Do you really think MS would be a Dem pick up...

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This is a difficult question to answer since McDaniel is unlikely to be the nominee.  Whatever fundamental change in the race that would necessary for him to be the nominee would also have an effect on the general election.

But as it stands today, Childers vs. McDaniel is about as favorable of a matchup as Democrats could possibly get in Mississippi.  It's a shame we potentially get this race in 2014 instead of a better year for Democrats nationally.

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It depends on how gaffe prone McDaniels really is and how strong Childers really is, and I doubt either one is true. Worst case scenario, McDaniels pulls out with the narrowest of margins against Childers after saying something horrifying.

agreed, Ronnie Musgrove was much more popular than Childers, and he was on the ballot in 2008 when it was a strong Dem turnout year (African American voters being a huge part of the Dem base in MS) and he didn't come close to winning against Wicker, so Childers could break 45% but not 50+1

What?  Childers is a better candidate than Musgrove because he's from rural Northeast Mississippi, where the only whites who will consider voting Democrat live. And McDaniel (insignificant gaffe-prone state senator) is a much worse candidate than seven-term Congressman Roger Wicker.  You are right about 2014 likely being a worse Democratic year nationally than 2008, of course, but I don't think the 2008 race is applicable to this hypothetical-unlikely-to-happen one.

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With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

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With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

But all of the polls that were taken showed Chris McDaniel within range of taking him out?

Those were all taken many months and many gaffes ago...

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With Cochran - Safe R
With McDaniel - Likely R

But Cochran will win the primary so who cares.

LOL

I can't wait until you guys are wiping all that egg of your face...

I realize there hasn't been a poll in months, but no one in Mississippi is expecting McDaniel to win the primary.

The national media is only latching on to Chris McDaniel because he's the only one who has any chance to play into the "Tea Party takes down establishment" narrative.

But all of the polls that were taken showed Chris McDaniel within range of taking him out?

Those were all taken many months and many gaffes ago...

So, in other words, you have no factual basis for your speculation. Ok.

WTF are you even trying to accomplish? There's no need to get snippy about this

I've never said that McDaniel has no shot, just that I think he's going to lose. Henever lead in any polls taken months ago, and since then, he's had several small gaffes and one huge one. Mississippi doesn't have a history of being Tea Party stronghold,  and it certainly doesn't have a history of throwing out incumbents. Is any forecaster, in-state or out, predicting a McDaniel win or giving him the lean? No.

Maybe that will all change, but there's no logical basis to expect anything other than a Cochran win as of today. "It happened to Lugar too," is not a convincing argument. There's way more examples of Tea Party challengers losing than winning their primaries.

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Aaaaaand still a "no."

I don't understand why you're going all out on this. No one is saying it's likely to be a Democratic pickup. There's no bragging rights if you are correct, and an unnecessary embarrassment if you aren't.

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Aaaaaand still a "no."

I don't understand why you're going all out on this. No one is saying it's likely to be a Democratic pickup. There's no bragging rights if you are correct, and an unnecessary embarrassment if you aren't.

Not looking for bragging rights, Harry. Again, get over this idea that I'm "obsessed" with this because of you.

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. I doubt anyone else does either.

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I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

No runoff, unless something has changed recently.

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I think Childers' absolute ceiling is to come close enough to keep McDaniel just short of 50% + 1 to force a runoff. Then if GOP senate control isn't dependent on the runoff (and/or runoffs in GA and/or LA), then Cochran might endorse Childers. (He has good reason to loath McDaniels, but he won't rob McConnell and other longtime friends and colleagues of their chance to regain the majority.) Despite likely decreased black turnout for the runoff, Cochran's endorsement would have a decent chance of putting Childers over the top.

This is litterally about Childers' best shot. Otherwise, McDaniels would have to outdo santorum, Akin, and Berg combined to have a chance of blowing a race in freaking Ms. Though if anyone could go THAT far, it's McDaniels.....

Cochran doesn't have to endorse Childers, a solid 20-40% of his primary voters already dislike Chris McDaniel enough to vote against him in the GE. 

I cannot buy that.  Polling that I've seen shows that McDaniel's up 12 and only a few points weaker than Cochran.

The whole idea of a Childers victory is predicated on McDaniel imploding and blowing it ala Akin, who was up by an even larger margin at this point 2 years ago. If McDaniel can avoid major gaffes,  he is very likely to win -- the odds of Childersoutdueling a solid mMcDaniel campaign are low.