Washington, D.C. Megathread

[Nutmeg]

I'll offer some background here because I haven't seen any other discussions about this race. D.C. has more residents than either Vermont or Wyoming (as well as a higher growth rate than 49 of the states), so I figured this belonged on this board.

One-term incumbent Vince Gray is running for reelection, and although large majorities of voters say the city is headed in the right direction, ethical and legal issues from his 2010 campaign continue to harm Gray's (re)electability. The scandal of his 2010 election, combined with Gray's extremely late decision to seek reelection, prompted 4 sitting councilmembers to challenge him in the April 1 primary and another in the general election.

Those fellow Democrats are Ward 2 Councilmember Jack Evans (white; longest-serving Councilmember in history who largely is a shill for developers; represents downtown, Georgetown, DuPont, and other wealthy and mostly white areas), Ward 4 Councilwoman Muriel Bowser (black; represents largely affluent and largely black north-central D.C.), Ward 6 Councilman Tommy Wells (white; often the lone dissenting vote on legislation and arguably the most ethical member of a body where ethics have been a huge problem lately; represents a diverse ward in Capitol Hill and Southwest D.C.), and At-Large Councilman Vincent Orange (black; doesn't really have much of a base but was elected mostly because many other candidates split the vote). A few other random candidates each will earn a percent or two of the vote, further denying the eventual winner a mandate leading to the general election.

Bowser is the protege of former Mayor Adrian Fenty, whom Gray defeated in the 2010 primary. The Fenty-Gray matchup was extremely bitter and split largely along racial lines (whites for Fenty, blacks for Gray). Bowser would seem like a natural choice for the many Fenty voters who never have forgiven Gray (for example, despite the absence of an organized write-in campaign, nearly a quarter of all votes in the 2010 general election were from people presumably writing in Fenty). But Bowser's greatest weakness is that she's extremely cautious, slow to form opinions, and seems most interested in elections rather than governing, in sharp contrast to the abrasive, hyperactive Fenty.

Gray has received at most 28% support in each poll taken to date. The rest of the candidates were clustered together in the teens, but Bowser received the Washington Post's endorsement and seems to have some momentum, and on paper she should be Gray's strongest challenger. She's also the candidate with the most racially balanced support, which could be key in a city that is increasingly diverse.

My preferred candidate is Tommy Wells (I used to live in Ward 6 and became a huge fan of his independent streak and his prioritization of making the city more livable), and I recently begrudgingly changed my registration from No Party to Democratic to be able to vote for him in the primary (although I have changing my party registration back to No Party on my calendar the day after the primary). Unlike all the other candidates, he is refusing all corporate and PAC donations. Unfortunately, his principles are ensuring that his campaign is unable to compete monetarily.

Prediction: I expect Gray will win the primary with around 30% of the vote, and because it's a first past the post system, that's good enough.

However, unlike in most recent D.C. elections, that's not the end of the story. Waiting in the wings is independent at-large Councilman David Catania, who is a gay former Republican (he was first elected in 1997 and only became an independent in 2004). A recent poll showed him statistically tied with Gray in a general-election matchup. The Democratic primary has been a chaotic free-for-all so far, so Catania could benefit from the bloodshed as well as having a long general election campaign thanks to an extremely early primary this year (2010's primary was in September). Many of those who wouldn't vote for Gray in the primary likely won't in the general either, so Catania probably has a higher floor than Gray does, but Gray probably has a higher ceiling due to Catania's race, orientation, and past party affiliation.

[Nutmeg]

I would not think that DC would give Grey another term; but all the polls have him leading in the Democrat Primary. The union support he's getting doesn't hurt either.

Jack Evans is my man; seems like he would make a good mayor.

Also, here is the Marist poll conducted not too long ago:

http://media.nbcbayarea.com/documents/NBC4_WAMU_Washington+Informer_Marist+Poll+Annotated+Questionnaire_February.pdf

That's the tragedy of first past the post, that someone primary voters think by a margin of 63 to 31% does not deserve reelection is likely to win that election.

