Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[RicardoCampos]

We can say that Bolsonaro will start at the front, so to facilitate the follow-up of today's elections, based on my own feeling:

• Bolsonaro >60%: if start with Bolsonaro with more than 60%, Bolsonaro wins
• Bolsonaro <55%: if start with Bolsonaro with less than 55%, Lula wins in the end
• Bolsonaro >55% and <60%: if start with Bolsonaro between 55% and 60%, the result is unpredictable

“Start” in what sense? 5% of the vote counted? 10%? 1%?

5% is a pretty safe margin

[Mike88]

Polls have now closed in Lisbon, Porto and Faro.

[parochial boy]

Being parochial, apparently the police had to intervene in the polling station in Geneva after Bolsonaro supporters started getting aggressive. Happened in the first round as well.

(typically the Brazilians here vote fash, but Lula actually won Geneva with 50,7% today, compared to Bolsonaro getting 64% four years ago)

[RicardoCampos]

A couple of questions:

How do the overseas results so far compare to 2018?

Given that the voting & counting is all electronic, what would explain why some areas take longer to declare than others, as more votes counted shouldn't equate to taking longer to count?

Presumably it's just a matter of running the same procedure everywhere, are the votes counted at polling stations?

Thanks

The overseas results are not so representative for Brazil. It is a continental country and the internal politics have a great weight.

Some areas in Brazil are more developed than others. Computational processing power and network capacity are factors that make data travel faster. The pro-Lula vote coincides with many poorer areas that have this lower technological efficiency and therefore take longer to reach the central.
There is another reason, which is the queues, which are more common on the outskirts of large centers which, in some cases, can also coincide with the pro-Lula vote.
I also have a hypothesis that poor people vote later because they work more on election day, especially informal workers, while the middle class likes to vote in the morning and go out to lunch afterwards. As votes are sent in a linear way, this can make a difference. But this is my hypothesis and I would also need to see the scope of this phenomenon.

[Mike88]

France:

82.9% Lula (7,885 votes)
17.1% Bolsonaro (1,622)

Italy:

55.3% Lula (5,810 votes)
44.7% Bolsonaro (4,698)

Switzerland:

52.4% Lula (5,538 votes)
47.6% Bolsonaro (5,038)

Netherlands:

78.4% Lula (4,511 votes)
21.6% Bolsonaro (1,242)

[parochial boy]

This story about the police in the Nordests seems to be snowballing. Could lead to the polling stations being closed later so that people can actually vote. And if extending opening times to let voters in the North East  goes in tandem with a narrow Lula victory, well then you can imagine how that will go down with Bolsonaro supporters...

[Double Carpet]

This story about the police in the Nordests seems to be snowballing. Could lead to the polling stations being closed later so that people can actually vote. And if extending opening times to let voters in the North East  goes in tandem with a narrow Lula victory, well then you can imagine how that will go down with Bolsonaro supporters...

Well a conspiracy theorist might say that the police were acting on orders from Bolsonaro or his supporters...

[Mike88]

In Faro, Portugal, Lula got 52% and Bolsonaro 48%.

[Double Carpet]

A couple of questions:

How do the overseas results so far compare to 2018?

Given that the voting & counting is all electronic, what would explain why some areas take longer to declare than others, as more votes counted shouldn't equate to taking longer to count?

Presumably it's just a matter of running the same procedure everywhere, are the votes counted at polling stations?

Thanks

The overseas results are not so representative for Brazil. It is a continental country and the internal politics have a great weight.

Some areas in Brazil are more developed than others. Computational processing power and network capacity are factors that make data travel faster. The pro-Lula vote coincides with many poorer areas that have this lower technological efficiency and therefore take longer to reach the central.
There is another reason, which is the queues, which are more common on the outskirts of large centers which, in some cases, can also coincide with the pro-Lula vote.
I also have a hypothesis that poor people vote later because they work more on election day, especially informal workers, while the middle class likes to vote in the morning and go out to lunch afterwards. As votes are sent in a linear way, this can make a difference. But this is my hypothesis and I would also need to see the scope of this phenomenon.

Thanks for this - it would be interesting to know how the overseas results compare with 2018, even if they are a tiny fraction of the overall vote.

I certainly get that some polling stations might stay open later due to queues, but wouldn't have thought that IT variations would make that much difference? But might be wrong.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can someone post round one results for the countries that have reported their round 2 results? The comparison would I think be helpful to all of us.

[Mike88]

This story about the police in the Nordests seems to be snowballing. Could lead to the polling stations being closed later so that people can actually vote. And if extending opening times to let voters in the North East  goes in tandem with a narrow Lula victory, well then you can imagine how that will go down with Bolsonaro supporters...

