2013 Elections in Germany

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So what parties are likely to switch leaders after the election? And who are the likely succesors?

Potential Merkel succesors have already been discussed in the thread but what about the other parties?

Daniel Bahr seems like a potential future FDP leader. Seems handsome and sympathetic from what I've read. Am I correct?   

[Tender Branson]

FDP ?



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Lindner

[Tender Branson]

For the SPD, I hope either Manuela Schwesig or Hannelore Kraft take over after the removal of the Steinbrück/Steinmeier/Gabriel trainwreck:



Maybe Schwesig as party leader and later Kraft as Chancellor candidate in 2017.

[minionofmidas]

What is this "leader" you speak of? German parties have chairpersons, and also prospective chancellors/state pms, and of course and parliamentary party chairs (although here 'leader' is more appropriate as a translation; but only if you keep in mind that he's not leading the party as a whole.)
As a result, these people are not replaced as a result of elections (unless some party chair-cum-state pm resigns his party office as a result of a particularly bad drubbing.)

[Tender Branson]

What is this "leader" you speak of? German parties have chairpersons, and also prospective chancellors/state pms, and of course and parliamentary party chairs (although here 'leader' is more appropriate as a translation; but only if you keep in mind that he's not leading the party as a whole.)
As a result, these people are not replaced as a result of elections (unless some party chair-cum-state pm resigns his party office as a result of a particularly bad drubbing.)

This is what I meant: If the SPD has a really bad result again, then there could be a leadership debate, like in 2009. And in this case, I would prefer the above candidates - because the Steinbrück/Steinmeier/Gabriel management seems to have lost the flavour.

If the SPD can get close to 30% on the other hand somehow, with CDU/CSU at 37/38% - things could be different. A debate about the chairperson might not be needed.

[ERvND]

As for the SPD, there are rumours that Gabriel is in danger, even though he managed the party quite well (in my opinion). He's hated by the public with a passion, though, again something I don't really understand.

A "natural" successor would be Hannelore Kraft. I hope, however, she'll be smart enough not to do it. Over the course of four years, she'd be slandered, libelled and dragged through the mud by the media, to a degree you can't conceive of. It's only "save" to come into the limelight as soon as Merkel announces her retreat, and her successor is not as popular.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Sigh... This place, always filled with nit pickers.

Fine! Who are the potential next top names of the parties? (Chancellor-candidates or what you want to call it, although its redicolous to think any of the minor three has a chance at the chancellorship)
And while we're on the topic, what is the reason Germany have the same system as America when it comes to this, and not the same system as the rest of Europe?

[minionofmidas]

What is this "leader" you speak of? German parties have chairpersons, and also prospective chancellors/state pms, and of course and parliamentary party chairs (although here 'leader' is more appropriate as a translation; but only if you keep in mind that he's not leading the party as a whole.)
As a result, these people are not replaced as a result of elections (unless some party chair-cum-state pm resigns his party office as a result of a particularly bad drubbing.)

This is what I meant: If the SPD has a really bad result again, then there could be a leadership debate, like in 2009.

But Steinbrück is not the party chair. He, of course, slinks to the sideline and is probably not heard much of again if the CDU-FDP government is reelected (while in a Grand Coalition we'll no doubt see him as Vice Chancellor no matter how underwhelming the result...) but the position of "chancellor candidate" doesn't need to be filled for several more years.

No kind of election result could be bad enough to force out Gabriel in the immediate aftermath (the next regular convention being a different matter) - he's not sufficiently personally responsible.

[minionofmidas]

And while we're on the topic, what is the reason Germany have the same system as America when it comes to this, and not the same system as the rest of Europe?

That can really only be answered by a wall of text or not at all. Though it's not, of course, the "same system as America". Think of it rather as the same system as France... sans Président.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And while we're on the topic, what is the reason Germany have the same system as America when it comes to this, and not the same system as the rest of Europe?