I had seen the mayoral results from that poll, but some of the other numbers are interesting - thanks for posting the link. Some things that stood out to me:

- President Obama's approval rating among registered voters is 87%.

- 75% think the city is headed in the right direction.

- Gray is the second choice of only 12% of likely primary voters (after Bowser and Evans). So only 40% of likely primary voters even consider Gray as one of their top two choices. Ouch.

- 39% of Democrats are aged 60 and older. (Young people here are extremely transient and unlikely to register to vote here. Evans' natural base would be all the young people who live in the new condos that he pushed excessive and unnecessary tax breaks to encourage developers to build, and yet those people aren't going to be voting.)

- Residents are 47% black, 39% white. That gap continues to shrink.

- The pollster clearly doesn't know D.C. very well based on the question asking where respondents live. D.C. is divided into 4 quadrants (NW, NE, SE, SW), but the assigning of the wards (1 through 8 ) to each quadrant is extremely wrong. Like, terribly wrong. Like, done by someone who didn't even bother to look at a map.

- 78% of primary voters are enthusiastic. I guess so - mayor is the biggest thing we really have here (cough taxation without representation cough)

- It's funny that Gray has a 56/36% job approval rating but an underwater 45/46% personal favorability rating. People think he's unethical but has done a good job for the city. I'd be in that camp.

- Bowser, Evans, and Wells all have similar approval ratings, at around 50/25%. 50% have an unfavorable opinion of Orange, even though he's a citywide elected official. He'll likely be primaried in 2016. Another failure of FPTP - unpopular losers like this keep winning when there's a free for all among tons of candidates.

- 41% of Democrats "definitely plan to vote against" Gray in the general election, with only 44% "definitely voting for" him then. Registered voters are split 42/42. Here comes D.C.'s first non-Democratic, first white, and first gay mayor?

- Only 15% of voters feel Gray did nothing wrong (unethical/illegal) in his 2010 campaign.

[Nutmeg]

Why don't you like Evans? He's one of the most solid people in DC.

If you're a developer who wants a cushy tax break, sure.

Agreed. That's basically my understanding of what Evans does.

I live in Ward 6 (Southwest).

Ah Southwest, what a quiet little place. I miss it sometimes (I lived at 6th and M SW in 2009 and 2010). Wells was campaigning in 2010 outside the Waterfront Metro station and won me over with his talk of alternate forms of transportation.

[Nutmeg]

The latest polling shows Bowser pulling ahead of Gray, 30 to 27, with Wells a distant third at 14. The prosecutor's dangling of an indictment against Gray seems to be doing him in, with large shifts in Gray's trustworthiness rating. Bowser has all the momentum; I now expect her to win.

Independent Catania would tie Gray in a general election 41 to 41, while Bowser would crush Catania 56 to 23. Mayor Bowser it is, then.

I'm personally sticking with Wells. My #1 issue is the continuance of the streetcar system up Georgia Avenue, which Gray and Wells both support, while Bowser doesn't really have opinions on anything. Despite my disdain for Gray's ethical problems, I think I actually prefer him, policy-wise, over Bowser.

[Nutmeg]

Bowser = Fenty II. I completely agree with you about Gray. He actually cares about the SE, which I doubt Bowser does. I thought Wells would get a boost considering he was the only candidate (besides Shallal, I guess) not to have an Uncle Earl. Oh well. Maybe Kojo Nnamdi '18.

I'm not so sure about the Bowser-Fenty comparison. Fenty was a person of ideas and action but with an abrasive personality. Bowser seems to me to be a person of no ideas and no action but with a winning personality (she once spontaneously danced with me at a parade ).

But I agree that it's strange that although the ethics issue is taking Gray down, Wells hasn't really benefitted from it at the same time. I suppose Evans' collapse in support can be attributed to his defense of Gray, though.

And I am completely on board with Kojo '18!

[Nutmeg]

the nerd in me is amazed and overjoyed at the fact that D.C. may in fact have a Mayor Bowser.

All of her signs/logos are green and yellow, too, which somehow makes it even better.

