Districts based on Obama '08 voters (user search)
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Author Topic: Districts based on Obama '08 voters  (Read 1778 times)
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #25 on: August 28, 2020, 09:38:29 PM »
Massachusetts, 12 districts



MA-01: Southeast MA. Obama +10.3, 92% white. Will probably elect some awful neoliberal.

MA-02: Bristol County area. Obama +21.4 (60-38), white-hispanic-black 86-6-5.

MA-03: Southern Boston Suburbs. Obama +15.4, white-black-asian 75-16-8.



MA-04: South Boston. Obama +59.5 (79-20), white-hispanic-black-asian 40-23-31-8.

MA-05: North Boston. Obama +55.8 (77-21), white-hispanic-black-asian 67-11-9-13. Includes Cambridge.

MA-06: North Bay. Obama +22.5 (60-38), white-hispanic-black-asian 79-10-6-6.

MA-07: Western Boston Suburbs. Obama +34.1, white-hispanic-asian 80-5-11

MA-08: Northeast MA. Obama +15.4, white-hispanic-asian 73-16-7.

MA-09: Obama +18.3, white-asian 86-6.

MA-10: North-Central MA. Obama +14.6, white-hispanic-asian 83-7-6.

MA-11: South-Central MA. Obama +24.5, white-hispanic-black 67-20-10. Springfield in the far western part of the district.

MA-12: West MA. Obama +40.3 (69-29), 89% white.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #26 on: August 29, 2020, 07:27:19 PM »
Here's a share link to the IL map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/320b42f3-2c97-4d93-a0cc-ece869c8e8fd
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #27 on: September 15, 2020, 08:35:01 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2020, 02:25:10 PM by bagelman »


Maryland, 10 districts.

MD-01: Eastern Shore. McCain +8.3, white-hispanic-black 76-5-17. Crosses the bay to gain Annapolis.

MD-02: Northwest DC suburbs. Obama +25.8 (62-37), white-hispanic-black-asian 54-13-17-17.

MD-03: Inner Northwest DC suburbs. Obama +50.1 (75-24), white-hispanic-black-asian 55-17-15-13.

MD-04: NW/North/East Baltimore suburbs. Obama +18.9 (59-40), white-hispanic-black 65-5-25.

MD-05: North Baltimore and some suburbia. Obama +93.4 (97-3), white-black 7-91.

MD-06: South Baltimore and suburbs. Obama +26.5 (62-36), white-hispanic-black-asian 55-7-30-9.

MD-07: Northeast DC suburbs. Obama +57.9 (78-21), white-hispanic-black-asian 28-23-42-8.

MD-08: East DC suburbs. Obama +92.7 (96-4), white-hispanic-black 5-5-89.

MD-09: South MD. Obama +17, white-black 59-33.

MD-10: North and West MD. McCain +19.7 (59-39), white-black 85-7.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #28 on: September 15, 2020, 08:40:15 PM »
Maine, 3 districts



ME-1: Southwest. Obama +29.8, 93% white

ME-2: West. Obama +14.3, 95% white

ME-3: East. Obama +9.7, 95% white
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #29 on: September 15, 2020, 08:46:24 PM »
Michigan, 18 districts



MI-01: West Detroit, Obama +93 (96-3), white-hispanic-black 14-12-73.

MI-02: East Detroit, Obama +72.9 (86-13), white-black 24-71.

MI-03: Outer Detroit, Obama +64.9 (82-17), white-black 41-55.

MI-04: Dearborn, Obama +30.7 (64-34), white-hispanic-black 77-6-15.

MI-05: Western and Southern Suburbs, Obama +9.7, white-black-asian 79-10-8.

MI-06: Northern Suburbs, Obama +14, white-black-asian 74-13-8. Includes Pontiac

MI-07: Northeast Suburbs, Obama +13.5, white-black 83-11.

MI-08: Ann Arbor and northward, Obama +23.5 (61-38), white-black-asian 79-10-7.

MI-09: Far North Suburbs. McCain +6.2, 91% white.

MI-10: Flint metro, Obama +28.1, white-black 75-20.



