State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Carlos Curbelo is going to is probably likelier to lose!

ftfy

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This certainly doesn't look like good news for Curbelo, but it doesn't destroy his chances of pulling out a win.
Florida Democrats don't exactly have a great track record either...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This certainly doesn't look like good news for Curbelo, but it doesn't destroy his chances of pulling out a win.
Florida Democrats don't exactly have a great track record either...

A special election won’t cause Curbelo to do any worse or better in November, lol.

It's a sign the Cubanos might be shifting away from the GOP, but it's not definitive proof, and the race will be affected by multiple other factors.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This certainly doesn't look like good news for Curbelo, but it doesn't destroy his chances of pulling out a win.
Florida Democrats don't exactly have a great track record either...

A special election won’t cause Curbelo to do any worse or better in November, lol. It’s a symptom of the same thing: the environment

Why don't people realize that a ton of republicans are voting D? Just look at AZ-08, lol.

In 2006, Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, and Fred Upton all bucked the Democratic wave and won another term. Meanwhile Rick Santorum and Joe Hostetler were blown out by bigger margins than they should have been, on paper.
In a wave some especially strong incumbents will hold on their seats, while some incumbents get completely squashed, worse than you might expect, even taking into account the environment.
Curbelo better pray that his fate will be like that of Gerlach!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

Do we have any numbers on that one?

Democrats have very little of a chance here. This is essentially in the deep red uber-rural areas to the west of Houston.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Felder has every right to be a Democrat, period. We have free agency in this country.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Felder has every right to be a Democrat, period. We have free agency in this country.

Eh, there are legitimate reasons to strip some people of their Democratic Party affiliation, such as if a Republican blatantly switches to the Democratic Party just to worm their way into a safe Democratic seat, only to switch parties after and/or commit to caucusing with Republicans. If their intent is to bolster the GOP, they should be forced to run as a Republican, or anything other than a Democrat.

My only issue is how this would be enforced, which could lead to abuse. Though to be honest, I wasn't even aware they could do this in the first place, so if they actually can and it's not unconstitutional, then it doesn't seem ripe for abuse.

Well if Felder is ever going to be kicked out of the party, then by that same (extremely twisted) logic, the hundreds of thousands of Orthodox Jews who he represents should be kicked out also. He's representing them very well, and just like his constituents, he chooses to be affliated as a Democrat.
Legitimizing this would just make stupid, idiotic jfern-esque litmus tests easier to push in our political system, and that is an end result that is not A.O.K.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the problem is that once people like Felder can get kicked out for not being a team player, you've opened a Pandora Box. There's also the presumption underlying all this that he's a registered Democrat, and he was elected repeatedly as a Democrat, and thus he must automatically help Democrats. That's not how it's supposed to work. His constituents are perfectly fine with him helping Republicans. It's not the place of the Democratic Party to tell Senator Felder that even though he represents a heavily registered D district, and has been elected for three full terms as a Democrat on the ballot, that he has no place in the tent.

If party officials don't want him in office anymore, convince his constituents to change their minds, and then he can get primaried. Until then they can view him with scorn, and dislike him, and see him as a Democrat In Name Only (which would be very fair), but it doesn't change the fact Felder, and each and every one of his constituents, has a right to choose which party they want to be in. Naturally they want to be relevant in city and state politics; they'll take up Democratic registration and vote in Democratic primaries in order to exude influence. Who are we to judge?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A political party is perfectly fine to expel members who act against the interests of the wider party - the point of a political party is meant to be a machine to elect people who have broadly similar aims and goals.  Since Felder is sitting with the other party in the State Senate then the Democrats have a right to expel him since, as far as I am concerned, that is breaking rule number 1 of being a member of a political party.  He can still run as an Independent or as a Republican or whatever: it means that in the General Elections voters will actually have the opportunity to vote for a real alternative and that's a positive thing.

Felder has every right to be a Democrat, period. We have free agency in this country.

free agency also allows a group to remove people who they feel act contrary to the aims of said group.  I don't know about how but sitting with the opposing political party when your party has a majority strikes me as meeting that definition.

Of course you think that way - you are European. European norms are not in effect here in America, so while the people themselves have free agency to join the party, the party doesn't (or at least shouldn't) exactly have a right to expel them.
It's unusually ignorant of you to assume that European political parties operate on the same basis as American ones!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’d be willing to wager Andrew, re: Wisconsin specials. If Dems win both seats, you lock yourself out of your account/request a permanent-ban from the mods. If one or both lose, I do. That way Atlas can be rid of one of us forever!

This is a silly idea.
LimoLiberal, plz ignore this wager offer!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Felder will caucus with whoever is in the majority.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s not good riddance Felder will have the same position he always has had come next year lol just Dems guaranteed their majority will be one seat smaller with this stunt

It won't make it smaller since Felder caucuses with the GOP anyway.

No, when Dems pick up the senate in November he would’ve switched. It does make it smaller.

And no, he isn’t going to lose lol. I don’t think you know what a hot take is OneJ

So the Democrats lost the support of a craven opportunist with no principles other that personal and political profit. Devastating loss indeed.

Welcome to New York.