2013 Elections in Germany

[buritobr]

1972
SPD = 45,8%

2009
SPD+Linke+Grunen = 45,6%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

- Linke and Piraten will almost surely fall below the 5% hurdle, so it might be better anyway to vote Grüne and/or SPD (last time I splitted my votes between SPD and Grüne, which in Bavaria means real proportional vote splitting, differently from the federal case)

"Die Linke" will almost certainly be represented in the Bundestag after the coming election for two reasons. Firstly, they have their loyal voters in the east. Secondly, they could benefit from a special electoral law: A party is excepted from the 5 per cent hurdle if it wins at least three direct mandates. In German federal elections, you have two votes: The first vote is for an individual candidate who runs in your constituency and the second vote is for a party list. The seats that are won with first votes are known as "direct mandates" (Direktmandate) and the seats that are won with second votes are known as "list mandates" (Listenmandate). There are two constituencies in the east of Berlin that are safe seats for "Die Linke": Lichtenberg and Marzahn-Hellersdorf. "Die Linke" and their predecessor party PDS have held the direct mandates of these two constituencies since the 1990 election. Treptow-Köpenick, another constituency in the east of Berlin, used to be held by the SPD until the 2005 election. Gregor Gysi, one of the best known and most popular politicians of "Die Linke", won the Treptow-Köpenick seat in 2005 and again in 2009. So "Die Linke" have a good chance of winning three direct mandates in this election. Interetingly, their predecessor party PDS has been the only party since the 1957 election that has benefited from that electoral law. In the 1994 election, they won 30 seats even though they only won 4.4 % of the federal vote. The PDS was excepted from the hurdle because they won four direct mandates. Unsurprisingly, they won all four of them in the east of Berlin.

Palandio is talking about the Bayern State Election, not the federal election.

Sorry, I overlooked that they meant the election in Bavaria. My bad! However, I think that these are interesting facts nonetheless.

Of course.
And welcome to the forum.

[Franknburger]

Two new polls, today, time for another "poll of polls". Covered are FORSA (14.8.), infratest dimap /15.8.), FG Wahlen (16.8.), EMNID (18.8.), INSA/TNS (20.8.) and GMS (20.8.). In brackets my previous "poll of polls" from two weeks ago (I missed to do one for last week):

CDU:        40.3 (40.3)
SPD:        24.8 (24.8 )
Grüne:     12.8 (13.5)
Linke:        8.0  (7.5)
FDP:          5.3  (5.0)
Pirates       3.2  (2.8 )
AfD            2.0 (2.3)
Others       3.6  (3.8 )

Time for another "poll of polls", covering Allensbach (21.8.), FORSA (28.8.), infratest dimap  (29.8.), FG Wahlen (29.8.), EMNID (25.8.), INSA/TNS (26.8.):

CDU:        40.2 (40.3)
SPD:        24.8 (24.8 )
Grüne:     12.3 (12.8 )
Linke:        7.8  (8.0)
FDP:          5.7  (5.3)
Pirates       2.5  (3.2 )
AfD            3.0  (2.0)
Others       3.8  (3.6)

Bavaria, BW and NRW, i.e. Germany's three largest states comprising more than half of the total population, still have school holidays. NRW holidays will end coming Wednesday, and BW next weekend. Nevertheless, car-makers summer closures are over, which may be a reason for yesterday's two polls both recording a SPD uptick (infratest +2, FG Wahlen +1).  Grüne continue to lose in the West, maybe for the same reason, while Linke decline in the East, where school holidays finished last weekend.
AfD appears to benefit from the recent discussion about the eventual need for another support package for Greece.
We are now getting into college student travelling season (jobbing during the school holiday season coming to its end), which should make the Pirates', probably also the Green's polling less reliable.

[Franknburger]

Some details from last night's ZDF Politbarometer (FG Wahlen):

The election campaign so far has been boring:
Yes               57%
No                33%
Don't know    10%  (oh, is there an election campaign going on?)