Yeah you're right in terms of personality. I guess I was going for her being fenty's (preferred I think) successor on the council and that he's endorsed her (along with the WaPo)

I still don't really understand it - she owes her entire political career to Fenty's endorsement first for Ward 4 and now for mayor, and yet she is nothing like him as far as I can tell. I have nothing against her, but I have no reason to support her, either. There's just not much going on there.

But now that I think about it, poll after poll shows that people are extremely satisfied/optimistic about the state of the city (and blacks even moreso than whites, much to my surprise), even despite the incumbent's alleged ethical problems. Maybe people just want an auto-pilot for mayor who will just keep current trends going. Bowser would be that empty suit who wouldn't rock the boat. (Can I come up with any other metaphors for her?)

[Nutmeg]

Also, 16-year incumbent Jim Graham got unseated by Brianne Nadeau. Good riddance to him. Is Weaver still running in the general election?

I'm a Ward 1 resident and strongly supported Nadeau. I'm shocked that she won, let alone by a 59-41% margin.

I don't know whether Weaver still will run. He was my first choice in the primary before he dropped out (I also voted for him in the 2010 special election for the at-large seat), but his main platform was unseating Graham. Now that Nadeau has won, what would Weaver's platform be? I haven't heard anything from him lately. I think he expected Nadeau to lose.

[Nutmeg]

Looks like Catania still is waging his independent challenge to Bowser in the general, leaving his at-large Council seat open.

Apparently Bryan Weaver is running for at-large now, but so is Yvette Alexander? Very weird. I don't think any ward-based councilmember has intentionally switched to at-large. She said she would rather work on city-wide issues rather than do constituent service requests. She got only 42% in her last primary in 2012, so she probably realized Ward 7 was done with her anyway in 2016.

Tommy Wells also is considering joining the at-large race, also as an independent. So looks like another big battle is shaping up there. I suppose a real question is whether 2 independents could finish first and second, bumping Anita Bonds from the Council. Probably not, if even Vincent Orange could hang onto his seat.

[Nutmeg]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

[Nutmeg]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

Yeah.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure if Bowser is better than Grey. She seems totally, well, as you said, clueless.

I think I've posted this before, probably in another thread, but the Grey vs .Bowser contest is one of dishonesty vs. mostly honesty but also mostly competence vs. mostly a lack of ideas. I think I actually might prefer Grey. He surrounded himself with dishonest people, but at the end of the day the city has been doing amazingly under his leadership. Bowser doesn't even know whether she supports, well, anything.

[Nutmeg]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

Yeah.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure if Bowser is better than Grey. She seems totally, well, as you said, clueless.

I think I've posted this before, probably in another thread, but the Grey vs .Bowser contest is one of dishonesty vs. mostly honesty but also mostly competence vs. mostly a lack of ideas. I think I actually might prefer Grey. He surrounded himself with dishonest people, but at the end of the day the city has been doing amazingly under his leadership. Bowser doesn't even know whether she supports, well, anything.

I hope that in 4 years, Grey can come back and challenge her in the Primary. He really knew how to run the city.

Assuming he's not in prison by then. I actually don't see him being able to make a comeback - he doesn't really have a natural base of support, unlike Marion Barry in Ward 8, that will stick with him through thick and thin.

That said, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Bowser is not renominated in 2018. That would be three mayors in a row to get primaried.

[Nutmeg]

Nutmeg, do you have any prediction on the at-large and AG races?

Short answer: no. Both races have tons of candidates. In both races, a white candidate has the most name recognition from previous runs for citywide office as a Democrat, but in a city where race still plays a large role in politics, that might not mean as much as the candidates' appearances do.

Incumbent Anita Bonds (D) will win one of the 2 at-large seats, but as for the other seat, I don't think any candidates really stand out at this point. But I am willing to bet it will be an independent, not the Republican, Statehood Green, or Libertarian, who wins the other seat. "Independents" Robert White and Alissa Silverman would be my guesses for the 2 candidates most likely to win.

