Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Vice President Christian Man]

A shame, Lula ran one of the worst campaigns of all time offering literally nothing new but a return to a past that no Brazilian really wanted.

What is worst is that in Brazil, with the worst pr disaster of all time as president and degrading living standards; instead of creating a new path for most to trek the Afro-Brazilian, indigenous, LGBTQ+, and working class leaders among others sold out to an even bigger degree and to a wider scope than is usually seen. For what, a domestic agribusiness and multinational sellout who was destined to win irregardless or their endorsement?

It’s good for the world and for most Brazilians that he is gone, but a future where they move into better living standards is now murky with going to trails passed long ago to take us to this point.

This part reminds me a lot of Biden's campaign. Only difference is that unlike the media narrative, Bolsonaro was not the Trump of the tropics. Pinochet is a much closer comparison but a laissez-faire Durante is a closer comparison to contemporary times.

[Vice President Christian Man]

https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1587162768658075648

Thank God, hope this is true.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

"the lungs of the planet".

I already heard this one. This is fake news. Search better.

??

It's an extremely common talking point. It's a huge oversemplification of extremely complex global climate patterns, of course, but the underlying point that the Amazon is pretty freaking important to the planet's ecosystem is pretty universally agreed-upon aside from complete cranks.

[Red Velvet]

https://www.twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1587147736910303232?cxt=HHwWgMDUia...
Lmao I am DEAD with how Macron is the most Anti-Bolsonaro world leader that there is. After congratulating his victory he’s now also posting videos of him talking with Lula.

These posting of pictures or videos together is something I expected from left-wing Latin American leaders and here we have a French liberal centrist stanning Lula. Or better saying, stanning Bolsonaro’s loss, for obvious reasons lol

Political gossip and drama is so much more fun than celebrity gossip and drama!

The only leader who surpassed Macron’s fanboy level of excitement IMO was the president of Argentina Alberto Fernández, who traveled here to Brazil this Monday to meet with Lula after his win.

I hope Lula really invests hard in rebuilding relations with our closest ally after the horrible and disrespectful treatment Bolsonaro gave to Argentina. It SHOULD be the 1st stop of his international presidency official State travels.

[buritobr]

There is a tradition in Brazil: the first trip of the elected president is to Argentina. Bolsonaro broke this tradition even when Argentina was ruled by his ally Mauricio Macri. Bolsonaro chose Chile as the destination of his first trip, because Sebastian Pinera was even closer to him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't have a lot of good to say about Macron, but I do honestly appreciate that he's a bit more willing to talk straight than a lot of European leaders. Mealy-mouthed diplomatic platitudes are a plague on this continent and I suspect they're a big part of why nobody takes us seriously. At least Macron is making it clear where we stand here, and I think that's to our mutual benefit.

[Alben Barkley]

So looks like Brazil, a country that was under a military dictatorship within living memory, will have a more peaceful transition of power than the United States did.

Very sad.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He lives in Sao Paulo but his background is Northeastern and he's universally seen as fundamentally a Northeastern politician, in much the way that Woodrow Wilson was fundamentally a Southern politician despite having been Governor of New Jersey--or perhaps a somewhat more intense version of Obama's relationship with Hawaii, since Lula apparently left the Northeast very young.

Harold Wilson and the West Riding of Yorkshire would be another example. Left Milnsbridge as a teenager, but always kept that Huddersfield accent, poor man.

[Red Velvet]

So looks like Brazil, a country that was under a military dictatorship within living memory, will have a more peaceful transition of power than the United States did.

Very sad.

Sad for you, maybe? I’m happy we didn’t get serious coup attempts, invasions or takeovers of power just to make the US a bit less insecure about themselves lol

This is only the day after though. Still two whole months stuck with Bolsonaro. I will only be comfortable after Lula assumes.

[Alben Barkley]

So looks like Brazil, a country that was under a military dictatorship within living memory, will have a more peaceful transition of power than the United States did.

Very sad.

For you, maybe? I’m happy we didn’t get serious coup attempts, invasions or takeovers of power just to make the US a bit less insecure about themselves lol

I just mean it's sad that the world's oldest active democracy is on the rocks worse than a developing nation and young democracy in a region notorious for coups and dictatorships. It's obviously good for Brazil.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1587162768658075648

Thank God, hope this is true.

https://twitter.com/rkrahenbuhl/status/1587167284337975297

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Happy to report to Atlas that when I took my shower-bath earlier, as I was putting my clothes on when I was done, I began to sing and hum LULA LA and then shouted ORDEM E PROGRESSO.

