JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mostly agree, although that's not anywhere near 1994. Even if the GOP manages to win everything pure tossup and beyond, that's only +19 and not even halfway to winning the House. Also don't understand how Cao can only be "Lean Democratic" unless it's on the principle of not having any seats of the other party be anything greater than Lean.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama almost certainly carried KS-03 if I'm reading it right. It appears Wynadotte county had a slightly larger margin for Obama than Johnson did for McCain, and though we don't know how the portion of Douglas in it voted exactly, it obviously was for Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Chabot was an impeachment manager for Clinton too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think it's worth noting that MA-10 is still a D+5 seat. The only Republican held seats with a higher Dem PVI are DE-AL, IL-10, HI-01 and LA-02. Which could all easily fall this year to boot. Now it ending up the seat with the highest Dem PVI held by a Republican certainly is possible, but it is a good example of why it's not quite a gimme.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I will say that, as tired a statement as it is, PA-12 showed us that candidates do matter. If the Republicans had nominated strong (or, hell, competent) candidates in ID-01 and AL-02, we wouldn't even be talking about those districts, because they'd be as good as gone for the Dems. All the money in the world poured in from outside can only provide so much polish for some of the Republican turds running.

Can you explain just why then  Sharron "the candidate from the innermost ring of Dantian hell" Angle is running even with Reid then?

Because her opponent is Reid. Any other Democrat in the state would be destroying her soundly.

Of course rather amusingly, facing her is the only reason Reid has a chance.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How did the primary shift MA-10? The far more conservative candidate won the Republican nomination if I am reading stuff right.