Following the campaign
(rather) intensively      37%
hardly/not at all           62%

Vote abstention
definitely          7% (-4)
possibly          21% (+9)

Chancellor preference
Merkel            60% (-2)
Steinbrück      31% (+2)

Personal economic situation
Fine               58% (+3)
So, so            36% (-1)
Bad                 6% (-2)

Economic outlook
Positive          28% (+4)
Stable            52% (-2)
Negative        18% (-2)

In case Greece needs further financial assistance, they should ..
Get it            33%
Not get it       61%
Unsure            8%

Should the West strike on Syria?
Yes               33%
No                58%
Don't know      9%

In case the West strikes on Syria, should Germany participate financially and technically?
Yes               41%
No                55%
Don't know      4%

[Tender Branson]

Vote abstention
definitely          7% (-4)
possibly          21% (+9)

Points to ca. 70-75% turnout.

And is lower than here: Here, 80% say they will definitely vote, 10% maybe, 10% not.

[minionofmidas]

Per Steinbrück runs in Mettmann I (the elongated, blue constituency just east of 2009  reddish Cologne).

That's Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis. Mettmann I is the hourglass-shaped thing just north of Cologne/Leverkusen (middlish blue, darker than its eastern and western neighbors, on the wiki map).

[Tender Branson]

Has anyone tried the National-o-mat ?

http://neue-rheinpresse.de/politik/rechter-entscheidungshelfer-fuer-die-bundestagswahl-2013-der-national-o-mat-ist-da

Helping right-wingers find their ideal party ...

[Tender Branson]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[minionofmidas]

Has anyone tried the National-o-mat ?

http://neue-rheinpresse.de/politik/rechter-entscheidungshelfer-fuer-die-bundestagswahl-2013-der-national-o-mat-ist-da

Helping right-wingers find their ideal party ...

This. is. hilarious.

[Franknburger]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[ERvND]

AfD appears to benefit from the recent discussion about the eventual need for another support package for Greece.

There is a strange "undercurrent" on the German-speaking web right now, to the effect that the AfD is actually much stronger and has a good chance to enter the Bundestag.

Of course, this could easily be a distorted picture, and some AfD activists spamming news-sites can do much.

Then again, there is a rationale behind this prediction: In the last elections, the CDU has consistently received less votes than predicted. Usually, these votes went straight to the FDP. The AfD, however, might be a new alternative for conservative/liberal/right-wing voters who don't like Merkel.

Any thoughts?

[ZuWo]

AfD appears to benefit from the recent discussion about the eventual need for another support package for Greece.

There is a strange "undercurrent" on the German-speaking web right now, to the effect that the AfD is actually much stronger and has a good chance to enter the Bundestag.

Of course, this could easily be a distorted picture, and some AfD activists spamming news-sites can do much.

Then again, there is a rationale behind this prediction: In the last elections, the CDU has consistently received less votes than predicted. Usually, these votes went straight to the FDP. The AfD, however, might be a new alternative for conservative/liberal/right-wing voters who don't like Merkel.

Any thoughts?

There are Germans who don't like Merkel?

[minionofmidas]

The oldest candidate is 90 year old Imanuel Regehly, a former actor and Silesian refugees' functionary who's been running for the NPD off and on since 1976. He's on their Berlin state list once again. I could not find a picture.

The youngest candidate is 18 year old Vanessa Mariacher who is running for the fringe Bayernpartei (in, duh, Bavaria). She's also running for the state election the previous week.



(An apparently self-written portrait on the party's website consists of 'nanny-statism' cliches and the claim she's turning 18 right in time for the election, so it's conceivable she's 17 as of the time of this writing.)

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow is the Chancellor debate.

4 or 6 TV channels will show it live.

Ca. 15-20 Mio. Germans will watch (out of 80, and 65 of voting-age).

[minionofmidas]

4 or 6 TV channels will show it live.

5.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Merkel/Steinbrück TV debate on sunday will be followed up by a Brüderle (FDP)/Trittin (Greens)/Gysi (Left) debate on monday btw.

[minionofmidas]

Typical. Put the prime boredom on at primetime.