MI-11: Southeast Michigan, Obama +4, white-black 88-6. Monroe, Jackson, and Battle Creek.

MI-12: Lansing area, Obama +18.2, white-hispanic-black 80-6-10.

MI-13: East-Central + The Thumb. Obama +8.6, white-hispanic-black 85-5-8. Saginaw as the largest city, but also includes an outer slice of the Lansing area.

MI-14: Southwest Michigan. Obama +11.3, white-hispanic-black 81-5-11. Largest city of Kalamazoo.

MI-15: Michigan Dutch Country. McCain +17.4, white-hispanic 88-6. Includes suburbs of Grand Rapids, but not the city.

MI-16: Central West Michigan. Obama +19.1. Carves out Grand Rapids city in the east.

MI-17: North Central Michigan. Obama +1.7, 93% white. Mostly rural.

MI-18: North Michigan. Obama +1.2, white-native 92-5. Mostly rural.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #30 on: September 15, 2020, 08:53:49 PM »
Minnesota, 10 districts



MN-01: St. Paul. Obama +38.8 (68-30), white-hispanic-black-asian 64-8-14-14.

MN-02: Downtown Minneapolis and northern suburbs. Obama +48.8 (73-25), white-hispanic-black-asian 53-11-26-9. Created to maximize minority representation.

MN-03: South Minneapolis inner suburbs. Obama +27.8 (63-35), white-hispanic-black-asian 79-7-8-6.



MN-04: South and East suburbs. Obama +3.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 85-5-5-5.

MN-05: Southeast Minnesota. Obama +7.4, white-hispanic 89-5. Rochester.

MN-06: Southwest Minnesota. McCain +7.8, white-hispanic 89-5. Includes some outer suburbs.

MN-07: Northeast Minnesota. Obama +5, 88% white.

MN-08: Western Suburbs. Obama +5.1, white-black 87-5.

MN-09: West Central Minnesota. McCain +9, 93%. Includes St. Cloud.

MN-10: North Minnesota. Obama +9.7, white-native 90-6.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #31 on: September 15, 2020, 08:57:48 PM »
Missouri, 9 districts



MO-1: North St. Louis. Obama +73 (86-13), white-black 24-74.

MO-2: South St. Louis. Obama +45.2 (72-27), white-black-asian 63-28-5.

MO-3: Suburban St. Louis. McCain +8.2, white-black-asian 87-6-5.

MO-4: East Missouri south of STL. McCain +1.9, 94% white.

MO-5: North Missouri. McCain +14.3, 91% white. Mostly rural/small town district with some exurbs in the west.

MO-6: Central-West Missouri. Obama +17.3, white-hispanic-black 72-9-16. Connects Columbia to north Kansas City and it's northern suburbs.

MO-7: South Kansas City and suburbs. Obama +17.4, white-hispanic-black 70-5-23.

MO-8: Central and Southeast Missouri. McCain +25.7 (62-36), white-black 90-6. Includes the small state captial and small conservative cities.

MO-9: Southwest Missouri. McCain +28.9 (64-35), 91% white. Anchored by Springfield.

The 4th is supposed to defend a blue dog democrat, but any McCain district will be willing to elect a Republican. Still, 5R-4D isn't bad for Missouri.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2020, 09:00:58 PM »


Mississippi, 4 districts.

MS-1: Southwest, Obama +20.4 (60-40), white-black 38-60.

MS-2: Northwest, Obama +5.3, white-black 48-48.

MS-3: Northeast, McCain +26.8 (63-36), white-black 67-29.

MS-4: Southeast, McCain +31.3 (65-34), white-black 67-28.

The northwestern seat isn't really safe, but it does lean D. All other seats are safe, making this an even split.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2020, 09:07:36 PM »


North Carolina, 13 districts

NC-01: Entire coast. McCain +22.9, white-hispanic-black 75-7-15.

NC-02: Northeast NC. Obama +17.7, white-hispanic-black 47-5-46.

NC-03: Southeast NC. Obama +12.5, white-hispanic-black-native 47-10-34-9.

NC-04: North Raleigh suburbia. Obama +5, white-hispanic-black 59-9-30.

