CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Democrats look likely to sweep all countywide  races up tonight in Shelby County. Republicans previously held all but assessor of public property.

https://electioncommission.shelbycountytn.gov/ElectionResults/index.xhtml

[Gass3268]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps. 

This

[DrScholl]

A heavily contested gubernatorial Republican primary vs. an noncompetitive Democratic one played a part here. The Democratic base has dipped enough where the numbers are going to be relatively low without a strongly contested primary. On the other hand, Democrats managed to sweep local offices in Shelby County here Republicans have dominated (at the local level that is) so there could be some enthusiasm waiting to break through in November.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Fun night- I wasn't active here because I spent the evening at two election parties.  First, I went to Mark Green's, who was running unopposed for the nomination in TN-7.  It was at the Marriott in Franklin and was co-sponsored by the Williamson County Republican Party.  It was an uncontested primary in a Safe R race, but I still got to meet him and see a bunch of people I hadn't seen in a while.  Then, on a whim, I drove across Franklin to get to Bill Lee's party in time to see his speech.  He seems about as genuine of a politician as you see.  Also, to the surprise of me and most in the room, just as we were about to head out, Marsha Blackburn, who had made it to Franklin from her rally in Clarksville, got on stage for a minute.  I'm really excited about this Republican ticket here in Tennessee, and I think we will do great things.

[Badger]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps. 

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

[Tender Branson]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps.  

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

They are just a bit more enthused than in 2010 and 2014, but not nearly as enthused as in 2006 - and even then it wasn't enough to win the Senate ...

Bottom line: many Republicans need to stay home in November and Indys need to turn out massively for Bredesen and Dean to win.

[Cuca_Beludo]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps. 

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

No sheit? I thought Rs were far more enthused in this incredible environment.

[Badger]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps.  

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

They are just a bit more enthused than in 2010 and 2014, but not nearly as enthused as in 2006 - and even then it wasn't enough to win the Senate ...

Bottom line: many Republicans need to stay home in November and Indys need to turn out massively for Bredesen and Dean to win.

In Austria I suppose a full 50 plus percent increase is considered "just a bit more". So what I thought was simple nonsense is obviously just a cultural barrier.

[Tender Branson]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps.  

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

They are just a bit more enthused than in 2010 and 2014, but not nearly as enthused as in 2006 - and even then it wasn't enough to win the Senate ...

Bottom line: many Republicans need to stay home in November and Indys need to turn out massively for Bredesen and Dean to win.

In Austria I suppose a full 50 plus percent increase is considered "just a bit more". So what I thought was simple nonsense is obviously just a cultural barrier.

Don't get nasty ...

I can do the math for you (because you seem to have the same math skills as Trump):

If you have 10 Republican bananas from 2014 and increase them by 15% ... you get 11 and a half bananas.

If you have 4 Democratic bananas from 2014 and increase them by 50% ... you get 6 bananas.

Republican bananas made up 71% of all bananas in 2014.

Republican bananas made up 66% of all bananas in 2018.

So, the 50% increase for Democrats is only relative.

[Cuca_Beludo]

My last post about this election.

A republican increase of 15% compared to their wave year in '14 is a good thing. Yes, the Dems increased 50% but it's normal in a "D wave" year.

Look, there are polls showing Bredensen ahead/tied and Karl Dean down by only 5-10 points if I remember correctly.

These results are good results if you look at the polls.

Again: only a good sign. General election is a different story.

[Badger]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps.  

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.

Oh good God....

NO ONE, including the author of that tweet, even implied that Bredsen is a lock based on these numbers. Merely that, as simple math will show, Democrats are far more enthused this year. Get it?

They are just a bit more enthused than in 2010 and 2014, but not nearly as enthused as in 2006 - and even then it wasn't enough to win the Senate ...

Bottom line: many Republicans need to stay home in November and Indys need to turn out massively for Bredesen and Dean to win.

In Austria I suppose a full 50 plus percent increase is considered "just a bit more". So what I thought was simple nonsense is obviously just a cultural barrier.

Don't get nasty ...

I can do the math for you (because you seem to have the same math skills as Trump):

If you have 10 Republican bananas from 2014 and increase them by 15% ... you get 11 and a half bananas.