[Mike88]

So, Bolsonaro may be silent and missing, but, the world moves on:

- Lula's campaign is already in contact to initiate the transition and talks with Bolsonaro's Chief of Staff have started;

- Bolsonaro's current VP, Hamilton Mourão, had a telephone conversation with VP elect Geraldo Alckmin in which Mourão expressed his availability to help in the transition and invited Alckmin to visit his office, Jaburu Palace;

[OSR stands with Israel]

So looks like Brazil, a country that was under a military dictatorship within living memory, will have a more peaceful transition of power than the United States did.

Very sad.

For you, maybe? I’m happy we didn’t get serious coup attempts, invasions or takeovers of power just to make the US a bit less insecure about themselves lol

I just mean it's sad that the world's oldest active democracy is on the rocks worse than a developing nation and young democracy in a region notorious for coups and dictatorships. It's obviously good for Brazil.

Keep in mind Brazil does not have elected officials be part of the certification process like we do , which imo is the core of the issue here .

[Red Velvet]

So looks like Brazil, a country that was under a military dictatorship within living memory, will have a more peaceful transition of power than the United States did.

Very sad.

For you, maybe? I’m happy we didn’t get serious coup attempts, invasions or takeovers of power just to make the US a bit less insecure about themselves lol

I just mean it's sad that the world's oldest active democracy is on the rocks worse than a developing nation and young democracy in a region notorious for coups and dictatorships. It's obviously good for Brazil.

Maintaining democracy is also about renovation and embracing change when necessary to fit the new needs if you ask me.

The fact it’s so old and some aspects are identical to when it started should be wake up call. I get that there’s fear of change in US and it’s also not something easy to do, but at least serious conversation on how to improve and shield democracy should be happening and yet you don’t see this.

People just hope Trump will be forever defeated without any need to change the system. That will sooner or later backfire. If not with Trump, someone else in the future.

[SlavicOrthodoxWolf]

Does anyone have exit polls about how different demographics voted? I can't find that on the Wikipedia article.

[RicardoCampos]

What's with the big bunch of municipalities closer to the Uruguay border voting for Lula?

It's not just municipalities close to Uruguay, Lula won in vast areas in Rio Grande do Sul.

Rio Grande do Sul was supposed to be a swing-state. The state voted for Lula from 1989 to 2002, electing right-wing and left-wing governors alternately. In 2006, with the Mensalão scandal, he voted for the right. In 2010, Dilma Roussef (PT) won in the 1st round in RS and lost in the 2nd round with a difference of 1%. In that same election, Tarso Genro (PT) was elected governor in the 1st round (believe it or not).

This was the last satisfactory election for the left in RS. As of 2014, RS left the alternation of left/right and succumbed to the right-wing wave of the Center-South of Brazil.

Rio Grande do Sul does not have the tradition of being rightist or leftist, it has always been a polarized state, in all spheres and in politics as well.

Just as there is a lot of ignorance on the part of foreigners in relation to Brazil, there is also a lot of ignorance on the part of Brazilians in relation to the South, as if everything were the same. It is common in Brazilian newspapers to speak of “the Bolsonarista South” or even specifying Rio Grande do Sul as a Bolsonaro stronghold when RS was not even in 2018 among the states with the most votes for Bolsonaro.

As an example, in 2018 Bolsonaro made 63% in RS, but 67% in SP and 70% in RJ.
That year it was 56% in RS, 55% in SP and 57% in RJ.

And then there are southeasterners who have the nerve to associate RS with Bolsonarist strength, supremacism, xenophobia, etc., but they don't look in their own mirror. They forget that RS supported Jango's inauguration before the military dictatorship, had a black governor in 1990 (despite the population being 80% white), a syndicalist governor who had lunch with the landless movement in 1998 and now has the first openly elected governor gay in Brazil (I don't even like this one, but anyway...). Former president Dilma Roussef (PT), from Minas Gerais, had a political career in Rio Grande do Sul. The state also had its expressive rightists.

The fact is that Rio Grande do Sul is contained in the right-wing wave of the Center-South of recent years in Brazil. Even though it's a pretty self-sufficient state, it's impossible to be immune to influences.