NC-05: Raleigh. Obama +17.6, white-hispanic-black 60-11-25.

NC-06: Research Triangle area. Obama +43 (71-28 exact), white-hispanic-black-asian 56-10-24-11.

NC-07: Central NC. Obama +6.3, white-hispanic-black 63-10-25. Includes most of Greensboro.

NC-08: Triple Central Metro. Obama +8.3, white-hispanic-black 58-11-27. Winston-Salem, High Point, western Greensboro and Lexington.

NC-09: South Central NC. Obama +2.5, white-hispanic-black 61-11-22.

NC-10: Charlotte. Obama +35 (67-35), white-hispanic-black-asian 43-12-41-5.

NC-11: Central Northwest NC. McCain +32.6 (66-33), white-hispanic-black 85-6-8.

NC-12: West NC. Obama +1.3, white-hispanic-black 80-7-10. Anchored by Asheville, stretches all the way to Salisbury and includes the Cherokee nation.

NC-13: Southwest NC. McCain +27.1 (63-36), white-hispanic-black 84-5-9. As far east as Mooresville.

10-3 Obama-McCain, although Republicans should be able to take a couple competitive seats. Only half of the Obama seats are Safe D. 
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #34 on: September 15, 2020, 09:10:35 PM »


New Jersey, 14 districts.

NJ-01: Hudson, Obama +45.9 (73-27), white-hispanic-black-asian 31-41-14-16.

NJ-02: Nearer Suburbia, Obama +19.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 53-23-9-15.

NJ-03: Newark and west. Obama +84.2 (92-8), white-hispanic-black 11-21-68.

NJ-04: Further Suburbia, Paterson area. Obama +29.3 (64-35), white-hispanic-black-asian 44-36-15-7.

NJ-05: Furthest North. McCain +13.2, white-hispanic-asian 85-7-6.

NJ-06: Newark Suburbs. Obama +25.7 (62-37), white-hispanic-black-asian 50-26-19-7.

NJ-07: Northwest exurbs and rurals. McCain +9.5, white-hispanic-asian 78-9-9.

NJ-08: New Brunswick area. Obama +27.7 (63-36), white-hispanic-black-asian 43-22-13-23.

NJ-09: Trenton area. Obama +26.8 (63-36), white-hispanic-black-asian 59-12-17-12.

NJ-10: Northern Shore. Obama +2.1, white-hispanic-black-asian 72-11-9-9.

NJ-11: Central Shore. McCain +17, white-hispanic 86-8.

NJ-12: Burlington County-Camden City. Obama +33.3 (62-33), white-hispanic-black-asian 57-14-25-6.

NJ-13: Camden County. Obama +24.3 (62-37), white-hispanic-black-asian 76-6-14-5.

NJ-14: South Shore. Obama +10.7, white-hispanic-black 65-15-16.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #35 on: September 15, 2020, 09:15:16 PM »


New Mexico, 3 districts

NM-1: Albuquerque. Obama +22, white-hispanic 44-46.

NM-2: South. McCain +1.2, white-hispanic-native 40-52-5.

NM-3: North. Obama +25.1, white-hispanic-native 38-38-23.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #36 on: September 15, 2020, 09:18:14 PM »


Nevada, 3 districts

NV-1: Not Las Vegas. McCain +1.9, white-hispanic-asian 70-19-5. Actually includes some outer suburbs of Las Vegas, along with almost all of the state's land area.

NV-2: North Las Vegas. Obama +22.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 43-31-15-8.

NV-3: South Las Vegas. Obama +20.1, white-hispanic-black-asian 50-26-10-14.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #37 on: September 15, 2020, 09:26:54 PM »
New York, 30 districts

NY-01: East and Central Suffolk. Obama +5.6, white-hispanic-black 78-13-6.



NY-02: West Suffolk. Obama +4.2, white-hispanic-black 68-19-9.

NY-03: East Nassau and last of Suffolk. Obama +0.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 76-11-6-8.

NY-04: Southwest Nassau. Obama +27.8 (64-36), white-hispanic-black-asian 46-23-29-5.

