Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1198970339881037829

[American2020]

The next 100 days will be critical to understanding whether President Donald Trump will win a second term in office. His approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated with reelection success.

But by mid-March of an election year, approval ratings, though, become more predictive. Presidents with low approval ratings in mid-March of an election year tend to lose, while those with strong approval ratings tend to win in blowouts and those with middling approval ratings usually win by small margins.
Let's start with where Trump is right now: an approval rating in the low 40s. Since World War II, two presidents have had an approval rating at or below 45% in mid-March of an election year. George H.W. Bush had an approval rating at 39%, while Jimmy Carter's was at 45% and falling fast. Both of them went on to lose reelection by greater than 5 points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been five presidents with an approval rating of 55% or above. There was Bill Clinton at 55%, Ronald Reagan at 55%, Richard Nixon at 58%, Dwight Eisenhower at 72% and Lyndon Johnson at 80%. All of these presidents won their elections by nine points or greater.
Finally, we have the group of presidents with approval ratings between between 46% and 54%. This includes Gerald Ford at 47%, Barack Obama at 47%, George W. Bush at 49% and Harry Truman at 51%. All of their elections were decided by less than 5 points.
Ford didn't win.

https://us.cnn.com/2019/12/07/politics/trump-100-days-reelection-analysis/index.html

[American2020]

Findings like that make Carville wonder if, in 2020, it really still is the economy, stupid.

"Trump is impervious to everything, good or bad. He just stays at 41.7," Carville said, referring to the president's approval rating in FiveThirtyEight.com's average. "I don't care how many good stories about the economy come, I don't care about how many bad stories come — it still comes up 41.7."

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-campaigning-roaring-economy-here-s-how-democrats-plan-n1102131

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1206930430605348866

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1214546454305488896

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1215447325671411716

[American2020]

From CNN Polls

The Trump argument here is clear: You may not like me as a person. You may not like my policies on, well, lots of stuff. But you are doing well. The stock market is at all-time highs. Why then would we ever consider changing horses in midstream?

Will Trump do that? Probably not. He lacks the message discipline to stay on even one message for a few days a time. But if he does wind up snatching victory from the jaws of defeat again in November, it's that economic approval number that explains it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/politics/donald-trump-victory-2020/index.html

Of course, elections aren't just about voter preference. They're about enthusiasm, too, because enthusiasm correlates with turnout.
Trump's approval rating is 54% among voters in the battleground states who are at least very enthusiastic. His disapproval rating among those voters is 45%, which puts his net approval rating at +9 points among them. Last month, it was +10 points. These two results are within the margin of error of each other.
Trump is doing his best among enthusiastic voters nationally, too. His approval rating is 49% with those who are at least very enthusiastic. His approval rating is 51% among those who are extremely enthusiastic. Last month, it was a similar 48%.
Now, none of these numbers means Trump is necessarily a favorite for reelection. Plenty of unethusiastic voters will cast ballots, and the battleground states are close.
Still, our poll continues to tell a complicated story. Trump may not be liked by Americans, and a majority may even want him thrown out of office. But he still could easily win reelection.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/politics/trump-approval-rating-analysis/index.html

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1219691444358860802

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1219371954236481537

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1220812505045446656

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1222615871073460226

[American2020]

Civiqs actually showing a decline in Trump's approval, down to 42/55.

Arizona: 47/51 (-4)
Florida: 46/51 (-5)
Georgia: 45/52 (-7)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Michigan: 42/55 (-13)
Minnesota: 42/55 (-13)
Nevada: 40/56 (-16)
New Hampshire: 40/56 (-16)
North Carolina: 44/54 (-10)
Pennsylvania: 45/52 (-7)
Texas: 49/48 (+1)
Virginia: 40/57 (-17)
Wisconsin: 47/51 (-4)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[American2020]

Marist/NBC News, Arizona and Ohio:

Turning to the general election in Arizona, President Donald Trump’s job rating among registered voters in the state is 48 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove.

In a hypothetical general election matchup in the state, Biden leads Trump by 1 point among registered voters, 47 percent to 46 percent — which is in within the poll’s margin of error.


In Ohio, Trump’s approval rating among registered voters is 46 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove.

And Biden leads the president by 4 points in the Buckeye State, 49 percent to 45 percent, while Sanders is ahead by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-marist-polls-biden-holds-big-leads-over-sanders-n1160536


 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

Maybe it's a sign blue-collar workers and working families from the Upper Midwest are fed up of Trump and ready to let him down on November.

[American2020]

Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman

For all intents and purposes, the general election campaign is underway. Yes, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is still running, but he has no realistic path to winning the Democratic nomination. That means that it's Biden vs. Trump.
And the President starts out in a very unusual place for an incumbent: behind. Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/trump-vs-biden-poll-of-the-week/index.html

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1241151670312189953

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1241153334695919617

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1241159052861804545

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1242660315990495232

[American2020]

President Trump Job Approval (Yougov)


March 23 - 25, 2020 - 1000 US adult citizens

Registered voters

Strongly approve 34%
Somewhat approve 12%
Somewhat disapprove 10%
Strongly disapprove 42%
Not sure 2%

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/0viw0g2op4/tabs_Trump_Tweets_20200323.pdf

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1243043764584820737

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1244025031572828162

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1244293120231079936

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1244292340774248450

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1244343905895829504

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1244344794744336384

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1244344904207273984

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1247888039247892481

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1248082377060089858

[American2020]

Latest Civiqs data

Overall: 43/54 (-11)

Arizona: 43/54 (-11)
Colorado: 40/57 (-17)
Florida: 46/51 (-5)
Georgia: 47/50 (-3)
Iowa: 49/49 (=)
Michigan: 45/53 (-8)
Minnesota: 43/55 (-12)
Nevada: 39/58 (-19)
New Hampshire: 38/58 (-20)
North Carolina: 44/53 (-9)
Ohio: 51/47 (+4)
Pennsylvania: 45/51 (-6)
Texas: 51/46 (+5)
Virginia: 42/56 (-14)
Wisconsin: 46/52 (-6)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1249779817958068226

[American2020]

Yep, unfortunately, there is always going to be ~40% that will remain delusional.

It's a cult of personnality like we saw in Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany and in the USSR.
Trump is a guru of a sect.