Rio Grande do Sul is a very different state from Santa Catarina and Paraná. The state has experienced many wars and internal conflicts and has resulted in a tradition of extreme polarization. That's how it is in football, in the media and in politics. It always has 2 sides.

In the legislature, the left (still) has substantial weight in the state. Paulo Paim (PT-RS) is the only senator in office in Brazil who was elected for the 3rd time in a row and his last re-election was in the Bolsonarista wave of 2018. The PT has the largest bench in the state and federal chambers of RS. The presidency of the state legislative assembly operates on a rotating basis between the 4 largest benches and the PT has the right to stay for 1 year.

I don't have exact numbers, but I dare say that if it weren't for Serra Gaucha, Lula could have won in the rest of the state. Serra Gaúcha is very Bolsonista and has a very great cultural proximity to Serra Catarinense, that is, they are geographically the same area. Santa Catarina is among the most Bolsonarist states in Brazil. The problem is that Bolsonaro had a very high vote associated with low abstention in Serra Gaúcha, it was impossible for the rest of the state to balance with these conditions.

Another interpretation is that Rio Grande do Sul is a state contrary to national consensus. When Lula lost elections, the state voted for him. Then, Brazil started to vote for the PT and the state moved to the right. Can the state turn left again in a few years? I don't know...

If RS has a tradition of being a polarized state, just as the PT replaced Leonel Brizola in the past, this gap on the left will be replaced by another “left”, and I believe that this change will unfortunately be for the worse.

Unfortunately, there are no young left-wing leaders in RS and this has been replaced by an identity wave, with many politicians concerned with representative causes, but without looking at the poor population in general. An example is the reelected governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB). The guy is an extreme neo-liberal rightist, but people see him as a progressive just because he's gay and has a nice speech, while cutting teachers' salaries and trying to sell state water companies.

Unfortunately the left in RS looks like it will be replaced by this in the future...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's with the big bunch of municipalities closer to the Uruguay border voting for Lula?

It's not just municipalities close to Uruguay, Lula won in vast areas in Rio Grande do Sul.

Rio Grande do Sul was supposed to be a swing-state. The state voted for Lula from 1989 to 2002, electing right-wing and left-wing governors alternately. In 2006, with the Mensalão scandal, he voted for the right. In 2010, Dilma Roussef (PT) won in the 1st round in RS and lost in the 2nd round with a difference of 1%. In that same election, Tarso Genro (PT) was elected governor in the 1st round (believe it or not).

This was the last satisfactory election for the left in RS. As of 2014, RS left the alternation of left/right and succumbed to the right-wing wave of the Center-South of Brazil.

Rio Grande do Sul does not have the tradition of being rightist or leftist, it has always been a polarized state, in all spheres and in politics as well.

Just as there is a lot of ignorance on the part of foreigners in relation to Brazil, there is also a lot of ignorance on the part of Brazilians in relation to the South, as if everything were the same. It is common in Brazilian newspapers to speak of “the Bolsonarista South” or even specifying Rio Grande do Sul as a Bolsonaro stronghold when RS was not even in 2018 among the states with the most votes for Bolsonaro.

As an example, in 2018 Bolsonaro made 63% in RS, but 67% in SP and 70% in RJ.
That year it was 56% in RS, 55% in SP and 57% in RJ.

And then there are southeasterners who have the nerve to associate RS with Bolsonarist strength, supremacism, xenophobia, etc., but they don't look in their own mirror. They forget that RS supported Jango's inauguration before the military dictatorship, had a black governor in 1990 (despite the population being 80% white), a syndicalist governor who had lunch with the landless movement in 1998 and now has the first openly elected governor gay in Brazil (I don't even like this one, but anyway...). Former president Dilma Roussef (PT), from Minas Gerais, had a political career in Rio Grande do Sul. The state also had its expressive rightists.

The fact is that Rio Grande do Sul is contained in the right-wing wave of the Center-South of recent years in Brazil. Even though it's a pretty self-sufficient state, it's impossible to be immune to influences.

Rio Grande do Sul is a very different state from Santa Catarina and Paraná. The state has experienced many wars and internal conflicts and has resulted in a tradition of extreme polarization. That's how it is in football, in the media and in politics. It always has 2 sides.

