KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[n1240]

Any county that isn't close 100% of their 2016 primary total should be assumed to be election day vote only.

[n1240]

I will say this, the eastern Kentucky returns look quite bad for McGrath. She will need to do better in Jefferson county to make up some of these losses.

She's doing fine in the counties that have absentees included in their totals. Problem is we don't really know the absentee/eday split in those counties to determine how much better McGrath is doing in absentees over eday.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1275587864399675392

fairly small eday vote in Fayette but Booker dominates.

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https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1275614839524798464

[n1240]

I'm using the WaPo site.  Four counties have reported more votes than cast in 2016 primary which means the probably are reporting most early and election day voting.  They are Mason, Bath, Montgomery, and Woodford.  The latter three are in the Lexington district and Mason is just outside.  McGrath is winning those 50-30.  Not enough info to project anything yet.

These are the counties I consider "done":

Bath (McGrath+28)
Carter (McGrath+29)
Casey (McGrath+36)
Fleming (McGrath+44)
Hopkins (McGrath+25)
Lincoln (McGrath+24)
Mason (McGrath+10)
Montgomery (McGrath+18)
Pulaski (McGrath+20)
Taylor (McGrath+8)

No real geographical consistency and still no clue on the absentee/eday splits.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1275614839524798464

Whelp... on queue.

Might we have a race on our hands???

Absentees in Jefferson and Fayette will remain big question mark. I'd think Booker can win these but won't nearly match the margins in received today. McGrath should be able to rack up solid margins in the numerous mid-sized counties, might try and produce some rough estimates with what is currently known.

[n1240]

McGrath dropping fast on predictit

They must all be following Atlas Forums / Talk Elections...   (Or a Forum member is manipulating the online betting markets--- most likely scenario).

It has stabilized to 50/50, some randoms on twitter can actually have impressive sway on the markets (some account saying Booker winning Fayette by large margin implied that he would likely win, seemingly not realizing the large amount of uncounted absentees in Kentucky).

[n1240]

Something weird going on between the latest WaPo and NYT County numbers...





Something is quite a bit off....

WaPo has Fayette eday where Booker dominated.

[n1240]

Something weird going on between the latest WaPo and NYT County numbers...

Something is quite a bit off....

WaPo has Fayette eday where Booker dominated.

More than that...

Woodford and Fayette are the largest vote totals missing from NYTimes. McGrath ended up doing quite well in Woodford but not enough to offset Fayette. WaPo missing stuff like Carter and Lincoln which seem to be complete and went to McGrath by considerable margins.

[n1240]

Pay no attention to % reporting or whatever .  The total vote will likely exceed 500,000 in the D primary so pay attention to how many votes have been counted--like 10-12% of the expected total.

Thanks DINGO.... almost thought you were trying to make a point at my post for a brief second. 

The point you are accentuating is one of stories about the KY DEM SEN PRIM which totally slips under the radar of the MSM...

Record PRIM Turnout (TO) % numbers in KY, despite the lack of a competitive DEM/PUB PRES PRIM, simply as a result of shifting to a hybrid ED and VbM Model....

Don't know about a record turnout, as 2008 D was over 600,000 votes

About 880k votes as of today, SOS is apparently expecting about 185k more absentees to come in which seems like a ridiculously high estimate as it would put them at 90% absentees returned, considering other states that transitioned to heavy VBM setups - Georgia reached 82% (no late postmarks though); West Virginia reached 86%, but they were at around 80% on election day; not completely sure about PA but the counties that accepted late absentees received around 3-6% of their absentees after election day and generally ended up around 70-80% turnout. Ohio

If the rate at which late ballots come in here are similar to PA and WV, we'd expect the rate of return to dramatically slow and might only end up with something like 40-50k more absentees.

Assuming about 930k votes might expect something like 560k votes assuming a 60/40 D/R split based off 2019 gubernatorial. I'll try and come up with a better estimate taking a dive into the eday splits and the complete county splits, I'd think if anything, the D split of votes may be less than 60%, but it's possible that disproportionately high vote in Fayette and Jefferson could skew it above.

[n1240]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too.  

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

Definitely possible that McGrath can win while losing Jefferson and Fayette by 40+ and 30+ points respectively. There is still doubts on how well she will do on absentees as a whole though, and we really don't have a clue of the eday/absentee splits in the counties that are reporting absentees thus far. An argument can be made that the absentee reporting counties are not necessarily representative of non-Jefferson/Fayette parts of a state as a whole, considering 4/12 of these counties are in McGrath's district. Woodford County is a bit of an intriguing result though even though it is in McGrath's district since it seems like Booker won the eday vote in surrounding counties but McGrath ended up comfortably ahead in Woodford on their eday+absentee count, which makes it wonder if it's possible that Booker won the eday vote there.

