2013 Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Both were below average. So who cares? The only good debates were the ones with Schröder in it.

[minionofmidas]

German commentators agreed that Merkel had her weakest point when it came to the NSA affair, where she acted anything but convincingly.

It helps that that question was late in the debate.

[minionofmidas]

Le Monde concurs with the polls: a draw. Am I the only one surprised that Steinbruck didn't gaffe? Then again, he's basically run out of demographics to offend.

Pro tip from Peer Steinbrück for you: If you're a robotic nincompoop and are trying to combat the impression that you're a robotic nincompoop, debate an even more robotic nincompoop.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Whats the big deal about it ?

US politicians for example wear pins with the US flag all the time.

It looks silly.

And it actually looks like the flag of Belgium. ;-)

[minionofmidas]

I only watched snippets of the debate and didn't notice the thing. But didn't she wear that same Belgian talmi chain to some football event ages ago?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, at least Trittin accused Brüderle of lying.

[ERvND]

We'll see how this translates into the next election polls

There will be a small uptick (if at all), then they'll fall back to pre-debate levels. Debates have no significance at all.

[Franknburger]

The "3 smaller parties" debate was a disaster - crappy moderation, allowing the first half of the debate involving into a Gysi-Brüderle dialogue (actually, dialogue is the wrong term, it was more sort of two parallel monologues).
Again 50% of the time talking about pensions, while not even once mentioning family policy, NSA/privacy, transport/ infrastructure and the like. At least, tax and budget issues were touched, and we had a half-way serious discussion on the Euro.

[Rob Bloom]

It is well known that Sigmund Gottlieb is a partisan of CSU and the Merkel administration. But nevertheless I was surprised (and disgusted) how obviously he took side against Trittin and Gysi during today's debate, while he was supposed to be a neutral journalist.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Everybody knows that Gottlieb is a CSU hack, but this would not have been that much of a problem, if his counterpart Jörg Schönenborn from WDR acted like a reputable political journalist and not like a total coward without any clue by making basic mistakes and losing all authority throughout the programme.

Interesting that Brüderle was not able to capitalize on the partisanship. I knew he was a weak debater, but that weak? All that came out of his mouth was mumbling and platitudes, not even a message why to vote FDP (or should we consider the "the left parties will lay our country in ruins" to be an argument?)

[minionofmidas]

The man didn't get a glass of wine throughout the debate. He did pretty well considering he was DTing.










j/k, I didn't watch it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, at least it was a debate where the candidates still seemed to have a pulse, while Merkel and Steinbrück were more like in a coma. It is for this very reason why I'd prefer a five-party debate. Both major candidates would probably be afraid of disappearing in the crowd though. It still would be interestig to see how Merkel would handle Trittin and Gysi and how Steinbrück would handle Brüderle, and, uh, Gysi.

[minionofmidas]

Steinbrück vs Brüderle would have been the reasonable debate to have. Seeing as they're contending for the post of Merkel-enabler.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today is the Bavarian TV-debate. Seehofer (CSU) vs. Ude (SPD)

If someone wants you can see it on www.br.de It is 20:15 German time

[Tender Branson]

Today is the Bavarian TV-debate. Seehofer (CSU) vs. Ude (SPD)

If someone wants you can see it on www.br.de It is 20:15 German time

I will watch it.

Seehofer and the CSU will probably get ca. 50% again in the state election.

Ude also supports the wrong football club in Munich or Bayern ... TSV 1860 München - not Bayern München ...

[minionofmidas]

Ude also supports the wrong football club in Munich or Bayern ... TSV 1860 München - not Bayern München ...

That's actually the right club to support in Munich (hence his mayoral career there ) though not in exurbia.

New Forsa poll for the Hesse election shows CDU-FDP ahead by a point for the first time in ages. Granted, it's Forsa - whose previous poll from six weeks ago was the only one so far to show it tied - but evidently it's very necessary that the Left makes it over 5.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today is the Bavarian TV-debate. Seehofer (CSU) vs. Ude (SPD)

If someone wants you can see it on www.br.de It is 20:15 German time

I will watch it.

Seehofer and the CSU will probably get ca. 50% again in the state election.

Ude also supports the wrong football club in Munich or Bayern ... TSV 1860 München - not Bayern München ...

It's not very brave to predict a CSU victory in the  election ;-) The CSU could sell heroin to children and would still win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If those children were Turkish they'd probably gain votes amirite?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is in reference to... what?

Post immediate above.

[Hifly]

If those children were Turkish they'd probably gain votes amirite?

Yes, although this would work better as a vote-gainer in Saxony. Probably depends on the dosage offered, too.

[RogueBeaver]

Spiegel suggests high number of late deciders could force Merkel into a Grand.

[Tender Branson]

New ZDF/FGW poll out, all interviews conducted after the Merkel/Steinbrück debate:

41% CDU/CSU (no change compared with their pre-debate poll)
26% SPD (nc)
10% Greens (-2) !!! (lowest level since ... 4 years)
  8% Left (+1)
  6% FDP (nc)
  3% AfD (nc)
  6% Others (+1)

47-44 majority for CDU/CSU-FDP over SPD-Greens-Left.