Well a conspiracy theorist might say that the police were acting on orders from Bolsonaro or his supporters...

Some media outlets are actually suggesting that it was discussed in the Presidential Palace. Seriously.

[SnowLabrador]

Jesus Christ, it's today. If Bolsonaro wins, it's game over for all of us. Don't screw it up, Brazil.

[Mike88]

In Faro, Portugal, Lula got 52% and Bolsonaro 48%.

Porto: Lula 64.8%; Bolsonaro 35.2%.

[Red Velvet]

In Faro, Portugal, Lula got 52% and Bolsonaro 48%.

1st round was Lula 49% Bolsonaro 41% (Faro only)

70% transfer to Bolsonaro, 30% to Lula

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This story about the police in the Nordests seems to be snowballing. Could lead to the polling stations being closed later so that people can actually vote. And if extending opening times to let voters in the North East  goes in tandem with a narrow Lula victory, well then you can imagine how that will go down with Bolsonaro supporters...

Well a conspiracy theorist might say that the police were acting on orders from Bolsonaro or his supporters...

Some media outlets are actually suggesting that it was discussed in the Presidential Palace. Seriously.

Comes to show the amount of trust that Bolsonaro has fostered.

[RicardoCampos]

It must probably be a bigger problem of the network, because some areas in the interior of Brazil in the states of the Northeast and North are very isolated and the connection makes them arrive at the end of the queue at Central. It's not so much a matter of how long it takes to reach the destination, but where in the queue the votes arrive.

[Red Velvet]

This story about the police in the Nordests seems to be snowballing. Could lead to the polling stations being closed later so that people can actually vote. And if extending opening times to let voters in the North East  goes in tandem with a narrow Lula victory, well then you can imagine how that will go down with Bolsonaro supporters...

Well a conspiracy theorist might say that the police were acting on orders from Bolsonaro or his supporters...

Some media outlets are actually suggesting that it was discussed in the Presidential Palace. Seriously.

Duh. Bolsonarist channels were spreading in their groups that they should go out to vote in the morning, in order to assure their people wouldn’t suffer with the delays being deliberately caused by the police to rise the abstention number.

They knew this was happening even before the vote started. It’s a project to try to steal the election since it’s projected to be close.

[Mike88]

In Faro, Portugal, Lula got 52% and Bolsonaro 48%.

Porto: Lula 64.8%; Bolsonaro 35.2%.

Lisbon:

64.5% Lula (12,872 votes)
35.5% Bolsonaro (7,085)

Trying to find the Faro results.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Traffic police as a means of attempted vote-suppression is... a new one.

[Mike88]

No extention of voting, it was now announced by the TSE chair, Alexandre Moraes. He said that the buses were indeed stopped, in some areas, but that they arrived at polling stations and voters were able to cast a ballot.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If this stunt somehow works in stopping a Lula victory when all votes are counted, then Bolsonaro should...should...be removed from office, right?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/benjaminfogel/status/1586768165245227009?s=46&t=R2CaMn-t...

[Mike88]

Election night coverage:

Globo:
https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/ao-vivo/segundo-turno-eleicoes.ghtml
(Live feed in the link)

Record:

Band:

SBT:

CNN Brasil:

Results links: https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/apuracao/presidente.ghtml

[Pivaru]

Just voted, the precinct in which I vote was a lot emptier this when compared to the first round, I guess because now people only had to vote for president.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Can someone post round one results for the countries that have reported their round 2 results? The comparison would I think be helpful to all of us.

Globo has a tally:

New Zealand : Lula, 389 votes (70.34%); Jair Bolsonaro, 164 votes (29.66%);
South Korea: Lula, 126 votes (64.29%); Jair Bolsonaro, 70 votes (35.71%);
Singapore : Lula, 230 votes (63.71%); Jair Bolsonaro, 131 votes (36.29%);
Taiwan: Bolsonaro, 132 votes (56.65%); Lula, 101 votes (43.35%);
France : Lula, 7,885 votes (82.94%); Bolsonaro, 1,622 votes (17.06%)
Greece : Bolsonaro, 242 votes (55.63%); Lula, 193 (44.37%);
Finland : Lula 444 votes (73.15%); Bolsonaro 163 votes (26.85%);
Kenya: Lula: 35 votes (58.33%); Bolsonaro: 25 votes (41.67%);
Egypt: Lula: 46 votes (66.67%); Bolsonaro: 23 votes (33.33%).

If this stunt somehow works in stopping a Lula victory when all votes are counted, then Bolsonaro should...should...be removed from office, right?

Only if the military ODs on Viagra.