Fayette county seems to be decent at providing information of ballot returns, they went from 73% to 81% returned from yesterday to today, and 65% to 73% from Tuesday to yesterday, I'd think that the rate of return would slow dramatically from this point on but who knows, I still feel like the 90% estimated statewide return rate by the SOS is ridiculously bullish.  

[n1240]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too.  

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

Definitely possible that McGrath can win while losing Jefferson and Fayette by 40+ and 30+ points respectively. There is still doubts on how well she will do on absentees as a whole though, and we really don't have a clue of the eday/absentee splits in the counties that are reporting absentees thus far. An argument can be made that the absentee reporting counties are not necessarily representative of non-Jefferson/Fayette parts of a state as a whole, considering 4/12 of these counties are in McGrath's district. Woodford County is a bit of an intriguing result though even though it is in McGrath's district since it seems like Booker won the eday vote in surrounding counties but McGrath ended up comfortably ahead in Woodford on their eday+absentee count, which makes it wonder if it's possible that Booker won the eday vote there.

Fayette county seems to be decent at providing information of ballot returns, they went from 73% to 81% returned from yesterday to today, and 65% to 73% from Tuesday to yesterday, I'd think that the rate of return would slow dramatically from this point on but who knows, I still feel like the 90% estimated statewide return rate by the SOS is ridiculously bullish.  

There is no way she would be able to do this if this was to be true. Jefferson and Fayette are going to be over a third of the primary vote and she is not winning by nearly enough in the rest of the state to offset those sorts of landslide margins.

Considering her strength in the absentee reporting areas it's possible but not likely of course (would have to win rest of state by 20%). The theoretical Jefferson/Fayette results I mentioned may also be a bit bullish for Booker.

https://twitter.com/Mirandacombs27/status/1276217415110713344

Statewide absentee return went from 68.5% -> 77.1% from yesterday to today. Joe Sonka claimed 161k mail-in absentees from Jefferson, although it's possible the Clerk gave him the combined mail-in + early vote absentee totals.

[n1240]

Where are you seeing which areas have already counted absentee ballots?

Counties that are close to 100% of 2016 vote totals or exceeded 2016 vote totals I'm assuming have already counted absentees: Bath, Carter, Casey, Fleming, Hopkins, Lewis, Lincoln, Mason, Montgomery, Pulaski, Taylor, Woodford. Davies also has partial absentee count (they seem to have around 50-60% of their absentees counted).

[n1240]

Any guess as to what county will be Booker's third best county?  Maybe Franklin or Warren.  ED vote in  suburban Louisville doesn't look promising and I doubt he had enough recognition in NKY to do well.    ED vote in two military counties (Hardin and Christian) were good for Booker, but again I doubt they'll hold up with the early vote. 

Combination of high AA proportion in Christian + election day vote makes me think it would be his 3rd best there. Still quite possible there is a complete turnaround with the absentee vote though, the election day vote was skewed towards Hopkinsville since it was the only in-person polling place location, and it's where it'd be expected that Booker would do better there than the rest of the county.

Warren may be a possibility as well, not so sure about Franklin considering how well McGrath did in Franklin.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1276620403214082048

Might be overanalyzing this but it's a bit of an underwhelming result for Booker. The initial Daviess dump was a combination of election day + absentees received before election day. New results include absentees received on election day or after, ideally Booker would want to better with these ballots, but the margin being equal to the countywide result isn't a promising sign, when conventional wisdom was that Booker should be expected to do better on absentees.

Only one county where we have a clear view of late absentee votes thus far, but still not a promising sign for Booker. Of course he will still do very well on Jefferson and Fayette absentees but he definitely won't match the election day margins he racked up in those counties.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/KYSecState/status/1276633551614722060

Booker won election day vote by 5% and then proceeded to be washed out in absentee votes, allowing McGrath to win the county by 30%.

[n1240]

Of course, right after I go through typing that up Daviess dumps votes...

Local Newspaper has results matching NYTimes in Boyd County, might be inclined to think their numbers there are better?

[n1240]

So while I am thinking about the topic...