[Franknburger]

I'll do a new "poll of polls" when the next infratest dimap (ARD) poll is out, which will probably be tonight or tomorrow morning. Nevertheless, recent polling agrees on the trends also shown by ZDF/FGW, namely stable black-yellow and SPD results, swing from Grüne to Linke, AfD slightly gaining traction. As to absolute figures, FGW is traditionally displaying a 'major party' bias.

In the meantime, let me draw your attention to some nice 2002-2009 maps on Spiegel online. This is the vote participation by electoral district in 2002 and 2009:



A few takeaways:
1. The East-West difference is obvious. Low participation in the East should primarily hurt the SPD, and might also indicate substantial opportunities for non-traditional parties, especially the AfD, to tap into the non-voter potential.
2. While in the West, low participation is primarily an urban problem, the opposite applies to the East. The maps are illustrating migration patterns - "Western" influx into the Berlin periphery and the larger Eastern cities, "Eastern" migration diluting vote participation, especially in Bavaria and along the former border.
3. The CSU is facing a vote participation problem that extends beyond "Eastern"  immigration, especially in the South-East around Passau. Again an opportunity for AfD, if they manage to get voters away from FW.
4. Schleswig-Holstein in 2009 suggests that state elections held in parallel with the federal election can boost participation. Considering that Hesse (especially Northern Hesse) is a SPD stronghold, this is good news for the SPD.

[palandio]

Good observations. I would add the following points:
ad 2.: The influx into the Berlin periphery and cities like Jena, Dresden etc. is not only "Western". I think that the Eastern demographics are gradually segregating, i.e. those who get attractive jobs move where the jobs are (i.e. Western Germany and Eastern university cities) and the rest stays where they are. The new Eastern-born middle class will likely exhibit the same turnout as their Western counterparts. That also means that Eastern migration to the West is only to a small extent responsible for declining turnout imo.
ad 3. The first map is about 2002, when in Bavaria their was a strong "Stoiber effect" that led to higher turnout in favor of the CSU. So a decline in 2009 had to be expected (damaging also the CSU, differently from the rest of Germany, where the CDU held up much better). Nevertheless low turnout in Eastern Bavaria is really an interesting phenomenon, because there are no other rural areas in the West with similarly low turnout. Maybe we need to dig deep into historic collective psychology. Eastern Bavaria has historically been a very poor area with a high voting potential for non-left-wing opposition parties like the anti-clerical Bavarian Peasants League, the separatist Bavaria Party and now the Free Voters. I would welcome further suggestions.
5. The areas with the highest turnout in the West are mostly suburban; if they are rural they are at least close to some big economic hub(exception: Münsterland). Many rural areas exhibit rather mediocre turnout. When it comes to the cities itself we can can observe a large divide within every big West German city. The more well-off areas have very high turnout, like the suburbs, the poorer quarters have low turnout.
6. Electoral districts with particularly low turnout in the West (other than Eastern Bavaria):
Duisburg II, Essen III, Gelsenkirchen (these are part of an economically problematic belt that runs from Northern/Western Duisburg to Northern Dortmund)
Hamburg-Bergedorf-Harburg (contains quarters like Harburg and Wilhelmsburg)
Mönchengladbach (I don't know enough)
The city of Augsburg (Particularly high percentage of Soviet-born Germans)

[Franknburger]

When it comes to the cities itself we can can observe a large divide within every big West German city. The more well-off areas have very high turnout, like the suburbs, the poorer quarters have low turnout.
6. Electoral districts with particularly low turnout in the West (other than Eastern Bavaria):
Duisburg II, Essen III, Gelsenkirchen (these are part of an economically problematic belt that runs from Northern/Western Duisburg to Northern Dortmund)
Hamburg-Bergedorf-Harburg (contains quarters like Harburg and Wilhelmsburg)
Mönchengladbach (I don't know enough)
The city of Augsburg (Particularly high percentage of Soviet-born Germans)

You can add north-western Bremen (the old port/shipyard quarters), Nuremberg, Mannheim and Cologne (especially in 2002) to the list. All traditional SPD strongholds...

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Tender - is this a Bavarian phenomenon, or does it continue on the Austrian side of the Inn? And  - if any experts on Czech elections are following here - what is the situation in the Bohemian forest like? The latest presidential elections are obviously no good benchmark, since they had a local candidate running (Schwarzenberg)..

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You are probably right here. When it comes to migration, the Grüne maps are a good indicator. In 2002 in the West, the Grüne vote, though already having started to get exurban, was still primarily urban (plus - obviously- university towns such as Gottingen and Marburg). In 2009, the exurban spread has become obvious. By comparison, Grüne growth in the East over that period has primarily been urban, which suggests a demographically younger base there. Berlin is an exception, probably combining the "western" suburbanisation trend with the "young eastern" urban migration.