NY-05: Northwest Nassau, Northeast Queens. Obama +15.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 47-13-6-34.

NY-06 South Queens. Obama +85.5 (93-7), white-hispanic-black-asian 6-17-59-18.

NY-07: South NYC. McCain +12.5, white-hispanic-black-asian 68-12-5-15.

NY-08: Central East Brooklyn. Obama +92 (96-4), white-hispanic-black 5-11-87.

NY-09: Central West Queens, Obama +44.3 (72-27), white-hispanic-black-asian 31-40-6-24.

NY-10: Queens/Brooklyn borderlands (I am so awful at NYC names), Obama +85 (92-7), white-hispanic-black-asian 10-38-48-5.

NY-11: Maritime NYC. Obama +71.1 (85-14), white-hispanic-black-asian 31-26-24-22.

NY-12: Hipster NYC? Obama +74.4 (87-12), white-hispanic-black-asian 52-24-15-12.

NY-13: Downtown. Obama +66.8 (83-16), white-hispanic-black-asian 69-10-6-15.

NY-14: Upper Sides, Obama +63.4 (81-18), white-hispanic-black-asian 75-11-7-9.

NY-15: Greater Harlem, Obama +92.1 (96-4), white-hispanic-black 10-47-46.

NY-16: South Bronx. Obama +80.3 (90-10), white-hispanic-black 7-61-38.

NY-17: Northwest Bronx and Yonkers. Obama +69.6 (86-15), white-hispanic-black-asian 20-57-24-6.

NY-18: Last of NYC and southwest Westchester. Obama +50.5 (75-25), white-hispanic-black-asian 35-21-40-6.



NY-19: Rest of Westchester. Obama +14.7, white-hispanic-black-asian 72-17-6-5.

NY-20: Orange and Rockland Counties. Obama +5.3, white-hispanic-black-asian 67-17-13-5.

NY-21: Hudson Valley. Obama +12, white-hispanic-black 80-9-9.

NY-22: Albany metro. Obama +21.2, white-black-asian 80-11-5.

NY-23 Adirondacks and North Upstate. Obama +6.6, 92% white.

NY-24: Central Upstate. McCain +3.2, white-black 87-5.

NY-25: Syracuse and the lake. Obama +15.9, white-black 83-10.

NY-26: Finger Lakes. Obama +9.3, white-black 88-5.

NY-27: Rochester. Obama +26.7, white-hispanic-black 67-9-21.

NY-28: Niagara and suburbia. Obama +4.8, white-black 85-8.

NY-29: Buffalo and Lake Erie. Obama +30.6 (65-34), white-hispanic-black 71-7-20. Jamestown is also drawn in at the extreme south.

NY-30: Southwest Upstate. McCain +13.1, 93% white. Rural and conservative district.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #38 on: September 16, 2020, 08:34:35 PM »
Ohio, 18 districts

Because this was the first state I actually did (being my home state) I actually did not attempt to number these districts in any order unlike the other states.



OH-01: Summit County. Numbered because it's where I lived and live. Obama +16.1, white-black 80-15. Akron.

OH-02: Northwest Ohio. Obama +26.7 (63-36), white-hispanic-black 74-6-18. Toledo.

OH-03: Montgomery and Miami. Obama +0.9, white-black 76-19.

OH-04: Northeast Ohio. Obama +6.5, white-black 91-6. Warren and Mentor as primary cities.

OH-05: Mahoning Valley. Obama +12.8, white-black 87-9.

OH-06: Central East Ohio. Obama +0.2, white-black 91-6. Canton's the only reliable source of Democrats here.

OH-07: East Cleveland. Obama +54 (76-23), white-black 49-46.

OH-08: Southeast Ohio. McCain +4.9, 94% white.

OH-09: West Ohio. McCain +26.3, white-black 89-6.

OH-10: Cincinnati. Obama +8.9, white-black 64-31.

OH-11: Southwest Ohio and east Cincinnati. McCain +21.5 (60-39), white-black 89-7.

OH-12: Around Columbus. McCain +15.6, white-black 89-7. Suburbs and small older cities.

OH-13: North Columbus. Obama +13.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 69-5-20-6.

