2013 Elections in Canada

[mileslunn]

In terms of election this year, Quebec is possible but not likely, so here are my thoughts.

Nova Scotia - Likely a Liberal win, the question is will it be a majority or a minority.  The NDP if lucky still might pull off a minority as they aren't trailing by any more than they were in 2011 in Manitoba as this point or McGuinty in Ontario so if they run a solid campaign and the Liberals mess up, they could pull it off.  PCs don't really stand much of a chance.  There best hope is the Liberals get in and screw up and then they are able to present themselves as the alternative to both.

British Columbia - Unless Adrian Dix does something incredibly stupid, I expect an NDP majority with around 60 seats.  It won't be a massacre like 2001 thanks to the decline of the BC Conservatives and the fact you do still have a sizeable number who will never vote NDP under any circumstance.  I do though think Christy Clark will lose her own riding as Vancouver-Point Grey has always been a marginal BC Liberal riding, never a really safe one, not like Vancouver-Quilchena which I expect them to hold.

Ontario - Anything is possible, but the Liberals face a real uphill battle to win.  If an election comes this spring Wynne may be able to ride on the honeymoon most new leaders get, but unless there is one called soon, not likely.  An NDP win seems possible but not likely as their vote is extremely concentrated so even if they win the popular vote it won't necessarily mean more seats as they tend to pile up big margins in Northern Ontario, union towns like Windsor and Hamilton and downtown Toronto.  The PCs will most likely win but only with a minority as a lot of Hudak's proposals are a bit too right wing for most.  If the party was a little more centrist, I think they would have little trouble getting a majority.  Its not so much anyone particular policy, but rather the overall tone.  In some ways too bad as I like policies like privatizing the LCBO, allowing beer and wine corner store sales, ending the Beer Store monopoly, right to work laws, privatizing OPG and Hydro One, ending the WSIB monopoly on worker's insurance.  On the other hand I don't support further tax cuts, the welfare reforms seem to go a bit too far, and although I support scrapping all day kindergarten, I don't support cutting 10,000 educational positions.  I also don't support privatizing the OLG as unlike the LCBO there is really no way to make up the lost revenue although I am all for contracting out operations of OLG Casinos as is already the case for the most part.  Also I am opposed to further downloading to the municipalities which have enough financial problems as it is.

[mileslunn]

Not saying an NDP win isn't possible, I am just saying not likely.  As for Tory vote being mostly concentrated in Rural Ontario, that is true in seats won, but you look at the riding by riding breakdown close to 2/3 of ridings their support was within 10% of their provincial average, whereas in the NDP their results in the ridings they win tends to be wayyy above the provincial average while there is usually more ridings in the province where they are below the provincial average than above.  As for the 905 belt, the NDP could pick up more but I figure it is unlikely you will get too many who voted Conservative federally going NDP provincially, so any riding the Conservatives got above 45% in the last federal election is probably off limits, which is a good chunk of the 905 belt.  As for the Tories winning in the 905 belt, I think the best is to look at past federal results as the 2007 results closely matched the 2004 results federally and the 2011 results provincially closely matched the 2006 results federally, so if you saw a repeat of the 2008 results federally play out provincially it would result in a Tory minority.  I doubt they will get the 73 seats their federal counterparts got, but 51 seats like they got 2008 is certainly possible and even as little as 45 seats would probably be enough for a weak minority.  Off course the NDP and Liberals could form a coalition if the Tories get 53 seats or less but this has its risks too.

[mileslunn]

Miles, you support scrapping all day Kindergarten? You must not have kids.

No I don't, but I do remember when I was five years old and I can tell you as a five year old being away from my parents for half a day was bad enough.  I should note that when my parents went to school in the 50s, there was no Kindergarten, everybody started in Grade 1.  In addition I believe the Drummond Report called for cancelling it so anything in there Tim Hudak is on fairly solid grounds.  If he tries to run on things not in the Drummond Report, that is a different story off course.  I am not sure about other provinces, but to the best of my knowledge I don't believe any of them have all day kindergarten.   I know Quebec has cheap daycare but they unlike Ontario get huge transfers in equalization so they can afford some programs Ontario cannot. 