If you have 4 Democratic bananas from 2014 and increase them by 50% ... you get 6 bananas.

Republican bananas made up 71% of all bananas in 2014.

Republican bananas made up 66% of all bananas in 2018.

So, the 50% increase for Democrats is only relative.

Of course it's "relative". Any measurement of growth is "relative", genius.

So you know what you can do with your bananas.

[IceSpear]

What's up with Shelby County? Despite having "100% in" the victor has flipped three times, from Boyd to Lee to Black.

[Badger]

My last post about this election.

A republican increase of 15% compared to their wave year in '14 is a good thing. Yes, the Dems increased 50% but it's normal in a "D wave" year.

Look, there are polls showing Bredensen ahead/tied and Karl Dean down by only 5-10 points if I remember correctly.

These results are good results if you look at the polls.

Again: only a good sign. General election is a different story.

My last post on this thread will be skipped in lieu of me banging my head on the keyboard.

[Tender Branson]

What's up with Shelby County? Despite having "100% in" the victor has flipped three times, from Boyd to Lee to Black.

Obviously Russian hackers.

[IceSpear]

Anyway yeah, Bredesen and Dean will probably lose, but most people already knew that. The key is that Dems are going to massively improve here (and mostly everywhere.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I enjoyed watching Diane Black's entire political career die tonight. I'll sleep well!

[Badger]

Anyway yeah, Bredesen and Dean will probably lose, but most people already knew that. The key is that Dems are going to massively improve here (and mostly everywhere.)

THANK you!

Nice to see someone here who isn't a complete idiot at interpreting statistics.

[DrScholl]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

That, and the fact she seems to be embarrassed to actually be a woman.

[Doimper]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

That, and the fact she seems to be embarrassed to actually be a woman.

Isn't she the one that always insisted on being called "Congressman"? Guess she won't have to worry about that anymore.

[IceSpear]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

That, and the fact she seems to be embarrassed to actually be a woman.

Isn't she the one that always insisted on being called "Congressman"? Guess she won't have to worry about that anymore.

I thought that was Motormouth Marsha.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

That, and the fact she seems to be embarrassed to actually be a woman.

Isn't she the one that always insisted on being called "Congressman"? Guess she won't have to worry about that anymore.

She and Blackburn both did that.  I voted for Bill Lee, but I have met Diane Black on multiple occasions, and I believe your characterization of her is inaccurate.  She and her husband are both truly passionate about their values and got into politics to serve what they believe in.  She would have made an excellent governor as well.

[Mr. Smith]

Anyway yeah, Bredesen and Dean will probably lose, but most people already knew that. The key is that Dems are going to massively improve here (and mostly everywhere.)

Wouldn't count them out yet. Especially not Bredesen.

It'd be like counting out Mark Kirk or that guy that Pat Quinn barely defeated in 2010 at this point.

[Beet]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

That, and the fact she seems to be embarrassed to actually be a woman.

Isn't she the one that always insisted on being called "Congressman"? Guess she won't have to worry about that anymore.

She and Blackburn both did that.  I voted for Bill Lee, but I have met Diane Black on multiple occasions, and I believe your characterization of her is inaccurate.  She and her husband are both truly passionate about their values and got into politics to serve what they believe in.  She would have made an excellent governor as well.

Yeah, Diane Black seems like a great person, but having Lee on the ticket gives me more confidence in the Republican odds of keeping Tennessee red. The Dems are sorely disappointed they won't be able to Moore her.

[DrScholl]

I never cared for Diane Black either. She seems some rich person who got into politics out of lack of anything better to do.

That, and the fact she seems to be embarrassed to actually be a woman.

Isn't she the one that always insisted on being called "Congressman"? Guess she won't have to worry about that anymore.

She and Blackburn both did that.  I voted for Bill Lee, but I have met Diane Black on multiple occasions, and I believe your characterization of her is inaccurate.  She and her husband are both truly passionate about their values and got into politics to serve what they believe in.  She would have made an excellent governor as well.

I hate to tell you this, but politicians can be remarkably fake. People who want to be in office just for the title are quite clever at covering it.