4th quarter fundraising #s

[Tender Branson]

Carson: 20-23 million $

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/12/24/1463379/-Ben-Carson-may-or-may-not-be-shaking-up-his-campaign-staff-depending-when-you-ask-him

Sanders: "more than Hillary" (according to the Hillary campaign)

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/bernie-sanders-fundraising-hillary-clinton-217063

[mds32]

Yuck Carson has too much $$$ yet he runs a horrible campaign.

[defe07]

Yuck Carson has too much $$$ yet he runs a horrible campaign.

I was thinking. Does Maryland have a statewide seat up for grabs? Maybe a Republican primary between Keyes and himself could happen!

[Maxwell]

His campaign collapsed, what, two weeks ago? I'm sure his spending is pretty amazing too.

[This account no longer in use.]

Yuck Carson has too much $$$ yet he runs a horrible campaign.

I was thinking. Does Maryland have a statewide seat up for grabs? Maybe a Republican primary between Keyes and himself could happen!

Mikulski is retiring.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Carson's campaign is more like a ponzi scheme than a conventional run office.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders: "more than Hillary" (according to the Hillary campaign)

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/bernie-sanders-fundraising-hillary-clinton-217063

I wouldn't exactly trust a Hillary fundraising e-mail for that information.

[Adam Griffin]

Yuck Carson has too much $$$ yet he runs a horrible campaign.

Is Carson For Prez A Direct Mail Scam?
Where Is Ben Carson's Money Going?

[Adam Griffin]

Sanders: "more than Hillary" (according to the Hillary campaign)

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/bernie-sanders-fundraising-hillary-clinton-217063

I wouldn't exactly trust a Hillary fundraising e-mail for that information.

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[The Other Castro]

Sanders: "more than Hillary" (according to the Hillary campaign)

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/bernie-sanders-fundraising-hillary-clinton-217063

I wouldn't exactly trust a Hillary fundraising e-mail for that information.

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It seems fairly likely that Sanders will out-raise Clinton this quarter, but that's some serious spin from that Clinton donor.

[Eraserhead]

The Clinton camp are wisely preparing people for the news with their own spin here but I don't doubt that Sanders raised more than her - maybe even a lot more.

[Likely Voter]

Clinton will have a good quarter and Sanders will have a great quarter, probably outpacing Clinton.

Harder to say who will win the quarter on the GOP side. Last quarter the ranking was Carson, Bush, Cruz, Fiorina, Rubio. I think Cruz may be tops this time around. Rubio is the biggest question for me. Maybe he has been quietly amassing a fortune. It would explain his absences from teh Senate and from the campaign trail.   

As for Carson. He may have raised $20M again but my bet is he will be close to broke when it comes to cash on hand. He has high burn rate and his fundraising has probably dried up in the last half of the quarter.

[Adam Griffin]

Sanders: "more than Hillary" (according to the Hillary campaign)

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/bernie-sanders-fundraising-hillary-clinton-217063

I wouldn't exactly trust a Hillary fundraising e-mail for that information.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It seems fairly likely that Sanders will out-raise Clinton this quarter, but that's some serious spin from that Clinton donor.

Well, my broader point was that there seems to be unison among multiple Clinton campaign staffers and donors that this is happening. Perhaps it's a clever last-minute ruse to get people to cough up more money (whether they think they're behind or not), but it's a bit far-reaching to assume that it's plotted.

I don't think the overall sentiment expressed by the donor is heavily spun - the downside of being inevitable is that people feel no real urgency to support you financially (just like the downside of Trump being "really rich" is that most people aren't going to line up and start throwing money at him when he brags about being able to self-fund). In contrast, Sanders' strongest advantage is that he isn't fueling a SuperPAC or handling any big money, so a huge network of supporters feel obligated to give whatever they can.

[henster]

Hillary lagging behind in smaller donors must be concerning for her. The large reason Obama kept largely in pace with Romney in 2012 was because of the large number of small donors he had. Yes, she gets his email list but how many of those are going to be willing to donate to her?

[The Other Castro]

I'm just wondering why people are still giving money to Carson. It makes no sense to me.

[Maxwell]

I'm just wondering why people are still giving money to Carson. It makes no sense to me.

Remember the height of his rise was during this quarter.

[Oak Hills]

Hillary lagging behind in smaller donors must be concerning for her. The large reason Obama kept largely in pace with Romney in 2012 was because of the large number of small donors he had. Yes, she gets his email list but how many of those are going to be willing to donate to her?

No, I think Obama got more from small donors because he was more popular, and he also won the election because he was more popular.

Correlation does not equal causation.

[Likely Voter]

CNN analysis says Clinton raised $21M through fundraisers she personally attended in Q3 and so she will have at least a Q4 total of $25M+ to end up exceeding the goal of $100M for the year.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/30/politics/hillary-clinton-fundraising-bernie-sanders/index.html

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The Cruz Campaign says they raised $20 million

[Likely Voter]

As a reminder, here are the 3rd quarter summaries.

DEM   Raised   Spent   Cash
Clinton   29.9   25.8   33.0
Sanders   26.2   11.3   27.1
O'Malley   1.3   1.8   0.8
Lessig   1.0   0.4   0.6
Webb   0.7   0.4   0.3
Chafee   0.0   0.1   0.3


GOP   Raised   Spent   Cash
Carson   20.8   14.2   11.3
Bush   13.4   11.5   10.3
Cruz   12.2   7.0   13.8
Walker   7.4   6.4   1.0
Fiorina   6.8   2.2   5.5
Rubio   5.7   4.6   11.0
Kasich   4.4   1.7   2.6
Christie   4.2   2.8   1.4
Trump   3.9   4.2   0.5
Paul   2.5   4.5   2.1
Huckabee   1.2   1.4   0.8
Graham   1.1   2.0   1.6
Jindal   0.6   0.8   0.3
Santorum   0.4   0.4   0.2
Perry   0.3   1.1   0.0
Pataki   0.1   0.3   0.0
Gilmore   0.1   0.1   0.0


red  spent > raised

[Mr. Morden]

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/12/30/ted-cruzs-fundraising-jumps-in-4th-quarter/

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[The Other Castro]

It's pretty impressive that Cruz might only trail Clinton by around 6 million in fundraising.

[Likely Voter]

I'm going to bet the order will go (not counting dropouts)...

Sanders
Clinton
Carson
Cruz
Rubio
Bush
Trump
Christie
Kasich
Fiorina
Paul
O'Malley
Huckabee
Santorum
Gilmore

[The Other Castro]

For those that we have some idea of, I'll guess roughly:
Sanders: $31 million
Clinton: $27 million
Carson: $23 million
Cruz: $20 million
Rubio: $11 million
Bush: $9 million

[Maxwell]

If Bush is below Rubio, Bush is probably finished.