OH-14: South Columbus. Obama +31.5, white-hispanic-black 64-5-27.

OH-15: North Central Ohio. McCain +16.5, 92% white.

OH-16: West of Cleveland. Obama +4.4, 91% white. Mostly suburban.

OH-17: Cleveland. Obama +61.8 (80-19), white-hispanic-black 43-9-47.

OH-18: Central Erie. Obama +13.1, white-hispanic-black 84-7-8.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #39 on: September 16, 2020, 08:39:11 PM »
Oklahoma, 3 districts



OK-1: Northeast. McCain +29.6 (65-35), white-hispanic-black-native 67-8-8-17.

OK-2: OKC. McCain +22.6 (61-39), white-hispanic-black-native 65-12-13-7.

OK-3: Rest of Oklahoma. McCain +39.6 (70-30), white-hispanic-black-native 72-7-6-14.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #40 on: September 16, 2020, 08:44:30 PM »
Oregon, 6 districts





OR-1: Northwest. Obama +13, white-hispanic-asian 78-12-7. Hillsboro and Astoria.

OR-2: South and West Portland. Obama +52 (75-23), white-hispanic-asian 76-11-9.

OR-3: North and East Portland. Obama +50.7 (74-24), white-hispanic-black-asian 67-13-9-9. Includes the "conservative" suburb of Gresham.

OR-4: Central North Oregon. Obama +8, white-hispanic 77-16. Countryside of both conservative and liberal varieties, southeastern suburbs of Portland, and Salem city make this district dynamic.

OR-5: Eugene and Costal Oregon. Obama +15.3, white-hispanic 86-7.

OR-6: The Cascades. McCain +12.8, white-hispanic 83-11. Actually includes non-coastal southeast Oregon (Medford and other cities).
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #41 on: September 20, 2020, 12:06:35 AM »
Pennsylvania, 20 districts



PA-01: Philly Core. Obama +69.7 (85-15), white-hispanic-black-asian 36-27-31-8. Most diverse district statewide.

PA-02: Northwest Philly. Obama +92 (96-4), white-hispanic-black 14-5-81.

PA-03: West Philly. Obama +88.5 (94-6), white-black 18-74.

PA-04: Far North Philly and north inner suburbs. Obama +22.4 (61-38), white-hispanic-black-asian 73-8-12-8.

PA-05: South Philly and east Delaware County. Obama +28.8 (64-35), white-hispanic-black-asian 66-5-22-8.

PA-06: Inner Montgomery. Obama +24.2 (62-38), white-hispanic-black-asian 78-5-10-7.



PA-07: Western Delaware and most of Chester Counties. Obama +8.1, white-hispanic-black-asian 83-5-7-5.

PA-08: Philly Outer North suburbs. Obama +2.4, white-asian 89-5. High turnout.

PA-09: Reading-Allentown. Obama +23.1 (61-38), white-hispanic-black 68-22-10.

PA-10: Leigh Valley. Obama +2.9, white-hispanic-black 85-7-6.

PA-11: Northeast Penn. Obama 13.6, white-hispanic-black 89-5-5. Scranton.

PA-12: Lancaster. McCain +11, white-hispanic-black 87-7-5.

PA-13: Harrisburg. McCain +1.7, white-hispanic-black 78-7-12. Harrisburg just isn't urban enough to swing the district.

PA-14: North and Northeast Central Penn. McCain +13.4, 93% white.

PA-15. South Central Penn. McCain +22.7 (61-38), 93% white. Ebensburg is probably the least conservative small city.

PA-16: South Pittsburgh and points east. Obama +4.9, white-black 88-9.

PA-17: Pittsburgh. Obama +34.2 (67-33), white-black 71-23.

PA-18: Southwest Penn. Obama +1.5, white-black 90-7.

PA-19: West Central Penn. McCain +22.5, 96% white. Rural conservatives and suburban conservatives.

PA-20: Erie and Northwest Penn. Obama +6.6, white-black 91-6.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #42 on: September 20, 2020, 12:14:53 AM »


South Carolina, 5 districts

SC-1: Coast. McCain +15.5, white-hispanic-black 71-6-21.