That can really only be answered by a wall of text or not at all. Though it's not, of course, the "same system as America". Think of it rather as the same system as France... sans Président.

I'm a law student. I eat walls of text for lunch.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Greens will most likely see some kind of leadership reshuffle. Mainly because party statutes only allow two of the six members of the party's executive committee to hold a seat in parliament and after this election, at least four and perhaps even five members of the current executive committee are going to hold parliamentary seats.

A change in the party statutes to accomodate this situation was already ruled out, so this means that the Greens will replace at least one, possibly both, of their party co-chairmen. Which also means that the current co-chairmen may want to become one of the parliamentary leaders of the party. Whether this succeeds also depends on the election result of the party...

[FredLindq]

Is Steeinbrucks  off pose some kind off bizarre joke?!

As see it there are either a CDU+FDP guvernment or CDU+SPD. But even if CDU and FDP gets a majority, might Merkel forme a Grand coalition du too the red-green majority in the Bundesrat?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is Steeinbrucks  off pose some kind off bizarre joke?!

Well, it was certainly not intended to be taken fully serious.

As see it there are either a CDU+FDP guvernment or CDU+SPD. But even if CDU and FDP gets a majority, might Merkel forme a Grand coalition du too the red-green majority in the Bundesrat?

This would be highly unusual and unlikely. And by that logic, Germany would probably be  governed by a Grand coalition most of the time, because any government - be at CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens - usually loses its majority in the Bundesrat sooner or later.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As see it there are either a CDU+FDP guvernment or CDU+SPD. But even if CDU and FDP gets a majority, might Merkel forme a Grand coalition du too the red-green majority in the Bundesrat?

This would be highly unusual and unlikely. And by that logic, Germany would probably be  governed by a Grand coalition most of the time, because any government - be at CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens - usually loses its majority in the Bundesrat sooner or later.

Sounds like how it works in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Today is the Bayern state election.

Bayern (Bavaria) is the 2nd biggest state in Germany in terms of population and has historically been a CSU-stronghold. In the last election, the CSU crashed from 61% to 43% and for the first time needed the FDP as coalition partner.

The current seat distribution in the state parliament:



2008 results:



2008 results (changes compared with 2003):



Historical state election results:

[minionofmidas]

As see it there are either a CDU+FDP guvernment or CDU+SPD. But even if CDU and FDP gets a majority, might Merkel forme a Grand coalition du too the red-green majority in the Bundesrat?

Government formation is not dependent on a Bundesrat majority, and governments have been without one most of the time - the only exceptions being May 64 (formation of CDU-FDP, ie exit of BHE, coalition in Baden-Württemberg) to October 69 (end of federal Grand Coalition), October 82 (formation of Kohl government) to April 91 (red-green replaces black-yellow in Hesse), October 98 (formation of Schröder government) to April 99 (black-yellow replaces red-green in Hesse), October 05 (formation of Merkel Grand Coalition) to February 09 (FDP joins CDU in government in... Hesse) and October 09 (formation of Merkel's CDU-CSU-FDP government) to July 10 (red-green replaces black-yellow in North Rhine Westphalia).

[Tender Branson]

Polls in Bayern close at 6pm local today.

There will be 1st projections right at this time on ARD, ZDF and BR.

First detailed projections (Hochrechnungen) probably after 15-30 minutes.

[minionofmidas]

And while we're on the topic, what is the reason Germany have the same system as America when it comes to this, and not the same system as the rest of Europe?

That can really only be answered by a wall of text or not at all. Though it's not, of course, the "same system as America". Think of it rather as the same system as France... sans Président.

I'm a law student. I eat walls of text for lunch.

BUT I'M NOT FEELING LIKE WRITING ONE ON SUCH A DULL SUBJECT.

