IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[Schiff for Senate]

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop Rob Sand or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

In all seriousness, Likely/Safe R, but Kim Reynolds (if she’s even interested in a run) vs. Pat Grassley could make for an interesting primary if Chuck Grassley retires.

I’m on team Hinson here. Pat is not entitled to his grandpa’s seat.

You're stupid! Let Ashley Hinson win a few Congressional Races first like for example Mike Fitzpatrick before you throw her into a Statewide Race.

Jacky Rosen, Steve Daines, and Tom Cotton agree.

Well, he does have a point. While it's possible to win higher office after one term as a representative, it isn't as good a strategy as waiting for a few times, because if you do run you could be attacked as a politician just climbing the ladder of power and not really being humble or caring about their constituents. Yes, Cotton, Daines and Rosen won a senate seat after just one term, but in truth, freshmen representatives winning higher office tend to be rare exceptions to the rule aforementioned. Of course, this rule would be a problem for Iowa's Republican representatives since all 3 were elected in 2020 itself and are in their first term. Pat Grassley could be attacked as being nothing more than Pat Grassley's grandson and feeling entitled to the seat, as you said. So I think the Iowa GOP should run a statewide officer who's been in office for a while and is reasonably popular - Mike Naig, the Secretary of Agriculture, might be a decent candidate.

[Schiff for Senate]

This is wave insurance there hasn't been any polls on this this far

In case you haven't remarked, no Democrat has won a statewide race in IA since 2012 (when Obama was the last Democrat to win Iowa in a presidential election).

Tom Miller's and his 2018 election map say's high.

Tom Miller, Rob Sand etc. are also likely going to lose in 2022, and probably only won in 2018 because it was a D wave.

Yes Tom Miller, Iowa Attorney General since the 1970s who didn't even face a Republican opponent only won because of a dem wave.

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year. The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

K

He won by 12 points in 2014. Maybe my statements were exaggerations but Miller and Fitzgerald will definitely be favourites in their races in 2022 if they run (if either retires, though, the open seat will be likely-to-safe Republican).

[Schiff for Senate]

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

K

He won by 12 points in 2014. Maybe my statements were exaggerations but Miller and Fitzgerald will definitely be favourites in their races in 2022 if they run (if either retires, though, the open seat will be likely-to-safe Republican).

There have been numerous examples in just the past decade alone (i.e. Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, John Perdue, Ted Strickland, etc.) of incumbents who've lost reelection after winning their previous races by landslides (or near-landslides). Given Iowa's strong Republican trend, the pro-Republican nature of next year's midterm environment, and increasing polarization, I wouldn't be surprised if Fitzgerald and Miller meet a similar fate. They could very well still win next year, but if they do, it will be by sharply reduced margins compared to 2018.

Fair enough. But I still think they're favourites. What really ticked me off was the suggestion that they both only won in 2018 because it was a wave year, which discounts the fact that both are very long-term incumbents and have won comfortably in red years like 2010 and 2014 too. I'd call both races likely Democratic, maybe lean Democratic. Still, in all fairness, the state has reddened in the Trump years and I don't think they'll win by double digits anymore.