In the legislature, the left (still) has substantial weight in the state. Paulo Paim (PT-RS) is the only senator in office in Brazil who was elected for the 3rd time in a row and his last re-election was in the Bolsonarista wave of 2018. The PT has the largest bench in the state and federal chambers of RS. The presidency of the state legislative assembly operates on a rotating basis between the 4 largest benches and the PT has the right to stay for 1 year.

I don't have exact numbers, but I dare say that if it weren't for Serra Gaucha, Lula could have won in the rest of the state. Serra Gaúcha is very Bolsonista and has a very great cultural proximity to Serra Catarinense, that is, they are geographically the same area. Santa Catarina is among the most Bolsonarist states in Brazil. The problem is that Bolsonaro had a very high vote associated with low abstention in Serra Gaúcha, it was impossible for the rest of the state to balance with these conditions.

Another interpretation is that Rio Grande do Sul is a state contrary to national consensus. When Lula lost elections, the state voted for him. Then, Brazil started to vote for the PT and the state moved to the right. Can the state turn left again in a few years? I don't know...

If RS has a tradition of being a polarized state, just as the PT replaced Leonel Brizola in the past, this gap on the left will be replaced by another “left”, and I believe that this change will unfortunately be for the worse.

Unfortunately, there are no young left-wing leaders in RS and this has been replaced by an identity wave, with many politicians concerned with representative causes, but without looking at the poor population in general. An example is the reelected governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB). The guy is an extreme neo-liberal rightist, but people see him as a progressive just because he's gay and has a nice speech, while cutting teachers' salaries and trying to sell state water companies.

Unfortunately the left in RS looks like it will be replaced by this in the future...

That was very detailed of a reply, thank you.
Not to overdose on US comparisons, but it really reminds me of Wisconsin.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So, Bolsonaro may be silent and missing, but, the world moves on:

- Lula's campaign is already in contact to initiate the transition and talks with Bolsonaro's Chief of Staff have started;

- Bolsonaro's current VP, Hamilton Mourão, had a telephone conversation with VP elect Geraldo Alckmin in which Mourão expressed his availability to help in the transition and invited Alckmin to visit his office, Jaburu Palace;

Would it be fair to say that Mourão cuts a somewhat Pencean "terrible as well but not as completely narcissistic and divorced from reality as the top of the ticket" figure?

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe Bolsonaro decided that his best interest is to wait for 2026.

[RicardoCampos]

I know, it's extremely early for that, but is it possible Jair Bolsonaro runs again in 2026? I think it might also become an issue whether Lula runs again or not, due to advanced age. So basically this is also a post-2020 Biden-Trump situation, Brazil edition.

in this case it's an identical problem, the left doesn't even have a leadership equal to Lula and he certainly won't run at 81 years old

[RicardoCampos]

I'm sure this has been explained many times here but is there a reason that the biggest states with metropolitan centers like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, or even Brasilia vote quite right of the country? I feel like their equivalents in the US (CA, NY, DC) are core to the Democratic Party...

Likewise, how has PT held up in the NE? Is this simply a matter of class based politics remaining as the main dividing line? I'm just surprised that a "fascist" president would get so much support from the "educated elite" sections of the country - but maybe I just don't understand the inhabitants of Southern Brazil.

by coincidence, I answered exactly that in post 1897

looks like i was unknowingly replying to a troll LOL so if i had read your post before i would have replied directly to you

read because it has a very complete description

[Middle-aged Europe]

Do we even know that Bolsonaro is still alive or in the country or something? I mean has anyone actually seen the dude since sunday?

[PSOL]

Bolsonaro is done, without being president he can’t dole out goodie packages as much. He’s also the most incompetent of the fascists in office. PT isn’t faring much better, with the gerontocracy aging too much and being practically stale. The latter’s satellite parties are in periods of crisis or stagnation.

Lula will not be a popular president for long after the honeymoon period, going with how hated Boric is and how there’s no real path or message for PT/Lula anymore, he will be a lame duck. The economy is still going to be bad, and PT has less to work with in arguing for much both in ability and in political want. He also cannot change the real destiny of demographics of evangelicals having tons of babies and many conversions out of opportunism.

[RicardoCampos]

My understanding from following this thread is it's Class + Race + Pentecostalism + Lula being from the Northeast + Bolsonaro being from Rio de Janeiro state

I thought Lula was from Sao Paulo, not from the Northeast?

was born in the Northeast, moved to SP as a young man to work. The poor people of the Northeast identify a lot with him