AG I would have said was in the bag for Paul Zukerburg because he was the only candidate running for a long time. Zukerberg singlehandedly pursued lawsuits to compel the Council to follow the will of voters in establishing the elected position. He has my support for that reason alone, but there now are 5 candidates. None has as much name recognition as Zukerburg, I don't think, but I still suspect one of the 3 black candidates will win in the end, perhaps Edward "Smitty" Smith.

What do you think?

[Nutmeg]

I'd agree with you about Robert White and Elissa Silverman. White probably has the edge, and I'm assuming he'll get most of the establishment support. For AG, my best guess would be Karl Racine. If I lived in the district, I'd vote for Zukerburg, but I'd be surprised if he won.

Oh yeah, I should know her name. I talked to her one-on-one at length at a candidate forum during the at-large special election last year. Was conflicted as to whether I should vote for her or Matt Frumin. I only went for Frumin when Silverman publicly requested that he drop out. (She was right, game theory-wise, but the way she went about it rubbed me, and lots of other people, the wrong way. The correct way to do it was what we witnessed in this year's Ward 1 primary, when Bryan Weaver agreed to run as an independent in the general and let Brianne Nadeau take on Jim Graham in a fair fight in the primary.)

Interesting. Why do you say Racine? I don't doubt that any candidate has the ability to win, but they're pretty much all unknown quantities to the electorate (at this point).

[Nutmeg]

I'd agree with you about Robert White and Elissa Silverman. White probably has the edge, and I'm assuming he'll get most of the establishment support. For AG, my best guess would be Karl Racine. If I lived in the district, I'd vote for Zukerburg, but I'd be surprised if he won.

Oh yeah, I should know her name. I talked to her one-on-one at length at a candidate forum during the at-large special election last year. Was conflicted as to whether I should vote for her or Matt Frumin. I only went for Frumin when Silverman publicly requested that he drop out. (She was right, game theory-wise, but the way she went about it rubbed me, and lots of other people, the wrong way. The correct way to do it was what we witnessed in this year's Ward 1 primary, when Bryan Weaver agreed to run as an independent in the general and let Brianne Nadeau take on Jim Graham in a fair fight in the primary.)

Interesting. Why do you say Racine? I don't doubt that any candidate has the ability to win, but they're pretty much all unknown quantities to the electorate (at this point).

I don't have any deeper analysis than he just seems to have ties to some prominent people and is fairly experienced. I don't think any candidates have turned in signatures yet, so I guess it's kind of premature to actually assume anything about the race. He does have the problem of being Harry Thomas Jr.'s lawyer, although that could easily be a non-issue.

Oh wow. That sounds like a real deal-breaker. D.C. voters are showing they have no patience for even a whiff of corruption.

Grey got thrown out solely because of his corruption issues even as the vast majority of residents feel the city is headed in the right direction. In other words, they chose honest inexperience/lack of ideas over dishonest experience/proven ideas. As-yet unproven allegations against Jim Graham delivered him an embarrassing 60-40 loss.

I really don't see that same electorate choosing someone affiliated with a former councilmember who now is in prison. Everyone has a right to a fair trial, but those are terrible optics. Most of this city, I'd wager, would want Thomas locked away and the key thrown away for stealing our tax dollars.

[Nutmeg]

Prediction

Bowser (D): 54%
Catania (I): 38%

At-Large:
Bonds and Silverman

What are yours?

That sounds about right, except I might be tempted to say White rather than Silverman.

[Nutmeg]

Prediction

Bowser (D): 54%
Catania (I): 38%

At-Large:
Bonds and Silverman

What are yours?

That sounds about right, except I might be tempted to say White rather than Silverman.

Interesting. Kenyan McDuffie's endorsement of White, I thought, would ultimately hurt Bonds, siphoning away some reliable Democrats in Ward 5 who might not have considered Silverman anyway.

