4th quarter fundraising #s

[Likely Voter]

Clinton will have a good quarter and Sanders will have a great quarter, probably outpacing Clinton.

Harder to say who will win the quarter on the GOP side. Last quarter the ranking was Carson, Bush, Cruz, Fiorina, Rubio. I think Cruz may be tops this time around. Rubio is the biggest question for me. Maybe he has been quietly amassing a fortune. It would explain his absences from teh Senate and from the campaign trail.   

As for Carson. He may have raised $20M again but my bet is he will be close to broke when it comes to cash on hand. He has high burn rate and his fundraising has probably dried up in the last half of the quarter.

[Likely Voter]

CNN analysis says Clinton raised $21M through fundraisers she personally attended in Q3 and so she will have at least a Q4 total of $25M+ to end up exceeding the goal of $100M for the year.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/30/politics/hillary-clinton-fundraising-bernie-sanders/index.html

[Likely Voter]

As a reminder, here are the 3rd quarter summaries.

DEM   Raised   Spent   Cash
Clinton   29.9   25.8   33.0
Sanders   26.2   11.3   27.1
O'Malley   1.3   1.8   0.8
Lessig   1.0   0.4   0.6
Webb   0.7   0.4   0.3
Chafee   0.0   0.1   0.3


GOP   Raised   Spent   Cash
Carson   20.8   14.2   11.3
Bush   13.4   11.5   10.3
Cruz   12.2   7.0   13.8
Walker   7.4   6.4   1.0
Fiorina   6.8   2.2   5.5
Rubio   5.7   4.6   11.0
Kasich   4.4   1.7   2.6
Christie   4.2   2.8   1.4
Trump   3.9   4.2   0.5
Paul   2.5   4.5   2.1
Huckabee   1.2   1.4   0.8
Graham   1.1   2.0   1.6
Jindal   0.6   0.8   0.3
Santorum   0.4   0.4   0.2
Perry   0.3   1.1   0.0
Pataki   0.1   0.3   0.0
Gilmore   0.1   0.1   0.0


red  spent > raised

[Likely Voter]

I'm going to bet the order will go (not counting dropouts)...

Sanders
Clinton
Carson
Cruz
Rubio
Bush
Trump
Christie
Kasich
Fiorina
Paul
O'Malley
Huckabee
Santorum
Gilmore

[Likely Voter]

If Bush is below Rubio, Bush is probably finished.

It would be a big deal and get a lot of media. But I predict Rubio will do it. He had a lot of good buzz for most of the quarter and I suspect the reason he has been missing so many votes and not doing retail campaigning in the early states is because he has been doing a lot of fundraising, both events and working the phones. Coming in at number one for the four 'establishment' guys will send a big signal that he is "The One"

[Likely Voter]

Carson started the quarter with $11m so if that is true his burn rate is over 100%. And as the money coming in has likely declined along with his polling he could be going broke fast. Probably explains his campaign shakeup.

[Likely Voter]

That is impressive haul for Clinton. 8 years ago she raised $27m in q4 2007, Obama raised $23.5m  Maybe she outpaced Bernie. I suspect if they raised more they would announce today to beat her in the news cycle.

[Likely Voter]

Surprised Sanders campaign hasn't released their number yet, especially if it is more than Clinton's $37M. Beating her campaign number is what will get good press. Beating her DNC number isn't expected and not important for buzz, although would be important if he wants to actually start getting Establishment endorsements.

[Likely Voter]

I agree. The Sanders number is coming in around expectations and is impressive on its own, Clinton was just surprisingly big. Her team played expectations game well. I suspect that a lot of big dem money that was sitting on the sidelines waiting for Biden's decision came her way, and the Benghazi hearing helped her with small donors.

Now the drama moves to who is winning the race for the 'mainstream' pack of Bush, Rubio, Kasich and Christie. And then there will be the curiosity of how much Trump is bringing in (and how much he is putting in himself). And then the schadenfreude over how broke everyone else is.

Also being that it is another half-year, all the Super PACs have to announce their numbers. Remember 6 months ago is when Bush 'shocked and awed' with his $100m...how much of that is really left and how much more did they pick up?  I suspect that Cruz' Super PACs may be the big winner of the second half of the year. Plus is Clinton's Super PAC finally picking up steam?

[Likely Voter]

The cash-on-hand figures @ Dec. 31:

38.0 Mio. $ - Hillary
28.4 Mio. $ - Bernie

So both spent ~$32m for the quarter, which means Bernie has a burn rate close to 100%

[Likely Voter]

It's noteworthy that Bush hasn't announced any numbers yet. They came in 2nd last quarter and actually announced on September 30th.  I think they are waiting to see Rubio's number. 

[Likely Voter]

Let's return to the topic subject please

[Likely Voter]

Well the first news day of the year has passed and no one besides what we can assume are the top 2 for each side (Clinton/Sanders and Carson/Cruz) have released anything. So I guess that means that none of the other campaigns has anything to celebrate money-wise. Seems that if Rubio or Bush had more than either Cruz or Carson, we would have heard about it by now. So will we have to wait until the 15th? Hopefully some dribs and drabs come out before then.

As for the Super PACs, I believe they have until the 30th to disclose. But we may get some leaks before then.

[Likely Voter]

Committees actually don't submit 4th quarter reports but year end reports so yes the have until the end of the month. For 2016 they have to report monthly on the 20th of the next month (January report on Feb 20th). The reports will be at the FEC site: http://docquery.fec.gov/pres/

[Likely Voter]

Tomorrow is the big day. The campaign finance reports will be showing up at this link on the FEC site...

http://docquery.fec.gov/pres/2015/YE/

So far only one has been filed, Scott Walker ended 2015 with over $1m in debt.


Regardless of the results, I doubt they will have much effect on IA, however the GOP numbers could impact NH. One of the issues will be which of the 'establishment' campaigns has the cash to continue the fight against Cruz and Trump beyond NH and into Super Tuesday. Any campaigns that are flat broke are going to get negative press.

[Likely Voter]

What time will they numbers start being released?

They are due today but maybe the FEC isn't updating on a Sunday.

[Likely Voter]

Trump donated to his own campaign $10.8 Mil, but still out-raised a few of his competitors with $2.6 Mil from other people.

Well technically he donated $113k and lent his campaign $10.8m. He can always use future contributions to pay himself back the loan, even if it it years from now. So Trump is still not really self financincing.