if he failed to win SC he would be dropping out on Tuesday night. An investment in SC is something Biden hopes will pay off as donors and the grassroots give him greater attention again.

I know, but at this point it likely won’t be enough to fix his campaign’s real disadvantages.

[Gracile]

Biden making some last-minute ad spending in California:

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1234480192585977857

We'll see on Tuesday if this will be enough to make an impact.