UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[CumbrianLefty]

The deal may well get through, but surely the difference now is that MPs will have some proper time to "scrutinise" it?

(in some cases "scrutinise" means just what it says, in other cases rather different)

[CumbrianLefty]

His not signing it is irrelevant legally.

Overwhelming legal opinion is that he has complied with what he was required to do, however sulkily. The multiple letters stunt was a typical Cummings "galaxy brain" idea which could yet backfire as previous ones have.

[CumbrianLefty]

Supporters of "no deal remaining on the table" have made comparisons with Mutually Assured Destruction.

The difference is, it wouldn't be that - the "destruction" would be massively disproportionately on one side.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1185605845440180231?s=19

Very sceptical of this; there’s 20 anti 2nd ref labour (some may abstain) and still not enough second referendum supporters among the ex Tories.

The numbers would be very tight, and as of writing I think it would probably fail to pass, but that's not the only dynamic at work. There will be multiple opportunities to amend the Withdrawal Act, by the Commons and the Lords, any one of which could produce an amendment that one or another side of the debate find intolerable. An amendment for permanent UK-wide customs union failed only by 2 votes back in April.

There's also the not insignificant matter of the actual confidence of the house. If the DUP voted against the government in a VONC there is no way there would be enough non-Tory (or ex-Tory Independents) votes to avoid a government defeat. Provided the EU granted an extension through to January as requested* there would be an election *after* the deal had passed but *before* it took effect and the UK was no longer a member of the EU.

*There's a non-zero chance the EU will provide a 'counter offer' of an earlier date, which would complicate matters quite a bit. That said, I think the EU will do as little as possible to interject themselves further into the UK's domestic political melodrama, and so will opt for the least controversial step - to grant the extension request as written.

Not impossible they might offer a longer one, despite the opposition from the likes of Macron - not least as it could be framed as "this is the chance to sort your s*** out once and for all"

[CumbrianLefty]

You mean its actually Labour's fault that both Lewis and Woodcock were credibly accused of sexual harassment? The party machinery can be blamed for much, but that - not really.

(what happened to the "fully independent" investigation that the latter promised, btw?)

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbf that wasn't clear from the previous post

There's all sorts of this stuff going on with all "sides" at the minute. When the government of the day has a big majority it doesn't matter so much, but right now.......

[CumbrianLefty]

Hard to argue with his reasoning tbh.

Another stunt from "MASSIVE BRAIN" Cummings gone wrong?

[CumbrianLefty]

No guarantee that MPs will vote for such a ridiculously restrictive timetable.

It also has to pass not just through the EU but the devolved assemblies, reportedly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

His mouthpiece Cummings "claimed" that earlier today and the likes of Laura K and Peston reliably stenographed for him as they always do.

From the vote it seems this latest scare tactic may have rebounded. Again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

I don't doubt he would do that, but it's WAY more complicated. He doesn't have the ability to call an election without a good deal of the opposition wishing it to happen. He also doesn't have control over the EU's response to the Burt-Benn Act mandated extension request. Statutorily, Johnson sent a letter asking for an extension to January 31, 2020. If the EU accepts this, an election is viable. If it counteroffers something shorter, an election becomes much more difficult to organize with the time remaining.

As it stands, it seems Johnson will lobby the EU for a shorter extension so he can shanghai the opposition into voting his deal through (on his timetable), lest they risk a no-deal crash out at the end of the shortened extension date. What the EU will do in this position is very uncertain. They want to be rid of this wretched farce, but they also don't want to interject themselves into UK politics any more than they have to. (There also might be a rump of those who hope an election might bring a remainer government to power, but I wouldn't put too much faith on this).

Bottom line: Remain just barely lives to fight another day.

Johnson may "lobby" for a shorter extension, but Jan 31 is the date mentioned in his letter and it is very likely the EU will stick to that (indeed, they *could* in theory offer a longer one too, but I don't expect that to happen either)

And as was indeed the case with May's extension which is about to end, we could still actually leave the EU at the end of December or (less likely) November if things are wrapped up by then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

[CumbrianLefty]

Repealing the FTPA - certainly in its present form - would probably get a majority of MPs now.

But any such bill would take more than a day to pass, and could indeed be amended. Which would put any remaining chance of a 2019 GE to bed.

I get the impression that despite the current positioning, both sides would be *happier* with an early 2020 poll in any case - if so the question is how to finesse that outcome.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lets hope the Tories get a majority, then they can push through Brexit

Johnson is arguably declining the opportunity to "push through Brexit" right now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lets hope the Tories get a majority, then they can push through Brexit

Johnson is arguably declining the opportunity to "push through Brexit" right now.