Let's look at a few of these counties where DDHQ results are coming from (without any knowledge as to ED / EV VBm, Late VbM):

1,) Barren County--- goes from NYT:

Booker 353 (53%), McGrath (47%) 314  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 667)    + 39 Bookers

to.... DDHQ:

Booker 485 (55%)   McGrath--- 391 (45%)  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 876)   +94 Booker

Booker= +132 (63%)  McGrath= +77 (37%) (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes= (209)

2.) Campbell County --- goes from Washington Post to DDHQ:

Booker-- 390 (60%) McGrath 262 (40%)  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 652)  + 128 Booker

Booker-- Booker 715 (53%)  McGrath (47%)---  641   (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 1,356)  + 74 Booker

Booker= +325 (46%)  McGrath= +379 (54%)=== (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes= (704)

3.) Jessamine County  --- goes from NYT to DDHQ:

Booker-  362 (65%  McGrath (35%) 198   (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 560)   + 164 Booker

Booker 438 (63%)  McGrath (37%)  259   (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 697)   + 179 Booker

Booker=  +76 Votes (55%)  McGrath (45%) + 61 Votes  (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes = 137)   + 15 Booker

4.) Greenup County: goes from WaPo to DDHQ:

Booker 105 (36%) McGrath 189  (64%) (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 294)   + 84 McGrath

Booker 297 (40%)   McGrath 440 (60%)  (TOT Two Candidate Votes = 737)  + 143 McGrath   

Booker=  +192 Votes (43%)  McGrath +251 Votes (57%) (TOT Two Candidate NEW Votes = 443)   + 59 McGrath

So.... not sure about ED / EV VbM / Late VbM, but some of these numbers might suggest that Absentee / VbM Ballots aren't as universally McGrath as some have posited?

Still early, but yet another data point fwiw in one of the strangest SEN Primaries in recent years...
   

I would think that some counties having multiple polling places could describe discrepancies between the websites but it doesn't really explain Campbell County having three different results with two polling places or Barren County having three different sets of results with one polling place. Possible that there is a mix of early in-person vote in some DDHQ results? The volume of votes in these counties makes it very unlikely a substantial number of mail-in votes are included; Barren at 19.4% of 2016, Campbell 22.3%, Jessamine 21.7%, Greenup 26.9%.

Greenup claims 2800 in-person votes which is a bit less than the senate D + R votes counted on DDHQ (2487). Barren claimed about 2700 in-person + early in-person total, slightly less than DDHQ combined total of 2693. Campbell had 2800 in-person by 3 PM and there are 3888 senate votes on DDHQ, not unreasonable to think it's just eday votes there (also 1500 early in-person). Can't find any numbers in Jessamine.

[n1240]

Personal take on where the race stands given the available information, I'd say it's probably 75/25 in favor of McGrath to win. I think it's reasonable to think she does significantly better on absentees in Jefferson and Fayette but still loses each county by around 25-40% and 15-30% respectively, but there is still a great degree of uncertainty. Election day vote can be heavily skewed and unrepresentative in areas with only one polling place so it's possible Booker does upwards of around 40% worse in absentee vote in these counties.

[n1240]

Looking through some newspapers across KY to find when results will come out for certain counties, here is what I can find (some of these were from n1240's links above, others finding myself):
Boyd County - Monday
Carter County - Monday
Greenup County - Tuesday
Scott County - Tuesday (Source)
Jessamine County - "counting through June 27" (Source)
Warren County - "likely won't be in before June 30" (Source)

If anyone else can find anything for other counties, that would be greatly appreciated.

Would expect most counties to certify June 30, possible the larger counties might miss the deadline, though. Might be able to expect a few scattered certifications on Monday.

[n1240]

https://www.wcluradio.com/2020/06/29/nearly-8000-barren-co-votes-cast-in-primary-election/

Barren County releases near full results, missing about 900 votes still (adding gop prez + dem senate numbers gets about 7150). McGrath currently leads by 9% there, after trailling by 9% on election day.

Shelby County - election day vote is likely lumped in with absentee vote (if it isn't then the GOP turnout is higher than it was during the 2019 general, doesn't seem reasonable). about 19% swing assuming my eday + absentee lump assumption is correct.



Floyd County added to NYTimes, may or may not be complete given how low Dem turnout is compared to 2016 (I'd expect it to be low, maybe 70% of 2016, not 55%). McGrath leads by 27%, held 1% lead from eday votes.

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https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1277648042322284546

McGrath+12 -> McGrath+28 (estimated)

https://twitter.com/KYSecState/status/1277652983371771905

Wayne: Booker won election day narrowly but McGrath wins overall by 41

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/KYSecState/status/1277654910310498305

Odd how McGrath seemingly lost 4 votes from earlier reports. Also interesting how Booker narrowly won election day votes here.

[n1240]

McGrath wins Hardin by 0.2% per WaPo (Booker+17 on eday)

[n1240]

Thread of small county results

https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1277681121501872128

Lewis

McGrath: 293 (66.9%)
Booker: 93 (21.2%)

McGrath: 645
Booker: 316

Carlisle
McGrath: 328
Booker: 151

While McGrath has some very healthy margins in these counties, a concern may be large dips in turnout in Demosaur counties like Floyd and Webster may limit the effects these counties have on the final margin, although these counties make up a pretty small percentage of the state as a whole still.