KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[Oryxslayer]

Dems can't do much better than her here, so it's good they got a nice recruit. But this race is Safe R, and will only go Democratic in the 1% scenario Trump sits on his ass while the economy goes off a cliff in September and McConnell is caught napping. Hell, that might not even be enough: if Bevin ends up winning than we know that Kentucky is too far gone for even a 2008 scenario to produce a democratic victory.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1148561454037184512?s=19

I mean, he ain't wrong.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1148659663715520512?s=19

Nate, No! Don't give them false hope!

[Oryxslayer]

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

[Oryxslayer]

1+2 =/= 4. Just because Gray carried KY06 in 2016 does not mean he would carry it in 2018. When one runs statewide they end up with a brand more generic than a district brand. The less constituents, the more tailored your campaign and brand must be. Ossoff is going to learn this in a few months when he carries GA06, even if loses the state. More relevant to the discussion though is Paul Davis in KS-02, who carried the seat when he ran against Brownback, but then lost the seat in 2018.

Am I defending McGrath? Nope, all I am saying is that both Gray and McGrath would have lost KY06 by a small margin. There are just too many ancestral democrats in the seat for a democrat to win when running a focused district campaign.

Similarly, Democrats are going to lose KY-Sen by at least 20 points no matter who is nominated, so who cares who wins the seat next week.

[Oryxslayer]

Gray won Ky06 not just because he did better than Hillary in the coalfields but also because he was mayor of Lexington, he broke 60% in Fayette in 2016 of all years which is the first time I think that a Democrat has broken 60% in Fayette, in a statewide race this century.

Jim Gray was the mayor of Lexington.

I see you guys ignored the example of KS02, which I think is the most relevant example of what a hypothetical KY-06 election with Gray would have looked like. Davis kept his margin from 2014 in Lawrence, but lost ground everywhere else, leading to a close loss.

[Oryxslayer]

I see you guys ignored the example of KS02, which I think is the most relevant example of what a hypothetical KY-06 election with Gray would have looked like. Davis kept his margin from 2014 in Lawrence, but lost ground everywhere else, leading to a close loss.

Not a perfect example, federal vs. state race. Jim Gray performing as well as he did in KY-06 (and he performed well) despite no aid from the national party and probably being hurt by the top of the ticket more than he was helped. No question he was formidable and an incredibly well-defined entity in the district.

McGrath also (in)famously refused to run negative ads against Barr, hard to imagine Gray doing the same.

Yes it's not a perfect example, but its better than looking backwards with Rose-tinted glasses and imagining what might have been. The past is written, the ink is dry. The job now is to find future battles, and KY-Sen is not a battle worth fighting, so who cares who wins.

[Oryxslayer]

Matt Jones and Rocky Adkins should have run.

They would have had a hope (along with either of the Beshears - Schumer really should have gone full Bullock on all four of them), but probably still wouldn't have been favoured. KY might not have provided Democrats with a tragedy by avoiding their nomination and tantalisingly close defeat, but the state may yet come through with the best political comedy of 2020: a primary loss for the most well-funded congressional challenger of all time.

I remember how much of a chance Bredesen had in TN, and a Beshear or any ancestral Dem would have had just as much luck. If Booker wins the primary, good for him. He has the honor of being the protest vote for the 40% of the state that doesn't approve of Mitch. He and everyone should be aware though that about a third of those voters will be Trump voters who just don't like Mitch and would want another Republican...and that 40% is about any Dem's ceiling unless they are running for Gov.

[Oryxslayer]

Halfway through the process, we are getting results from this experiment of titanic-scale voting centers that can handle the capacity and COVID safety. In Louisville, as posted above, there are no lines other than the morning rush, and the only problem voters have stated is navigating the parking lot. In Lexington, the smaller of the two big cities, it is just under an hour wait (after the morning rush) from the back of the line. The difference appears to be that Louisville implemented their early voting better than Lexington, so more voters had another option.

Smaller cities are matching Louisville. Frankfort, the Cincinnati suburbs, and Paducah have 5 minute waits. In those cases, the huge polling centers, usually sports arenas or convention centers, are more than enough to capture capacity for the area.

Probably hurts McGrath that it's Lexington with the lines - her campaign is helping distribute masks and water to those waiting inside the stadium.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1275570907310891008?s=20

Reminder. Obviously some of these votes are republicans, and not all expected ballots will be returned. Some counties will count absentees tonight. Others, most notably the Big ones, will not.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/KySportsRadio/status/1275614839524798464

Hearsay until proven otherwise. Don't give me hope!

I mean it's good for Booker, but this is like the grains of Salt tweeted out before Polls close. We know Booker dominated the precinct, but what about the large uncounted Early vote? Or the rest of the vote in the 30ish counties that have reported nothing, and the many more without their early vote. In truth, we only know when the count gets serious in a few days.

[Oryxslayer]

Pay no attention to % reporting or whatever .  The total vote will likely exceed 500,000 in the D primary so pay attention to how many votes have been counted--like 10-12% of the expected total.

In 2016 it was 426K, so the total may be lower than your 500K, but that doesn't change that fact that everyone should just put this race on the back-burner and tune back in later.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember, don't get hyped until the majority of votes show up at 6/30.

[Oryxslayer]

Booker+24 with 150k total votes in jeff

GG McGrath wins.

[Oryxslayer]

Wasserman’s not calling it even though he’s called other races with far less.

He's not using DDHQ, so he doesn't see about 30 of the rurals.

[Oryxslayer]

In Other News:

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1277977909253165058?s=20

Based out of Oldham and eastern Jefferson.

[Oryxslayer]

In Other News:

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1277977909253165058?s=20

Based out of Oldham and eastern Jefferson.

Isn't this the race where the Democrat was losing 75-25 on election night?

Somewhere around that - that was certainly the margin in Oldham E-Day. People need to learn fast that the election isn't over until all votes are counted or else they are in for some heavy duty whiplash.

[Oryxslayer]

My question here is how many counties will McGrath win come November? I honestly only think 5-10; she will win Fayette and Jefferson, but after that I would guess Franklin, Elliot, Wolfe, Bath, and Rowan; maybe in a stretch she might pick up Campbell or Boone or something.

There are only enough Presidential Dem voters in KY for Biden to carry Fayette, Jefferson, and Franklin, maybe with a few pluralities in the sububrs. However, there are enough anti-Turtle voters for her, or Booker if he won, to get to high-30s or 40%, but no higher. So I wouldn't be surprised if she got not just Elliot and some neighboring rurals (Old D's in coal fields won't a different kind of Republican) but also some suburbs.