TX CBS/YouGov Tracker: Cruz +6

[Brittain33]

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

Me too.

Interesting as well that there was a net benefit to R interest if he was rejected, as we all suspected.

If Kavanaugh had been rejected and Trump had a new nominee up when Election Day came around, it would have been armageddon for Dem chances in the Senate.

[Brittain33]

But true to form, it looks like FiveThirtyEight has actually increased Beto's chance of winning from 27.9% to 28.6%. They turned Cruz's 6-point lead into a 3.9-point lead and decreased his margin in the polling average. I understand how they did it, but I've been a little skeptical of their methodology.

Sometimes, I think algorithmic complexity can just get in the way of the obvious.

Well, it's not like 27.9% or 28.6% are at all good for Beto.