I hadn't even realized McDuffie had endorsed White (like Vega, I haven't been paying much attention to at-large and have no idea who I'm voting for for even one slot, much less two, other than anyone but Bonds). That would help him in Ward 5, of course. But it also really sheds light on this fake "independent" shenanigans candidates keep pulling. When a Democratic incumbent endorses you, chances are you're a Democrat in everything but name (Independent In Name Only?).

However, I don't see why this would hurt Bonds. All voters get to vote for two candidates in this race. At least one non-Democrat has to win. So it would hurt Silverman (and other non-Democrats), but not the Democrat.

Assuming White and Silverman are the top 2 non-Democrats in this race, I suspect Silverman would win in Wards 1, 2, 3, and 6, and White in 4, 5, 7, and 8. That should be enough for White to win given past turnout.

[Nutmeg]

It's DC. Catania only had a a chance against the scandal-tarred Grey, and he lost. Solid Bowser

A recent poll conducted by Catania's campaign showed a tied race with Carol Schwartz getting in the teens, for what little that's worth.

[Nutmeg]

Catania receives an interesting endorsement. From an email I received today:

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[Nutmeg]

That was unexpected. Doubt it'll actually help Catania, though.

Yeah, has anyone outside of Vermont even heard of Shumlin?

[Nutmeg]

Catania's campaign is claiming Bowser leads him by a margin of only 34 to 30 percent, saying only,

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[Nutmeg]

It's over, if it had ever even started in the first place.

Tell that to Gov. Abercrombie.

I mean, honestly, and I'm not being a concern troll here, it's a really mystifying decision to me from a political strategy perspective for Obama to have endorsed Bowser.

Agreed. I'm honestly pretty irritated. I love the man and continue to support him, but why is he meddling in local affairs? He hasn't done anything to aid the lack of representation we have here in the nation's capital, so I really am not inclined to listen to him on what's best for the city.

By endorsing Bowser, he's tying himself and, by extension, the national Democratic Party, to a candidate virtually certain, as mayor, to become a national (and in particular, Northern Virginia) embarrassment to the Democrats.

And yet I can't agree with you here. I am no Bowser fan, but she's far from embarrassing. She's basically a stereotype of a politician ("I support all policies that are good for all people" kind of platitudes). But she's professional, pretty honest, and basically just a robot. So I'm really not sure what you mean here.

But yeah, Catania isn't that bad. Obama of course isn't going to break ranks with about 90% of the Democratic Party and back someone else, though.

Nowhere 90% of D.C. Democrats are going to vote for Bowser. I'd be surprised if she breaks 50%.

[Nutmeg]

Nowhere 90% of D.C. Democrats are going to vote for Bowser. I'd be surprised if she breaks 50%.

I mean 90%, if not more, of the establishment Democratic party. Not the voters. Probably should have made that clearer.

Ah, gotcha. Sure, in terms of the local party leadership. And a corrupt lot at that.

[Nutmeg]

My earlier prediction, that Anita Bonds (D) would keep her at-large seat and Elissa Silverman (I) and Robert White (I) would be the contenders for the other at-large seat, is supported by a poll Silverman discussed at a campaign event of hers I attended last week. She said her(?) poll showed Bonds in first place with something like 25%, her in second in the high teens or so, and White in third in the low teens, or something like that.

[Nutmeg]

My earlier prediction, that Anita Bonds (D) would keep her at-large seat and Elissa Silverman (I) and Robert White (I) would be the contenders for the other at-large seat, is supported by a poll Silverman discussed at a campaign event of hers I attended last week. She said her(?) poll showed Bonds in first place with something like 25%, her in second in the high teens or so, and White in third in the low teens, or something like that.

Is there any reason for the lack of polls in DC council races? Or is it just that I don't see them?

I think it's because most of the polls are conducted by the campaigns and never actually released publicly. Or rather they're press releases/talking points masquerading as polls.

[Nutmeg]

Polls have shown Bowser's lead over Catania steadily in the mid to high single digits. I expect that's where things will end up on election day, too.

I agree with you on the geographic distribution of the candidates' support; I suspect Bowser will win wards 4, 5, 7, and 8, while Catania will win 1, 2, 3, and 6.