[minionofmidas]

Federal wahlomat is online.

http://www.bpb.de/politik/wahlen/wahl-o-mat/bundestagswahl-2013/

unweighted result
Left 81.6%
Greens 80.3%
Pirates 76.3%
SPD 64.5%
FDP 46.1%
NPD 43.4%
AfD 42.1%
CDU/CSU 39.5%

[Franknburger]

A new poll on an election that is a bit less clear in outcome than the Federal one - Hesse state, held together with the federal election (infratest dimap, 21.08., 2009 in brackets):

CDU         39 (37.2)
SPD         31 (23.7)
Grüne      14 (13.7)
FDP           5 (16.2)
Linke         4  (5.4)
Others       7  (3.7)

45 red-green vs. 44 black-yellow (though, if Linke makes it in, possibly another grand coalition).

The next poll for the Hessen state election is out (FG Wahlen for FAZ/FFH):


45 red-green vs. 44 black-yellow.

Some more findings (full articles, in German, can be found here and here):
60% are highly or quite interested in the election. 57% will orient on state issues, 37% on federal issues.

The by far most important state-level issue is education (28%), followed by unemployment (16%).  On education, 31% trust the SPD most, 23% the CDU, and 8% the Greens. As concerns pre-school day care institutions, 35% are discontent with current supply, 27% content, 38% don't have an opinion or don't regard the issue as relevant.

Politician scores (+5 to -5)
Tarek Al-Wazir (Greens)                   +0.9
Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel (SPD)        +0.7
PM Volker Bouffier (CDU)                  +0.5
Jörg-Uwe Hahn (FDP)                       - 0.4
Janine Wissler (Linke)                      - 0.7

The survey also covered the federal election vote (2009 Fed. election in first bracket) [margin vs. state-level polling in second bracket]:

CDU         40 (37.2)      [+2]
SPD         27 (23.7)      [ -3]
Grüne      14 (13.7)      [ -1]
FDP           6 (16.2)      [+1]
Linke         5  (5.4)       [+1]
AfD           3  (---)         

Others       5 (3.7)         

-----
Technical question: Should we have separate threads for the Hessen and Bavarian state elections, or stay with on big megathread? I personally am not too happy with the way our British friends are cluttering the sub-forum with threads for each local election, as other, especially non-European elections, get thrown off the first page. However, depending on the extent of mapping some of you may intend to do on Bavaria and Hessen, separate threads might make sense.

[Oak Hills]

Tomorrow is the Chancellor debate.

4 or 6 TV channels will show it live.

Ca. 15-20 Mio. Germans will watch (out of 80, and 65 of voting-age).

What time is it?

And where could be seen online from the United States?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tomorrow is the Chancellor debate.

4 or 6 TV channels will show it live.

Ca. 15-20 Mio. Germans will watch (out of 80, and 65 of voting-age).

What time is it?

And where could be seen online from the United States?

8:30 p.m. Central European Summer Time

Dunno, does ARD's livestream work where you live?

http://live.daserste.de/de/index.html#programm

(According to the information given to the site it should be accessible from abroad with a few exception like sports events.)

[ERvND]

Technical question: Should we have separate threads for the Hessen and Bavarian state elections, or stay with on big megathread?

I'm in favour of creating separate threads, especially one for the Hesse state election. It looks like this one will be the only exciting German election this year, but it will completely go down if it's pooled with the parallel federal election.

[Franknburger]

Tomorrow is the Chancellor debate.

4 or 6 TV channels will show it live.

Ca. 15-20 Mio. Germans will watch (out of 80, and 65 of voting-age).

What time is it?

And where could be seen online from the United States?

Other German TV networks that should offer live streams:
http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/hauptnavigation/live#/hauptnavigation/live
http://www.phoenix.de/content/phoenix/die_sendungen/ereignisse/734123
http://www.prosieben.de/tv-programm/#/channel_id/1/start_time/1378060200/show_id/event_1_31672203
http://www.rtl.de/cms/news/meine-wahl/news/angela-merkel-versus-peer-steinbrueck-das-tv-duell-als-letzte-chance-vor-der-wahl-30335-b9d0-16-1613435.html

The last two are commercial networks, which means you may get advertisement popups, javascript overkill and the like..

[minionofmidas]

A yearly thread is a tradition by now. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88097.0

But in 2009, we split off a separate federal "results" thread. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=102862.0

There is, of course, a major difference in that the federal election was the last election of the year, but I suggest we follow that. In which case maps and stuff for the state elections still go here.

[Tender Branson]

I think Hesse definitely needs a thread on its own.