CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[kyc0705]

I'm rooting for Basil Marceaux. He represents the average Tennessee Republican far better than any of these elitist politicians do.

https://youtu.be/1hvaeHllwtw

He kind of reminds me of a Tennessee Don Blankenship. Or is Don Blankenship a West Virginia Basil Marceaux?

Did Don Blankenship deliver the Christmas bop of the century? https://youtu.be/5hcVleGxx40

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 6
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
John Rose
39,287   42.1%   
Bob Corlew
29,609   31.7   
Judd Matheny
13,753   14.7   
Lavern Vivio
8,032   8.6   
Christopher Monday
2,617   2.8   
93,298 votes, 78% reporting (204 of 263 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

U.S. House District 4

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Mariah Phillips
13,823   48.7%   
Christopher Hale
9,887   34.8   
Steven Reynolds
4,698   16.5   
28,408 votes, 80% reporting (193 of 240 precincts)

[Cuca_Beludo]

TN Turnout 2014/2018

2014 Primary:

R Senate - 668k  
R Governor - 651k

D Senate - 240k
D Governor - 228k


2018 Primary: 79%in

R Senate - 624k
R Governor - 678k

D Senate - 268k
D Governor - 263k

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

U.S. House District 9

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Steve Cohen*
51,531   91.1%   
Kasandra Smith
3,513   6.2   
Isaac Richmond
1,500   2.7   
56,544 votes, 100% reporting (129 of 129 precincts)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Now that we finally have Memphis in, we can update the Amazing Senate Primary Turnout Map. Republicans captured an impressive 67% of the vote tonight. We'll see if that means anything for November:

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1025208222205009921

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Looks like I was completely wrong when I said John Wolfe was likely to perform well in Haywood County.

[Gass3268]

About 8% of Republican voters in the Gubernatorial primary did not vote in the Senate race.

[wesmoorenerd]

Only two major races yet to be called: TN-05 GOP and TN-08 Dem. Both are primaries on the wrong side of a safe seat, so it's pretty safe to call it a night.

[Cuca_Beludo]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991714234483421184

[Alabama_Indy10]

Looks like I was completely wrong when I said John Wolfe was likely to perform well in Haywood County.

Why on Earth did you think that would happen?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 5
Republican Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Jody Ball
18,460   55.9%   
Glen Dean
14,585   44.1   
33,045 votes, 96% reporting (178 of 185 precincts)

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991714234483421184

Well, if Manny Pacquaio can serve in the Philippine Senate, then we can have a WWE wrestler serve as Knox County Mayor.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1025214502210613251

[Tender Branson]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

[Badger]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

[Tender Branson]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

You do not understand what I am talking about.

Comparisons with the 2010 and 2014 primaries are meaningless, because those were really good for Republicans as well.

We need to compare it with the more competetive 2002 and 2006 primaries.

The primary results yesterday are much better for Republicans than those in 2002 and 2006 and more in line with those in 2010 and 2014, which produced strong GOP results in the general election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

APPARENT WINNER:

U.S. House District 8

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Erika Pearson
16,826   50.2%   
John Boatner
16,695   49.8   
33,521 votes, 100% reporting (247 of 247 precincts)

That wraps up tonight's primaries.

[Maxwell]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

You do not understand what I am talking about.

Comparisons with the 2010 and 2014 primaries are meaningless, because those were really good for Republicans as well.

We need to compare it with the more competetive 2002 and 2006 primaries.

The primary results yesterday are much better for Republicans than those in 2002 and 2006 and more in line with those in 2010 and 2014, which produced strong GOP results in the general election.

going all the way back to 12 and 16 years ago respectively to compare primary results is... interesting and ignores the massive shifts that have been happening in the state. Not that I disagree with any analysis that says Bredesen and Dean's chances are probably overhyped but idk Democrats just being able to roll back what has essentially been complete GOP domination is probably not going to happen. The ground shifted completely and it even going back a little bit is not a bad sign for Dems.

[Badger]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

You do not understand what I am talking about.

Comparisons with the 2010 and 2014 primaries are meaningless, because those were really good for Republicans as well.

We need to compare it with the more competetive 2002 and 2006 primaries.

The primary results yesterday are much better for Republicans than those in 2002 and 2006 and more in line with those in 2010 and 2014, which produced strong GOP results in the general election.

So, comparing good years for Republicans to 2018 isn't helpful in analyzing whether it may be a good year for Democrats?

Got it. Hot take of the night, Tender.

[Cuca_Beludo]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually doing better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say that the results tonight are good news for Rs.

[Badger]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps. 

[Tender Branson]

Well, you shouldn't read too much into primary numbers ... but those numbers are really good for Republicans:

In the competetive 2002 and 2006 elections for Senate and Governor (2002, not 2006), primary turnout was about equal. And now it is 2/3 Republican.

In the 2006 Governor election, Bredesen got wayyyy more votes in the primary than his Republican opponents and wayyyy more votes than he did this time.

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

You do not understand what I am talking about.

Comparisons with the 2010 and 2014 primaries are meaningless, because those were really good for Republicans as well.

We need to compare it with the more competetive 2002 and 2006 primaries.

The primary results yesterday are much better for Republicans than those in 2002 and 2006 and more in line with those in 2010 and 2014, which produced strong GOP results in the general election.

going all the way back to 12 and 16 years ago respectively to compare primary results is... interesting and ignores the massive shifts that have been happening in the state. Not that I disagree with any analysis that says Bredesen and Dean's chances are probably overhyped but idk Democrats just being able to roll back what has essentially been complete GOP domination is probably not going to happen. The ground shifted completely and it even going back a little bit is not a bad sign for Dems.

If you go from 70%+ GOP primaries in 2010 and 2014 to just 67% GOP primaries now, it's definitely no good sign for Democrats ... even if they made up some ground.

Many people might have forgotten about Bredesen's time in office and are not all too enthusiastic about voting for him this time.

Either that, or many GOP voters will stay home in November and Independents will bail out the Democrats too, creating a close race.

But judging from the primary results and trends from past primaries, Democrats shouldn't be too excited about November ...

[Tender Branson]

Did you fail to read the post directly above yours?

What you mean? Are you saying he's wrong because Dem turnout is 51% up and Rep turnout is "only" 15% up?

Rs are actually better than four years ago, a R wave year.

Obviously the general election is a different story, but at least we can say the results tonight are good news for Rs.

Yes, having your opposing party's turnout rate increase by more than triple your own, is the quintessential definition of "good news".

Carry on, chaps. 

If Rs already have 70% of the primary vote and increase by another 15%, it doesn't matter if the Dems increase their 30% share by 50% ...

Rs are still massively favoured and have a huge enthusiasm advantage.