I doubt the SNP, Lib Dems, and Labour leadership would be pushing for a longer timetable if they didn't think it would guarantee that they could sink Johnson's deal.

Depends what you mean by "sink" - there *is* a good chance a Customs Union amendment may get through, but that is still Brexit and would nonetheless mean our PM could claim he had "got it done".

[CumbrianLefty]

the issue is that you can't just 'repeal the fixed term parliament act' without passing a replacement.  Prior to 2011 the power to dissolve governments or call elections was entirely a prerogative power entirely in the hands of the Crown; and the government therefore handled it.  Once you take an area of law and pass legislation on it parliament is overriding that prerogative power and saying that area is now one that Parliament has interest in: and once you do that constitutionally you can't go back to what happened before since constitutionally its no longer a matter for the Monarch.  What a straight repeal would do is actually make it impossible FOR parliament to dissolve itself since no one would have any powers to do it.

Just give the power to dissolve parliament directly to the PM, and not the Crown, or reduce the majority required for dissolution to a simple majority.

I think it's becoming clear to people that Labour is making up excuses to deny an election because they're afraid they'll lose. Remember when Corbyn said that they would vote for an election once the Benn Act had passed parliament?

He actually said "when the threat of no deal was totally off the table" - which it is almost, but not quite, at the time of writing. More to the point though is that it isn't just "Labour" - the entire opposition (*) is united in not wanting to give Johnson a 12th Dec election *on the terms he has set out*. Which is that parliament, as well as generously agreeing to that, will in return also generously agree to rush through his Brexit bill first.
 
They have told him, quite rightly, he can have a December GE or more time to pass his bill into law.

But not both.

And in response to this perfectly reasonable position, last night Cummings had another tantrum

(* this thus includes the SNP and LibDems, both of whom stand to gain from an election right now)

[CumbrianLefty]

No deal is not officially off the table until the UK formally extends A50. Which hasn't happened yet.

It is also generally accepted that Corbyn and his supporters do want an election soon.

Its largely his whiny brat critics in the PLP who don't.

(plus those who still delude themselves that *this* parliament will vote for a referendum, somehow)

[CumbrianLefty]

The depressing truth is that neither will care much if they win seats for themselves in the process

[CumbrianLefty]

Because in early 2017 (when that happened) literally nobody saw no deal as a serious prospect?

This really isn't hard.

[CumbrianLefty]

So what is the sting in "almost identical", I wonder?

[CumbrianLefty]

Will the Lib Dems get 100 seats or will they get a little bit above Clegg's 2010 seat count?

Or will they actually get significantly less than even that?

[CumbrianLefty]

Will the Lib Dems get 100 seats or will they get a little bit above Clegg's 2010 seat count?

I'd be very surprised (and elated) if they got more than Clegg did in 2010

That would almost certainly mean (as then) no Tory majority.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway, the amendments don't matter, because there isn't any support from the Tory benches (or the ex-Tory independents) for any expansion of the franchise. They'll just get voted down.

You don't think some of the ex-Tories might actually back enfranchising EU nationals?

(unlike 16-17 year olds, this one would be relatively simple to administer as well)

[CumbrianLefty]

The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.

No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.

Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?

[CumbrianLefty]

The LibDems and SNP have finally shown their true colors, it seems. They don't give a sh*t about stopping BoJo's hard-Brexit deal, or even about taking No Deal off the table. They'll happily throw all that under the bus and let put a hard-right Tory government in power if that allows them to win a few seats.

What a shameful, disgusting bunch of third-rate hacks. If Remainers really want to put their trust in them, they deserve everything that's coming to them.

No. They actually have principles, and are fighting to ensure the UK never leaves the EU. The real hacks are Labour, who refuse to take a definative position and fight hard to stop the greatest threat to the UK in decades.

Hey guys? Neither of you want to see a Conservative majority (granted, the Lib Dems don’t want to see a Labour majority either).

Is there a chance of Labour-SNP-LD somehow getting a majority? And if so, would the SNP ever consider joining a government? I can’t imagine the Lib Dems want to govern with the Conservatives for a long time yet, so I am curious about what kind of coalition could possibly happen.

You might think that, but have you heard anything Swinson has said since she became leader?

Yeah. It's obvious posturing for a Lib-Lab-Grn-SNP election with anyone non Momentum as PM, which is obviously the best realistic solution.

Other parties don't get to dictate to Labour who their leader should be.

Even if Corbyn stepped aside for some reason in that scenario, his successor would also be from the left. Because that is what the majority of the party currently wants.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, that would make sense (and has happened before, eg at the 1983 and 1992 GEs)

That opens the admittedly fairly remote prospect of the current front runner to replace him (Lindsay Hoyle) losing his seat if the Tories have an exceptionally good election.