It all comes down to historical development ("things are the way they are because they got that way") - the position of Empire chancellors as royal appointees rather than party leaders, the position of (most) Weimar chancellors as weak compromise candidates rather than party leaders - and federalism after 1945. Which kept the state leaders strong and the federal leaders, when in opposition, weak. Kurt Schumacher was a "leader" in the Westminster sense to the SPD after 45, but he died. Erich Ollenhauer was weaker, but still combined the three positions - until 1961 when the SPD tried a new face (Willy Brandt) for chancellor candidate. Then Ollenhauer died suddenly in 1963, and Brandt was not in the Bundestag (because, you know, West Berlin.) And the positions got split up. And that, at least as an option, has been the position ever since, and also for the CDU after it moved into opposition. 

[Tender Branson]

Why does the Bayern election site not offer maps for the "Gesamtstimme" (2nd vote), only for the "Erststimme" (first vote) ?

http://www.landtagswahl2013.bayern.de/taba0999.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mhm, AfD has been polled at 4% three times in a row now (Emnid, INSA, FGW). I wonder whether at least one poll will show them at 5% or above in the final week.

Psychologically, it would be very a important threshold which decides whether the party gets 3% or possibly up to 9% IMO. There's a common phenomenon in Germany that once people realize that their vote isn't wasted they start to jump aboard a new party in droves. We're closing in on that threshold now.

Of course, AfD entering the Bundestag would make a Grand coalition a certainty.

[Tender Branson]

According to some early reports until noon, turnout could be ca. 60% in Bayern today.

Mostly due to increased absentee voting.

[minionofmidas]

Why does the Bayern election site not offer maps for the "Gesamtstimme" (2nd vote), only for the "Erststimme" (first vote) ?

In order that Al has something to do. But as you can see if you scroll down, they'll be offering shaded Gesamt maps for the parties, just not a shaded leader map.


But Gesamtstimme is 1st and 2nd vote added. This is Bavaria. Their election law is special.

Not only are seats calculated from the sum of list and direct votes, there are also two separate ballot papers for direct and list. And the list is not a state but a Bezirk-wide list. And unlike almost everywhere else in Germany, the list is a free list - you vote for one candidate and simultaneously for the list he's on (and a fun extra detail: you cannot cast your list vote for your district's direct candidate. They are, if included on the district-wide list, omitted on the list ballot for their direct constituency. Sample.)

And there are Bezirk elections on the same day, using the same election law, and five referenda. These however are listed on a single ballot paper... but that still makes five sheets to fill in for every voter.

[Tender Branson]

Why does the Bayern election site not offer maps for the "Gesamtstimme" (2nd vote), only for the "Erststimme" (first vote) ?

In order that Al has something to do. But as you can see if you scroll down, they'll be offering shaded Gesamt maps for the parties, just not a shaded leader map.


But Gesamtstimme is 1st and 2nd vote added. This is Bavaria. Their election law is special.

Not only are seats calculated from the sum of list and direct votes, there are also two separate ballot papers for direct and list. And the list is not a state but a Bezirk-wide list. And unlike almost everywhere else in Germany, the list is a free list - you vote for one candidate and simultaneously for the list he's on (and a fun extra detail: you cannot cast your list vote for your district's direct candidate. They are, if included on the district-wide list, omitted on the list ballot for their direct constituency. Sample.)

And there are Bezirk elections on the same day, using the same election law, and five referenda. These however are listed on a single ballot paper... but that still makes five sheets to fill in for every voter.

No Al needed after all, I found an online map for Erst- & Gesamtstimme:

http://www.nordbayern.de/ressorts/schlagzeilenseite/landtagswahl-in-bayern-1.3133510?useWideModul=true&source=marginale

Click on "Stimmkreise".

[ERvND]

Just voted.

In my small rural community, the results will be something like
CSU: 58%
Greens: 16%
SPD: 8%
Free Voters: 7%
FDP: 4%
Others: 7%

This is how I feel voting SPD in this place:

[minionofmidas]

Whereabouts do you live?