[mileslunn]

Incidentally, if you want proof that I'm not out to lunch in countering Miles Lunn's judgment of ONDP potential (or lack thereof), let's go back to here, re the Kitchener-Waterloo byelection.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=148414.msg3354800#msg3354800

And we all know what happened.

Not saying it isn't possible, just looking though at the data.  While I agree there are probably more Liberals who would swing over to the NDP than PCs, the PCs have a much stronger base so they don't need to pick up nearly as many.  Also lets remember by-elections traditionally have low turnouts so one should be careful in reading too much into them.  In addition, the Tories federally got 44% in Ontario while Mike Harris got 45% in 1999 so I doubt very many Harris voters or federal Tories will cross over and vote NDP provincially.  They might vote Liberal, but not likely NDP.  True many who weren't old enough to vote in 1999 will probably go NDP and likewise there is the newer immigrants who are wild card, but when you consider those demographics tend to have lower turnouts, I would suspect around 80% of voters in the upcoming election would be ones who also voted in 1999.  When it comes to inter-provincial migration, Ontario hasn't gained a lot of people like the Western provinces have (although I happen to be one who was old enough in 1999 but lived in BC then), but it hasn't lost a lot like the Atlantic provinces have either.  Most of its growth has been from immigration.  I am trying to argue the NDP cannot win, I am just saying if you use statistical odds like Nate Silver did on 538, the odds are not in their favour.  That being said they are better than what they were six months prior to the 1990 election and likewise better than the probability of the NDP forming the official opposition in March 2011. 

[mileslunn]

Weren't the gas plants both being built by private companies as opposed to OPG thus meaning the government would have to pay compensation for loss profit.  Dumb move to approve them without thinking of the results and even dumber to cancel them.  Off course if these were safe Tory ridings or NDP ridings they would have left them alone.  That being said McGuinty did get hurt for his wind power in Rural Ontario as many residents of Rural Ontario are furious about the wind farms.  Otherwise much like their federal counterparts they spend too much time thinking about what appeals to Toronto and not the other regions where Liberal support is much softer.  I suspect this played a role in the PCs winning traditional Liberal ridings like Chatham-Kent-Essex.

[mileslunn]

I certainly don't think 45% is the natural Tory support, I simply believe that those who voted for Harris or Harper are unlikely to go NDP in large numbers due to ideological differences.  The NDP could win but as the forum poll shows when done by seats even when ahead they are still not ahead in seats which is what matters.  Yes Ontario doesn't have as sharp a divide as the US does, but if you go from right to left which is PC to Liberal to NDP, voters can easily move one slot over, but few will slide two slots over.  Otherwise there aren't a whole wack of PC-NDP switchers.  Looking at the scene in Ontario, I think Andrea Howarth is well liked thus her high poll numbers and Ontarioans much like Canadians often like many of the left leaning ideas the NDP espouses, at the same time the high deficit and the fact the NDP is unlikely to make the necessary cuts is probably their greatest risk.  As for the PCs, its funny that when Hudak wasn't releasing those right wing white papers, he was close to the 40% mark, so I would argue the Tories are only doing as badly as they are as the ideological right only represent about 30% of the population.  If you want to succeed you cannot turn them off like Joe Clark or John Tory did but you cannot be beholden to them.  You have to much like Harper has done throw them some bones on trivial issues while on the big issues steer clear of them.  I also think too another factor which we will see more in polls as we get closer is turnout as generally it seems parties on the right are underpolled while parties on the left are overpolled.  I don't think the polls are wrong, I think it has more to do with the fact the demographics who the right is strongest amongst generally have the highest voter turnout while the ones the left is highest amongst tend to have weaker turnouts.  Part of the reason Obama was re-elected is he was successfully able to bring out many of the left wing voters in similar numbers as the right.  The problem is no party in Canada other than perhaps the federal Conservatives has as strong a GOTV as the Democrats do never mind the US is less white than Canada and the median age is also slightly younger too.  In many ways the demographics in Canada are more like most European countries which the left has had far less success in recent elections.