SC-2: Lowlands. Obama +20.6 (60-39), white-black 46-48. Mostly rural but does grab part of Charleston.

SC-3: East-Columbia. Obama +21.7 (60-39), white-black 47-47.

SC-4: Central Uplands. McCain +21.2 (60-39), white-black 69-24.

SC-5: Further Uplands. McCain +27.6 (63-35), white-hispanic-black 74-6-18.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #43 on: September 20, 2020, 12:18:22 AM »


Tennessee, 7 districts

TN-1: Appalachian Northeast. McCain +34.4 (66-32), white-black 90-5.

TN-2: East. McCain +30.2 (64-34), white-black 86-9.

TN-3: Central-East. McCain +26.4 (62-36), white-hispanic-black 86-5-7.

TN-4: Nashville. Obama +21.8 (60-39), white-hispanic-black 57-10-29.

TN-5: Central-West. McCain +28.1 (63-35), white-black 84-10.

TN-6: West. McCain +3.3, white-black 55-38.

TN-7: Memphis. Obama +51.2 (75-24), white-hispanic-black 30-6-63.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #44 on: September 20, 2020, 12:24:02 AM »
Texas



Texas loses by far the most compared to our world; the double decker of a heavily Republican white population and a very low turnout hispanic Democratic population.

TX-01: East Texas. McCain +41.4, white-hispanic-black 70-13-16. A mess of small cities. Had 1.5 million people. Safe R.

TX-02: Outer Northeast DFTW. McCain +31.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 67-14-9-8. Population 1.3 million. Suburban, exurban, and small cities like Paris. Safe R.

TX-03: Outer Northwest DFTW. McCain +33.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 70-16-7-6. Safe R.

TX-04: West and North Dallas County. McCain +9.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 48-30-15-7. Will likely be competitive in the future. Likely R for 2008.

TX-05: Dallas City. Obama +38.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 21-52-22-5. Even Texas has urban Democratic seats. Safe D.

TX-06: Arlington and Fort Worth. Obama +16.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 34-36-24-6. Likely D.

TX-07: South and south of Dallas. Obama +8, white-hispanic-black 41-26-31. Waco united with the south parts of Dallas city. Pay no attention to the lawyer behind the curtain. Also Bryan in the furthest south. Tossup.

TX-08: Outer Tarrant County on south. McCain +35, white-hispanic-black 69-17-11. Fort Hood military brass vs. Fort Worth suburbanites. Safe R.

TX-09: Mostly northern Houston sub/exurbs with and College Station. McCain +20.6. Safe R.

TX-10: Galveston Bay Area, Sabine, and suburbia. McCain +30.6. Safe R.

TX-11: North and Northeast Houston. Obama +41.2, white-hispanic-black 16-52-29.

TX-12: South and Southeast Houston, small slice of the southwest. Obama +40, white-hispanic-black-asian 15-51-28-7. Safe D.

TX-13: West and Northwest Houston. McCain +7.4, white-hispanic-black-asian 40-38-13-10. Don't expect this one to stay Likely R forever.

TX-14: Sugar Land all the way to east Austin. Obama +3.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 37-32-19-12. Tossup/Lean R for now, will remain competitive.

TX-15: Austin. Obama +41.7, white-hispanic-black-asian 53-31-8-7. Reminder of very different districting practices in this world.

TX-16: Outer Austin. McCain +11.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 63-26-6-5. Likely R for now.

TX-17: Gulf to Rio. McCain +3.6, white-hispanic 30-65. Lean R, good seat for a hispanic Republican.

TX-18: Mouth of the Rio. Obama +35.8, white-hispanic 9-90. Safe D, goes to the King of the South Texas machine.

TX-19: San Antonio City. Obama +33.4, white-hispanic-black 16-74-9. Safe D.

TX-20: Outer San Antonio west to Uvalde. McCain +25.4, white-hispanic-black 53-38-6.

TX-21: Northwest and Central Texas. McCain +49.6, white-hispanic-black 64-29-6. Population 1.8 million. Safe R. A Texas sized district.

TX-22: West Texas. Obama +2, white-hispanic 23-72. Tug of War between El Paso and the greater Midland area. Republicans will want to run a hispanic here to defend this competitive seat.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #45 on: September 20, 2020, 12:28:01 AM »


Virginia, 12 districts

VA-01: Beltway. Obama +41.5 (70-29), white-hispanic-black-asian 61-15-14-11.

VA-02: Fairfax. Obama +24.4 (61-37), white-hispanic-black-asian 50-19-12-19.

VA-03: West Nova. Obama +13.3, white-hispanic-black-asian 59-12-10-19.

VA-04: Lower Potomac. Obama +2.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 60-14-2-6.

VA-05: Northwest Virginia. McCain +6.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 76-9-8-8.

VA-06: Jamestown and suburbia. Obama +0.8, white-hispanic-black 64-5-28.

VA-07: Richmond. Obama +10.2, white-hispanic-black 59-7-30.

VA-08: Hampton Roads. Obama +37.9 (69-31), white-hispanic-black 44-5-48.

VA-09: Virginia Beach. Obama +1.2, white-hispanic-black-asian 63-6-26-6.

VA-10: Tobacco country. Obama +3.4, white-black 59-37.

VA-11: Central West. McCain +2.6, white-black 75-19.

VA-12: Southwest. McCain +19.5, white-black 89-7.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #46 on: September 20, 2020, 01:04:41 AM »
Washington, 11 districts



WA-01: North Seattle. Obama +60.3 (79-19), white-hispanic-black-asian 76-6-5-13.

WA-02: Downtown Seattle. Obama +72.6 (86-13), white-hispanic-black-asian 60-7-12-20.

WA-03: South and East sides. Obama +31.2 (65-34), white-hispanic-black-asian 55-13-11-18.

WA-04: Outer Seattle. Obama +20.8, white-hispanic-asian 69-8-18.

WA-05: Everett and northern inner suburbs of Seattle. Obama +21.9, white-hispanic-asian 72-9-12.

WA-06: Olympia and outer Tacoma. Obama +8.3, white-hispanic-black-asian 75-8-6-8.

WA-07: Kitsap. Obama +18.8, white-hispanic-black-asian 72-8-9-8.

WA-08: Southwest Washington. Obama +13.9, white-hispanic-asian 82-8-5. A mixed bag of Vancouver, Longview, Aberdeen, and western Olympia - with plenty of rurals in between.

WA-09: Northwest Washington. Obama +17, white-hispanic 82-8. Less suburbia and more liberal exurbs and small cities, not to mention lots of water and forest.

WA-10: Central Washington. McCain +15.8, white-hispanic 70-24. Small cities and conservative mountain west communities.

WA-11: Eastern Washington. McCain +6.9, white-hispanic 80-12. Most of the population is from Spokane.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,626
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #47 on: September 20, 2020, 01:10:44 AM »
Last on the list...

Wisconsin, 10 districts.



Wisconsin is surprisingly polarized.

WI-01: Southeast Wisconsin. Obama +12.7, white-hispanic-black 80-11-8.

WI-02: Most of Milwaukee. Obama +17.1, white-hispanic-black 72-19-6.

WI-03: North and Northwest Milwaukee. Obama +53.1 (76-23), white-black 36-56.

WI-04: WOW. McCain +23.5 (61-38), 93% white. Only McCain district.

WI-05: Madison. Obama +50.7 (75-24), white-hispanic-black-asian 79-7-8-7.

WI-06: Southwest Wisconsin. Obama +23.7 (61-38), 94% white.

WI-07: Central Wisconsin, Lake Winnebago in the east. Obama +12.6, 91% white. Drawn to include Fond du Lac in the southeastern corner.

WI-08: Northeast Wisconsin. Obama +9.2, white-hispanic 87-5. Green Bay as the primary city, includes Sheboygan in the southeast corner.

WI-09: West Wisconsin. Obama +13.3, 93% white. Both Eau Claire and La Crosse.

WI-10: North Wisconsin. Obama +11.6, 93% white. Mostly rural and smaller cities.

Obama won these 9-1, but only 2 out of 9 are Safely D.
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